The possibility of banning log exports from Russia starting in 2022 has emerged. Japan’s imports are small and the direct impact is small. However, if China, which imports large quantities of Russian-made logs, increases its purchases of cedar and other logs from Japan as a substitute, Japanese domestic prices may also be affected.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in September this year that the export of logs such as conifers will be banned from January 2022. The aim is to protect Russia’s domestic forestry industry.
Russia has de facto banned the export of logs since 2007 by raising tariffs. From the current tariff rate, the export rate for processed products is 60% for enterprises below a certain level, which will increase to 80% by 2021. Companies that meet the criteria are subject to lower tariffs and export mainly to China.
According to the Japan Lumber Importers Association, Japan’s imports of Russian-made logs will be about 110,000 cubic meters in 2019. This is only about 1 percent of what belonged to the peak in the 1970s.
Most of China’s imports of coniferous logs come from Russia. The logs are processed into fencing materials, furniture, etc. for re-export, so it is difficult to switch to imports of processed wood. Importing from neighboring Japan would reduce transportation costs, and many argue that “China will increase its purchases of Japanese logs after Russia bans exports”.
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