Professor Fuxian Yi, a senior demographic scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, released his research findings after years of detailed research on China’s demographic situation, concluding from a demographic perspective that China’s economy will never surpass that of the United States.
Professor Zhang Tianliang, a renowned history scholar, commentator on current affairs and self-publisher, shares his review of Professor Yi’s research findings and explains why the conclusions reached by Professor Yi are convincing.
The Empty Nest of a Great Nation: China’s Demographic Crisis is as Severe as Japan’s and Will Destroy Economic Dreams
When this story is told, many pinkos who used to be particularly proud of the economic development under the Chinese Communist Party may feel particularly humiliated. In fact, this matter has been put forward as early as 2007 by a senior scientist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Fuxian Yi. At that Time, he published a book called “The Empty Nest of the Great Nation”, which talked about the serious state of China’s population problem. At that time, Yi predicted that China’s population would soon face an inflection point: the population would decline.
Professor Fuxian Yi, a veteran population scientist, published his book “The Empty Nest in the Big Country” in 2007. (Photo credit: Internet image)
In 2019 Prof. Fuxian Yi posted this article again in the English-language South China Morning Post, and his title is called “Earlier than Japan, how China’s looming demographic crisis will destroy its economic dreams”.
We know that the country of Japan is a very small territory and that the geographical structure of Japan is not very suitable for agricultural production, and that there are volcanoes everywhere, kind of like Taiwan is a volcanic island. A slightly better place, mainly on The Japanese island of Honshu, which is near Tokyo, a mega metropolis in the world, Tokyo and some surrounding satellite cities added together, probably more than half of the population of Japan. So the feeling of Japan is very crowded. I heard from my friends who studied in Japan that Japanese commuters can’t even squeeze on the subway, there are too many people, and someone has to push you inside the subway station. This is the feeling that Japan’s population is very large.
Although Japan has a large population of more than 100 million people, the labor force in Japan is actually insufficient because Japan is aging very seriously. Japan’s main demographic structure is mostly elderly people, and this part of the population is not working when they retire. Therefore, a country like Japan, which has a high population density to such an extent, often needs to bring in labor. Countries like Canada and Australia are immigrant countries, just because the country’s labor force population is insufficient.
Doesn’t it seem to sound and feel a little bit unbelievable that China is now facing a labor shortage as well? How can China, with a population of over 1.3 billion, face a labor shortage?
The conclusion is quite convincing from a quantitative analysis from the perspective of population science
In the past, when we analyzed the economy of the Chinese Communist Party, we often focused on the destruction of human creativity by totalitarianism, that is, in a totalitarian state, people lack creativity and unified thinking, which leads to the inability to advance in science and technology; I have also said before that China’s serious environmental pollution may be a factor that restricts economic development; I have also mentioned that the moral corruption of Chinese people also restricts economic growth, producing counterfeit and shoddy products, and even toxic Food. It has also been mentioned that Chinese people’s bad morality will also limit economic growth, producing counterfeit and shoddy products, and even toxic food, which are harmful to people’s health, and the cost of running the society becomes very high when people guard each other ……. These are all from a sociological point of view, more of a qualitative analysis, not a quantitative analysis.
Professor Yi Fu-hsien, who analyzes from a demographic point of view, is quite convincing, and his analysis is quantitative, very scientific and very illustrative. The Voice of America also published an interview with F. H. Yee, who made a surprising prediction that China’s economy would never overtake that of the United States. The reporter asked a lot of very pointed questions.
One of the many Anti-Communist arguments is the China threat theory, that if China grows, it may threaten the United States or compete with it for hegemony. Professor Yi Fu-hsien, who is not a pro-communist, put forward an argument called the China non-threat theory, arguing that China is not a threat to the United States. This feels as if he is speaking for China: you don’t have to mind, the CCP does not threaten the United States. But he argues from such a conclusion, and you will find that his research findings confirm that it is indeed very difficult for the CCP to threaten the United States or even to catch up with the United States at all.
The Chinese and American economies are like sprinters and long-distance runners, and the distance between the rivals will naturally get longer and longer.
Some people once predicted that at the current rate of economic development of the Chinese Communist Party, it would overtake the United States by 2035, and China’s GDP would exceed that of the United States. Now, due to the plague, the U.S. GDP is declining instead of growing, while every year the Chinese Communist Party is growing. These two gains and losses will cause the CCP to overtake the US by 2028. Now there are some big fifty cents in the Chinese Communist Party who may also be propagating such a view, inciting people’s national pride and justifying the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule.
Professor Yi Fuxian made a very interesting point when he said that China’s annual economic growth rate was 10% from 2007, and the mainstream media at that time believed in 2011 that China’s economy would be twice that of the United States in 2032. There was a lot of excitement in the country at the time that China was on the rise.
Professor Yi Fu-hsien made an analogy: Japan is a sprinter, just like Taiwan and Korea; while the United States is a long-distance runner, and he has a particularly strong backbone. Just like agriculture in the United States and China, China’s agricultural production you feel as if it is much more powerful than the United States, China has so little land to feed so many people. However, it is not a linear growth forever, to a certain point it will meet a bottleneck. China’s economic development is the same, he said: sprinting, you can run very fast for a short time, you may not be difficult to overtake the opponent, but in the long run, you simply can not compare with the opponent, you use the 100-meter sprint speed may quickly close the distance between you and the competition, because you are 100-meter sprint speed, but you run 400 meters with the speed of running 100 meters, you can not run, you have to slow down. Your speed has to slow down, and then you will find that the distance between you and your rival is getting longer and longer.
China’s aging population will result in a severe labor shortage and a heavy social and economic burden
According to Prof. F.H. Yee, China’s labor force becomes dramatically smaller after 2013 and 2014, that is, China’s population ages dramatically and the labor force starts to decrease in 2013 and 2014. In contrast, the labor force in the United States will not decrease until 2050. He has always believed that population is a very important factor in wealth creation and employment creation, because there is talent for consumption, there is talent for creation, and there is consumption to drive production.
Take the U.S. social security (Social Security) will be a problem as an example, because the United States after World War II there was a baby boom, when a lot of babies were born, this group of people into the labor market, led the U.S. economic boom. In fact, the economic boom driven by Reagan at that time was also related to the U.S. population dividend, which made the U.S. economy grow at a high rate, and by the time of Reagan, the money of the U.S. Social Security had been rising because many people worked and kept saving in it.
U.S. law requires that any person’s salary, that is, you are employed by a person, your salary of which a percentage of 6.5% to be deposited into the U.S. Social Security pool. Now the U.S. pool has about $3 trillion in it, and people will take money from it when they retire. But because the U.S. population is now growing slowly, many people think that the U.S. Social Security pool will go wrong.
CNBC has a prediction that the U.S. Social Security may soon run out of money. It predicts that by 2020, 65 million people will have to receive Social Security money from Social Security. How much? – A trillion dollars. But there are still people who are depositing money into it. And at what point does this rate run out of money in this pool? It’s projected to be around 2035. After that you’ll probably only receive 79% of the Social Security money. So you’ll see that the United States actually has a population problem, but the Chinese Communist Party has a much more serious population problem in comparison.
China’s median population is rising rapidly and will be over 56 years old in 2050; the U.S. is 44 years old
Professor Yi Fu-hsien gives a figure which says that in 1980, the median population of China was 22 years old, that is, the population above 22 years old was as large as the population below 22 years old. 22 years old is rich and strong, he does not need to consider so many health expenses, including medical expenses after aging, he does not need to consider these things, this is the demographic dividend. In this case, he is equal to just work, consumption is very little, he also does not need to receive a pension. So China’s economy is bound to grow at this time.
In the 1980s the median population in China was 22 years old, in the US it was 30 years old. So it’s clear to see that China’s workforce is much younger and they are more willing to work. Professor Yi Fu-hsien said that since 2014, China’s median population has been increasing, and in 2018, China’s median population has become 42 years old, meaning that there are as many people under 42 as there are people over 42, while the United States is 38 years old, four years younger than China.
When people reach middle age, their body organs will start to have problems, they need to take care of them, they need to go out for exercise and so on, and the medical expenses will increase. Many people do manual work, if they are young, they can do manual work without problems, but when they reach middle age, they can no longer do manual work. As you know, there is a shortage of civilian workers in many places, and it is difficult to find civilian workers because of the aging of the population and the number of young people growing in the new generation.
Professor Yi said that by 2035, China’s median population will be 49 years old, while the United States is 42 years old; by 2050, China’s median population will be more than 56 years old, while the United States is 44 years old.
If China’s median population reaches 56 years old, it means that more than half of the people are already retired, and who do they rely on to support them? They depend on the other half of the population, and the other half of the population will be under a lot of economic pressure. And the median population in the United States at that time was 44 years old. So a comparison will show who has the advantage in the long run.
China’s population is heavily falsified, and the true total population is not known
Professor Yi also talked about the fertility rate. In 1991, China’s fertility rate was already lower than that of the United States, and in 2000, China’s fertility rate started to be lower than Japan, Germany, Greece, Portugal and Italy, so the aging of China’s population will be even worse than Japan’s. Japan is now being dragged down by the elderly and its economic development is very slow, while China will be even worse than Japan.
Many people think that China still has a large population now, with 1.3 billion more. Professor Yi’s research found that in fact, China’s population falsification is particularly serious because of its profit motive at work inside. For example, the Family planning office, if it says that China’s population is now starting to shrink, then the family planning office is useless and they will lose their jobs, so they falsify the population figures. Local governments too, because there is 9 years of compulsory Education, according to the population born in your place to allocate you education funds, you overstate the population to receive more education funds to receive more …… similar to this kind of falsification of the cat is particularly large.
Professor Yi Fuxian gave an example: In 2000, the National Bureau of Statistics got the conclusion that 17.29 million people were born in the country. When the statistics were retaken in 2015, the population of 15-year-olds in 2015 should be the population of zero-year-olds in 2000, but in 2015 it was found that there were only 13.5 million 15-year-olds. We know that there may be children under the age of 15 who die young, but that is rarely and largely negligible. 17.29 million in 2000, how did it become 13.5 million in 2015? That’s a 30% flooding, an overstatement of 4 million. So imagine how much China’s population is actually a mystery now! It is not known what the population of China is now.
Chinese people’s willingness to have children is declining, and the financial and energy costs of raising children are too high
There is a relationship between population growth and the willingness to have children. The willingness to have children in the United States is also on the decline, now down to 1.65, that is, a couple only 1.65 children, less than two people. So the population of the United States is also slipping. What must be said here is that all the leftist indoctrination about transgenderism, piercing needles, whatever homosexuality, etc., will further depress the birth rate.
We all know that having and raising children is a lot of work, and people are increasingly reluctant to have children nowadays, they are willing to spend, to entertain, and just be happy physically and mentally, what with Marriage, what with social responsibility, what with procreation, often being left aside. When people’s morality declines, it will cause a delay in the age of childbirth, even including a decrease in the willingness to have children. And now people feel that the cost of raising children is too high.
When I was a child, social security was relatively good, and the environment I grew up in was relatively simple, so my Parents were not particularly worried, there was no Internet and no entertainment, so basically I just went to school, came Home after school to do my homework, occasionally went out to play digging in the sand and other things close to nature, and then went to bed without much temptation.
Nowadays, it’s hard for children to concentrate on their studies, with all kinds of video games, online information and even pornography, plus the indulgence of all kinds of desires, and even the leftist intention to make people stupid, making it hard for people to study quietly. With such a social climate, parents who want to raise their children must invest a lot of energy in being with them, learning with them, and expending a lot of energy to fight the social trends. So the cost of time and energy to raise children becomes very, very high. This will further reduce the willingness of people to have children and raise them. If this continues, the population will keep decreasing.
China’s economy will stall if the aging population is not replenished by immigration
In fact, many countries, like Japan and Canada, in order to solve the problem of labor shortage, its method is immigration. But China, who wants to really immigrate to China? Who would want to immigrate to a country like China where there is no freedom and where you have to climb over a wall to access the Internet? No rule of law, at any time may be arrested, as leeks cut, or framed by others have no place to go to reason …… so China is its own population in the process of gradual aging of the labor shortage, but it is impossible to immigrate from other countries to supplement; Chinese people’s own willingness to reproduce and then reduce, this is China This is the demographic crisis that China is facing.
Of course, from the demographic point of view, not only China, when people begin to indulge their desires, the population will begin to decline, which is actually a worldwide crisis, because when the population decreases, people are actually the main body of prosperity in the world, human creativity, including human consumption, etc., are driving the world economy, after the people become less, such a country it can not be a very prosperous and strong country The country cannot be a very prosperous and powerful country.
Let’s look at Canada, its territory is larger than China, but its population is very small, only 30 million people, so you can hardly consider it as an influential country. Australia is the same. Australia has 7 million square kilometers and a population of about 20 million, which is about the same as the population of a city in Chongqing, China, so although it has a large territory, you can hardly consider it as an influential country.
So I think that the population problem is really a very serious problem for China. Professor Yi Fu-hsien’s projection, his inference from the perspective of population, is quite convincing; this convincing conclusion is that China’s economy will never be able to surpass that of the United States.
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