On February 1 (Monday), Taiwan‘s Ministry of National Defense website announced in the Instant Military Updates section that Chinese and U.S. military aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwest airspace respectively. A Chinese Communist military aircraft, the Carrier 8 anti-submarine aircraft, entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace, and the Taiwan Air Force dispatched air patrol troops to respond, broadcast repulsion, and chase and monitor anti-aircraft missiles; on the same day, two U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft and one refueling aircraft also appeared in the surrounding airspace.
Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel in the naval command who has served in the Chinese Communist military for more than 20 years, said that the military crisis in the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly tense, and the United States has not yet had room to deal with international diplomatic affairs after the new President Biden took office, which may be the most sensitive Time for the Chinese Communist Party to attack Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party “war to force surrender” has not cared to tear the face
According to Yao Cheng’s observation, since Biden took office, it is clear that Zhongnanhai’s military towards Taiwan is changing from passive to active, as there are great variables between the US and China, and the US is not yet ready to take the initiative. The Chinese Communist Party now prefers to “force surrender by war” rather than “force peace by force.
Yao Cheng said, “On the issue of Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party is able to raise the whole country and systematically attack, in the past may still want to stabilize the peace, but now is not care to tear the face.”
Yao Cheng said Taiwan has always been the biggest heartache of the CCP leaders, because no matter how much the CCP boasts and talks about it, Taiwan is not unified, so what great takeoff is there to talk about? In addition, the current CCP leader Xi Jinping also needs to establish his prestige in the military, because in the past he has been very passive and his reputation in the military has been declining. Now that there are more internal problems in the U.S., Biden has to prioritize the internal problems in the homeland on the one hand; on the other hand, the general direction of the U.S. military on the Taiwan Strait issue may not be clear yet. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party can use this time to force the U.S. military, and at the same time make a strong statement to other small countries.
Violation of the Taiwan Strait is really a global Epidemic to unload blame to force Biden to yield
Yao Cheng said, “Because of the presence of the United States, so the Chinese Communist Party has not been able to solve the problem of Taiwan for more than seventy years, and now Zhongnanhai’s goal is to at least make Biden soften in his policy toward Taiwan.”
This time, the CCP viruses (New Crown virus and Wuhan virus) have caused incalculable damage to the world. Yao Cheng believes that when the epidemic is under control and the virus is eliminated, countries will definitely blame the CCP and demand compensation from the CCP, and when the Western democratic world recovers, the CCP will face an even bigger crisis. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party will definitely strike first, and if it can frustrate the United States, other countries will not dare to move again. The Chinese Communist Party’s attack on Taiwan is actually a game with the United States, on the one hand, to establish its military status, and at the same time, to prepare for the epidemic to unload the blame.
The Chinese Communist Party is not afraid to die, so it can afford to lose
Yao Cheng assessed: “The U.S. military has an absolute advantage in military equipment against the CCP, but the CCP can afford to lose, and they (CCP) are not afraid to die more people.” Generally speaking, two evenly matched countries will not go to war, just as when the United States did not go to war directly with the Soviet Union, but used various means to allow its own internal disintegration.
Similarly, the U.S. would not want to go to war with China, because “killing 10,000 enemies will at least cost you 3,000,” Yao Cheng believes that the U.S. will not take the risk, he said: “The U.S. said to Iran, Iraq and other countries to fight because they have an absolute advantage in armaments, and these two countries do not have as much as the Chinese Communist Party of troops, and more importantly, no other country would treat its soldiers like human beings, as the CCP does.”
According to Yao Cheng’s understanding, it would take about three years of military preparation for the CCP to attack Taiwan, but this does not mean that the CCP will not go to war, because the CCP has other means. In his analysis, the Chinese Communist Party can use the “Coast Guard”, known as the second navy, to fire the first salvo, and then mobilize the “maritime militia” to surround the island of Taiwan.
The so-called “maritime militia” refers to civilian fishing boats of large tonnage, which can be loaded with very large weapons and have been regarded as the CCP’s third navy, which can be called upon at any time. Yao Cheng said, “If the Chinese Communist Party called up 10,000 to 20,000 fishing boats to depart Taiwan in unison, it would really catch us off guard.” The loss of fishermen and private enterprises is certainly not within the scope of the CCP’s consideration.
In the past, Taiwan and the Chinese Communist Party have had several military crises, but the U.S. military did not directly participate in the war. 1995 to 1996, a missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Yao Cheng, then serving in the Navy Command, recalled that two U.S. aircraft carriers entered the range of the Chinese Communist Party’s waters and quickly turned around and left.
Yao Cheng said that the only encounter between the U.S. military and the Chinese Communist Party was the “Korean War”, when the Chinese Communist Party suffered more than ten times the number of casualties than the U.S. military, but still claimed victory, for the simple reason that the Chinese Communist Party was not afraid of dying.
The ROC government should make good use of its democratic advantages
Yao Cheng believes that the ROC government must start with its own national defense and cannot rely solely on the United States for help; more importantly, it must make good use of its democratic advantages and emphasize its unique orthodox status.
He said, “The art of war is to attack the heart, and Taiwan’s advantage is in its special historical position and democratic system, and weapons can no longer compete to beat the Chinese Communist Party because the economic strength is too disparate.” But the Life of Taiwan society is still very much desired by mainland Chinese, and the ROC government should use other ways to repel and disrupt the Chinese Communist system.
Yao Cheng said the CCP has never given up its intelligence war against Taiwan, and the CCP’s fifth column, interferes in various ways in all aspects of Taiwan’s economy and politics. He said, “It’s incredible that Taiwan can still have the Communist Party’s five-star red flag, and that there can still be a Communist Party.” The government of the Republic of China should strictly guard against such ideological infiltration and not underestimate the various unification tactics of the CCP.
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