As the New Year began, the Chinese Communist Party‘s forceful intimidation intensified, so the international community began to rise up in anticipation of war, with the U.S. and China putting words in each other’s mouths: pull out the red line of their own norms.
More forceful intimidation than actual action
I have said many times in past columns: the CCP will not start a war unless Xi goes crazy, and as long as Xi can control the military power, the possibility of war is very low because, the price of war is the price of the collapse of the CCP regime. Even if the CCP is not dragged down by the war, the PLA thinks it can destroy Taiwan‘s hard facilities with missiles for three days and then land on Taiwan; however, within these three days, Taiwan will also counterattack, and by then, China’s By that Time, China’s metropolitan cities from Beijing to Shenzhen will also be in flames, with a hundred years of construction razed to the ground and economic recovery taking decades, not to mention the loss of human lives.
Some people say: Before 2025, the Chinese Communist Party is busy improving its economy, so it is unlikely to engage in war. Some people say: Within one or two years, Xi Jinping will do it, because the Communist Party sees that Biden is weak and will not send troops to stop it. Secondly, the Chinese Communist Party’s “anti-intervention” strategy has matured, not worried about the United States to intervene by force, but recently Zhongnanhai issued a signal: “not to engage in armed reunification, back to the old road of peaceful reunification”, in short, something like war, most people can not predict, experts say all the time. Anyway, these views are always a matter of opinion and cannot be commented on. I still think: Xi Jinping’s chances of taking Taiwan by starting a war are slim, unless he has gone crazy.
For Taiwan, since it is a victim of war intimidation, it naturally cannot ignore these experts’ remarks, which are the so-called “strict anticipation of the enemy”.
In order to prevent the outbreak of war, which will affect the economic development of the world, the spring has entered March, the United States, Britain, France, Japan and Australia, as well as Indian warships have been passing through the South China Sea, Biden asked the international community to join hands to stop the Chinese Communist Party from launching a war against Taiwan at the G7 summit. Whether Taiwan can remain free and open and independent is no longer a question for Taiwan, but for the whole world.
The Economist analyzes the choice of the Chinese Communist Party
The latest article in the British Economist, which has attracted international attention, is titled “The Chinese Communist Party faces a major choice, especially about Taiwan”.
Xi Jinping, who is in power, knows in his heart that if he wants to engage in dictatorship, he is bound to become Mao Zedong, and the condition for becoming Mao Zedong is to move to the extreme left, and the condition for moving to the left is to stop reform and opening up and return to the era of the Cultural Revolution, and the slogan of returning to the Cultural Revolution is bound to make everyone tighten their pockets. Xi Jinping cut a knife to Ma Yun, forcing Jiang Zhicheng and the second generation of red, the deposit moved to Singapore, this knife is scared a bunch of people, Xi Jinping know: they want to be The Emperor, there is no turning back, the downfall of enemies on all sides, forcing Xi to become Mao Zedong, as long as the name is tainted, after death will certainly be a thousand years of fame, although the anti-Xi faction Still trying to fight, trying to take out Xi Jinping, the end of the infighting has not yet been revealed, of course, will affect the fear of whether China and Taiwan continue to peace or set off a war.
The Economist analyzes the variables of an impedance war in the Taiwan Strait, there are three major items: First, can Xi Jinping afford the international backlash against the Chinese Communist Party’s troop deployment? As far as we know, as long as something happens in Taiwan, the four allied forces of the United States, Japan, India and Australia must surround the Chinese Communist Party. Secondly, how serious is the destruction of the Chinese Communist Party by the armed intervention of the United States? Third, can the Chinese Communist Party afford to be punished by the international financial system for the RMB? The so-called international currency is dependent on the SWIFT dollar system organization, must force the yuan out of the dollar system, this blow is the fatal blow, even if the Chinese Communist Party’s economy how strong, do not need to rely on the dollar, but, for a short time will certainly hit the Chinese economy hard.
What Xi is worried about is the alliance of the United States, Japan, India and Australia after the war, and if the EU countries with unknown attitudes are added, whether the CCP can bear the cost of these wars is the key point that Xi Jinping is caught in a choice.