The world’s political changes, the government’s inability to fight the Epidemic, the local social unrest, are causing economic difficulties, Hong Kong people suddenly lost confidence in the future, as early as the poll estimates that about 5 Hong Kong people in 1 want to emigrate! In fact, the first quarter of the second-hand property market has been recorded at least more than 50 immigrants selling cases, many of the owners in order to seek cash as soon as possible, at low market prices, and even eclipse the sale of goods. The industry pointed out that, because the economy is not clear, the outflow of capital to find a way out, the middle class immigrants to sell property at a price, the property market is destined to “no run”.
real estate agents believe that many Hong Kong people’s main assets from self-occupied property, if you want to move to foreign countries, the primary sale of buildings to cash, the beginning of this year, during the slow market, the second-hand put on the amount but increased, one of the reasons is the addition of many immigrants to sell the source of the property. In order to speed up the sale of buildings with immigration applications, some blue-chip housing estates or new building owners, more will pay 10% of the price of the building hot move tax shipments.
Recently, a large housing estate in Ma On Shan, Newport City, Block R, a medium-sized two-room units, practical area of about 503 square feet, the original owner in 2019 to 7.35 million yuan to buy, because of the rush to immigrate, put on the market for only one month, that is, split the price of nearly one million yuan, sold for 7.85 million yuan, per square foot price of about 15,606 yuan, 4 to 5% lower market price, together with the price of 10% additional stamp duty and other fees, the actual need to eclipse more than 700,000 yuan.
Even if the purchase of the new plate owners, in order to cash out are eclipsed live away. Early this year to receive the building of Tseung Kwan O LP6 Block 1 low-rise two-room units, the original owner plans to immigrate, I believe the unit in “not lived”, that is, split the price to 7.76 million yuan to sell, even the spicy move tax and make the fee material eclipse hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Hong Kong Island blue-chip housing estate Quarry Bay Taikoo Shing Huashan Court a low-level three-bedroom household, the original owner intends to immigrate, as early as last year, the opening price of $ 14.5 million to put on the market, until last month, a cumulative split of 1.9 million yuan to $ 12.6 million sold. As a result of the unit in 2019 when the name was transferred, the sale of the building that is to pay more than a million dollars in additional stamp duty. Centaline Zhao Hongyun pointed out that the project last year, about 490 put on the market, it is estimated that at that Time accounted for about 5% of the immigrants put on the market. The housing estate in the past three months, although recorded more than 120 sales transactions, but the number of transactions still increased to nearly 510, the proportion of immigrants to 7 to 8%, including a two-room Golden Star Court is the king of similar transactions, now even the lease price of $ 12 million.
The same belongs to the Hong Kong Island blue-chip plate Ap Lei Chau Haiyi Peninsula, there are now about 10 immigrants put on the plate. Hong Kong property Deng Huihao said, of which Block 21, a large four-room units with sea views, practical area of about 871 square feet, is now offered at $ 15.5 million, as the owner intends to immigrate, is expected to have room for negotiation again. It is reported that a large bank online valuation of the unit is higher than the opening price.
In fact, many immigrants to attract customers at affordable prices, often lower than the market price. Tuen Mun second-hand building has always been an indicator of the car, Chi On Home Su Yong Yao pointed out that the bank recently contributed to the sale, accounting for about 20% of the sale of immigrants, the current release also accounts for nearly 20%. This type of unit bargaining sometimes up to 5 to 10%, earlier there was a Huifeng Park immigrant plate, the original opening price of 6.7 million to 6.8 million yuan, eventually reduced to 6.28 million yuan sold, but the same type of unit to do the price has recently exceeded 7 million yuan.
Other areas are due to the influx of immigrants and there are cases of price drops. Tsuen Wan Tsuen Tak Garden A low-floor units, practical area of about 306 square feet, earlier reduced 200,000 yuan, to 4.25 million yuan changed hands, the price per square foot about 13,889 yuan, about 7% lower than the market price. Even 10 million yuan HOS Mongkok Fulong Garden have flat sales, the plate 17 block low floor three-bedroom units, in the free market has been supplemented only 8.5 million yuan, recently the same type of unit floor price is rare below 9 million yuan, low market price of at least 5%.
Recall that Hong Kong public opinion survey during the 15th to 18th of this month, successfully interviewed 5,697 Hong Kong residents aged 12 or above online, found that as many as 21% of respondents said they had plans to leave Hong Kong permanently. With this projection, that is, up to 1.5 million people will emigrate.
The mid-priced properties are not up or down and difficult to ship]
Market participants believe that medium-priced properties will be subject to greater pressure due to the increase in immigration cases, the current property market is not as healthy as imagined, the price is unlikely to rise again.
Former cramming king, senior investors Wu Xiande that the ability to immigrate people are mostly 35 to 50 years old middle class, holding about 20 million to 35 million yuan worth of medium-priced properties, such units are not the top quality of luxury homes, new buyers and difficult to do mortgage, it is difficult to ship, individual to a significant price split to undertake. He pointed out that the wave of immigrants is one of the negative factors of the property market, the current immigrant population is not enough to make the property market collapse around, but will have a psychological impact on the market. Hong Kong property market has begun to be dominated by businessmen, gradually turned to the government, its policy to stabilize the market, naturally do not allow property prices are speculated high.
He believes that the current poor economy, high unemployment rate, and repeated epidemics, are not conducive to the development of the property market, and 3, 4 years ago sold new discs, in the spicy move to untie the sale of goods, most of the money to earn or even eclipse, reflecting the property prices have no chance of a big wave.
Veteran investors Wu Guanliu said that the community what to take the state of the people are there, but also heard that friends are applying for immigration, but different from the wave of immigrants before 1997, when most people “uproot” to sell property, this time “people move building not to move” more cases, leaving the property as a way back. Leave the property as a return to the back of the road, I believe it will not trigger a large-scale immigrant sales cases. Wu said that he did not intend to emigrate, if the assumption that the need to move, will not sell all the property, at least half of the retention of rent or back to self-occupation.
Hong Leong consulting and evaluation of the managing director Zhang Qiaochu pointed out that some owners have lost confidence in Hong Kong, choose to emigrate to sell their properties, and even nibble on the spicy tax eclipse to leave the field. If you look back at the wave of immigrants before 1997, when the public centrifugal although very large, but it is difficult to say whether the decision is correct, from an investment point of view, property prices did accumulate after a large increase.
He continued, Hong Kong’s population has a net outflow, immigration is only one of the reasons, not the whole truth. There are a lot of foreign workers or professionals originally living in the local, during the epidemic could not return to Hong Kong, mainlanders also need to enter the quarantine, some will decide to return to live in the mainland. Although there are immigrants in the market to reduce the price of the plate, but there is always the acceptance of force, reflecting that some people go, but also some people stay.
[Rental value fell 10% nano units most critical]
In addition to the brewing wave of immigrants, the Hong Kong property market is also subject to the decline in rental values, tart booking, eclipsed by the main plate and the frequent emergence of silver, the long-term trend is not optimistic, especially the acceptance of the lack of capacity of nano units.
Property rateable rental value can be considered an indicator of the property market, the current situation is the new financial year most of the luxury houses and houses, and even nano-units rental value have all turned down. For example, the Peak Mount Nicholson 1 house, the past few years, the rental value has been stable, but the latest data fell sharply by about 14.9% year-on-year to about 6,734,400 yuan. As for the nano units that have long been in the wave of decline, the rental value has fallen even more year after year, including the Hong Kong Island Sai Ying Pun AVA128 a practical area of about 177 square feet mid-rise households, the new fiscal year rental value of about 106,600 yuan, down about 14% year-on-year. Tai Po Lanshan Block 8 with a usable area of 181 square feet, the next year’s rental value also fell by about 10% to about $80,000.
In fact, the rise of nano units in the early years is due to high property prices, to accommodate the market’s purchasing power and derived products, because the living environment is extremely narrow, no matter how the market conditions are no investment value, the unit’s weak resistance to fall, from time to time there is an erosion of the sale. For example, this month’s transaction in Wong Tai Sin Diamond Ridge high-rise F room, practical area of about 198 square feet, open interval, for 3.65 million yuan, compared to the purchase price in September 2015 depreciated by more than 232,000 yuan.
Even the recent big sales of first-hand new properties, there are many buyers eventually decided to give up on the market. According to our statistics, the number of new property transactions in Hong Kong has blown more than 100 cases since the beginning of the year, compared with the first quarter of last year, the number recorded at the beginning of the “epidemic”, more than 10%, counting 30 similar cases in March alone, of which 10 cases accounted for the most by Tseung Kwan O LOHAS Park LP6.
At the same time, the market has repeatedly appeared silver master plate transactions or new cases, reflecting the financial problems of many owners, so that the unit is reduced to silver master property, individual opening price lower than the original owner purchase price. Recently added Ho Man Tin Kadoorie Xuan unit, practical area of about 267 square feet, the silver master to about 6.3 million yuan for sale, the original owner in 2018 to nearly 7.1 million yuan to enter the market, compared to the asking price of nearly 800,000 yuan lower.