The population figures for 2020 announced by the mainland recently have been widely questioned by the outside world.

The following is the article “How many newborns will there be in 2020 from four different perspectives? Article.

The month-long delayed population data is finally released.

On May 11, the Bureau of Statistics announced the data of the seventh national census, the total population of 1,141,780,000, with 253,380,000 people aged 0 to 14, accounting for 17.95%; 894,380,000 people aged 15 to 59, accounting for 63.35%; 264,200,000 people aged 60 and above, accounting for 18.70% (of which, 19,064,000 people aged 65 and above). The number of people aged 60 and above was 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70% (of which, 190.64 million were aged 65 and above, accounting for 13.50%).

The proportion of the population aged 0 to 14 increased by 1.35% compared with 2010, the population aged 60 and above increased by 5.44% compared with 2010, and the population aged 15 to 59 decreased by 6.79 percentage points compared with 2010.

For the voucher column, the proportion of the population aged 0 to 14 years rose sharply, somewhat unexpectedly.

Side note, perhaps more newborns will be born in 2020. Here is the estimated newborn data for 2020 by four calibers.

Original picture

1) From the Ministry of Public Security data, 2019 data, the Ministry of Public Security announced data of 11.79 million newborns, the Statistics Bureau announced data of 14.67 million newborns. The difference is 2.88 million. 2020, the Ministry of Public Security announced data newborns for 10.035 million, to 2019 difference as a reference, through the Ministry of Public Security data can be roughly predicted that the 2020 newborns about 13 million.

(2) from 0 to 14 years of age accounted for; statistical yearbook 2010 to 2019 data, 14-year-old population accounted for a very constant number of the total population, hovering between 16.4% to 16.9%, the 10-year average value of 16.62%. However, a jump in the 2020 data occurred (17.95%). This explosive growth may be caused by the birth of newborns. This calculates that the newborn growth in 2020 is more than previous years (141,178 * 1.33%), which translates to 18.77 million more newborns than previous years. Referring to the 2019 newborn base of 14.67 million, the discounted 2020 newborns are 33.44 million.

(3) From the total number of people increased, the population in 2020 compared to 2019 increased by 11.73 million, the new population is nothing but from the newborn population minus the death population, of which the number of deaths changes very little each year (about a few hundred thousand new people each year), we can directly use the data of 2019 (10 million). From this projection, 21.73 million newborns in 2020.

(4) from the number of births year by year, the total number of people aged 0 to 14 in 2020, minus the number of newborns in the previous 13 years (also have to add the number of premature death, ignored for the time being), you can directly derive the number of newborns born in 2020. 7 Pu data, the population aged 0 to 14 years is 253.38 million, the number of newborns born in the previous 13 years is 211.54 million, resulting in the number of newborns in 2020 43.84 million people. If we take into account the number of accidental deaths of 0-14 year olds, the number of newborns in 2020 will be even higher.

Using the data from the Ministry of Public Security as a reference, the number of newborns in 2020 is estimated to be 13 million.

Using the data from the Bureau of Statistics as a reference, the estimated average number of newborns (averaged over the three measurement methods) is 33 million.

Disclaimer: The census data are for every decade in the Statistical Yearbook, while the rest of the years are projected data from the annual population sample survey.

The projection in this paper is only a simple mathematical calculation, and does not involve statistical rigor.

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