U.S. debt interest rate panic lingers, the mainland stock market fell for several days, recorded since the global Epidemic outbreak in March last year since the largest adjustment wave, causing the market rumors that the official fund known as the national team to intervene in the market, in order to stabilize the A-share. But the Shanghai Composite Index still ended low, Hong Kong stocks from the decline to rise, but did not see obvious strength, it is clear that the so-called national team effect is not a panacea, but a foreshadowing of the U.S.-led “economic war” started!
Basically, the history of A-shares shows that every Time the national team enters the market does not help the “rebound”. Looking back at the 2015 plum market, the national team entered the A-share slump for several years, all because of the astronomical number of “official shares” crab goods to go unexplained, so trapped in the end of the big dilemma. After all, a sound and mature capital market, the price should be determined by the market, the valuation is too high, we have to go through the market mechanism to adjust, re-find the balance point, after which will naturally re-energize the upward cycle, live and die. But if you rely on external forces to stop the fall, can not solve the valuation problem, long-term market forces will not be “protection” and regain the desire to buy, the market will only be a pool of stagnant water, buying and selling two idle, neither for the benefit of enterprises and investors.
Yesterday, there was a story in the market that the mainland authorities, in view of the recent political and economic activities, did not want to see the stock market fluctuate significantly and took action. If that were true, the stock market should not have plunged since last Thursday, and there would be no need for the national team to clean up the mess now. The market is most concerned about the tightening of market liquidity at the end of the first quarter, the pressure of corporate debt maturity, increasing the pressure on the capital market to cash out. Unless the authorities put forward clearer monetary and fiscal policy guidelines, or short-term market conditions will continue to fluctuate, the rumors of the national team into the market will only be seen as an “escape door” more than a turnaround.
Looking at the external situation, as many places around the world start vaccination one after another, the trend of the economy back on track is not in doubt, only the speed is not clear; furthermore, the United States is about to launch 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars to stimulate the economy program, strengthening Inflation and liquidity reversal expectations, capital began to return to the real economy and traditional industrial stocks, outflow of ultra-high valuation of technology stocks, this is a global phenomenon, the stock market in Hong Kong and China is no exception, it really does not see The national team to intervene, even if the hand, it is not necessarily able to reverse the new trend of investment.
Therefore, the news of the national team into the market on the stock market in Hong Kong and China to boost the role of only a short-lived. Rather than looking forward to the central government to save, investors should pay more attention to the dollar back to the courage and the yuan to turn weak, will be more effective to grasp the short-term trend of the yuan assets, and should pay close attention to the month the U.S. Federal Reserve will take practical action to curb the U.S. long bond interest rates rise, in order to stabilize the market expectations of inflation and liquidity, to ensure that the post-epidemic economic recovery without fear. Otherwise, the short-term capital market will only continue to fall, the market situation “after the bomb and then scattered”, a wave below a wave, the loss of purchasing power, confidence will be repeatedly frustrated, the wealth effect ebb, corporate financing more difficult, the economic recovery wave this year will be greatly discounted, I believe this is the United States launched the “economic The beginning of the “economic war”.
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