The Chinese Communist Party recently held an economic meeting to set the economic work in 2022, and again mentioned the “six stable” and “six protection” work. In this regard, experts analyzed that Beijing retreated from seeking stability to seeking protection, indicating that China’s economy is entering a cold winter and hard times are coming. At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party’s imperial experts also publicly said that China’s economy may enter the most difficult period.
China’s Communist Party is facing a full-blown crisis, expert: most worried about the economy in turmoil
According to the Communist Party’s Xinhua News Agency, the Communist Party’s Politburo held a meeting on Monday (Dec. 6) and put forward the general requirements for economic work in 2022, “the word “stability” in the forefront, and continue to do a good job of “six stable” “six protection “work. It mentioned the need for stability, including people’s livelihood, macroeconomic macro, economic operation and the general situation of society, etc..
The “Six Stabilities” were first proposed at the CPC Central Economic Work Conference in July 2018, namely, “stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and stable expectations”; the “Six Guarantees” were proposed in April 2020, namely, “guaranteeing employment for residents, basic livelihood, market players, food and energy security, stability of the industrial chain supply chain and grassroots operation”.
According to an article in the party media “Seeking Truth”, 2021 will be a “milestone year” to deal with the 100-year change and the epidemic of the century, and to maintain the global leadership in economic development.
Xie Tian, a professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken School of Business, said, “This year is indeed a milestone year and a turning point, as the Chinese Communist Party is in fact facing a full-scale crisis.” The reason why it reiterated the “six stability” and “six protection” of the economy “is that it is afraid that the economy will fall into chaos and turmoil, which is its biggest concern.”
From the CPC’s proposal of “stabilizing employment” in 2018 to “preserving the employment of residents” and “preserving basic livelihoods” in 2020, Xie Tian believes that this shows that The “stable employment” has not been successful; because of the shaky economic foundation, the basic livelihood is proposed, “to ensure that you can basically survive.”
Xie Tian said, “This is related to the bottom line of people’s livelihood, the employment policy and the new birth policy,” which means that there are big problems and instability in China’s grassroots society.
Xie analyzed that “the outward movement of the industrial chain has been accelerating, and then the Chinese Communist Party feels that the whole industrial chain may not be preserved. So it hopes to maintain the resilience and advantage of the industrial chain next year, which is another crisis it feels.”
Xie Tian said that the Chinese Communist Party mentions the word “stability” and “seeking progress in the midst of stability”, “which actually means that Chinese society from politics, economy, foreign trade, finance, food, energy, people’s livelihood, even the basic operation of this whole social structure is all unstable, (to) the brink of collapse.”
Chinese economist Li Hengqing also told the Epoch Times, “This economic work conference, a very important statement, is ‘the word stability is in the forefront’, and even said several stable. In particular, after Xi Jinping’s speech, Li Keqiang concluded by saying that stability must be maintained, which shows that the CCP is caught in a political, economic, military and diplomatic dilemma.
Chinese Communist Party experts “tell the truth”: or the most difficult period
Earlier, the Chinese Communist Party held a forum for people outside the Party in Zhongnanhai, the Communist Party media Xinhua News Agency reported on the 6th, the participants put forward suggestions on the economic situation this year and next year’s economic work, Xi Jinping presided over and delivered a speech, involving macro and micro policies effective and functional.
According to Li Hengqing, “They are actually starting to say a little bit of the truth, why? They’re asking for a plan to see what we can do to survive.”
Radio Free Asia reports that Li Daokui, an imperial economist and professor at Tsinghua University who has consistently sung the praises of the Chinese Communist Party in the past, mentioned at the Sina Finance 2021 annual meeting on the 6th that he was afraid that the Chinese economy might be relatively difficult to run and develop in the next few years, and that from a five-year overall perspective, it might be the most difficult period since the reform and opening up over the past 40 years.
Li Daokui said, “(Xi Jinping repeatedly mentioned) to be prepared for a more difficult recovery, my understanding in terms of economic work, we also need to make more difficult ideological preparation.”
Li Daokui also analyzed that China’s domestic economy should not be too optimistic, and a major problem is the lack of domestic demand. He cited the example of the “double 11” buy gas, the growth rate has now dropped to less than 20%, an important reason is that the rise in wages did not keep up, the people’s disposable income growth and GDP is basically synchronized, and not much beyond.
“Analysis: China’s economy is entering a cold winter
Li Hengqing told the Epoch Times that many data in China are now becoming confidential. “People like us who study the economy, it is difficult to get accurate figures, including like Li Daokui, although they are guests of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, but the figures they have access to are not always comprehensive or accurate, and they are able to feel that the problem is serious.”
“I used to say that Li Daokui and Hu Angang are people who specialize in being planners or drummers (for the ‘grand blueprint’).”
Li Daokui this time to talk about China’s economic ills, Li Hengqing said, many industries now the state restrictions, but we always have to find a new direction. Real estate is now down, bringing all kinds of wait-and-see, investors wait-and-see, consumers wait-and-see, people buy houses wait-and-see, making local finances also more difficult.
Li Daokui believes that “if the government’s own behavior, its own incentives are not in place, then it is chaotic as, that is not effective, not ‘have for the government’, is ‘chaotic for the government’. “
Li Hengqing analysis, the Chinese economy has now begun to enter the winter, of course, this winter can finally be “stable” to what extent? Finally the Chinese people are not able to bear? How much is the ability to bear? If everyone is against it, a new hope for the Chinese people will emerge.
Recently, there is bad news about the real estate industry, which accounts for about 30% of China’s GDP. Chinese financial media CNA reported on the 7th that E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the “November 2021 National 40 Cities New Commercial Residential Transaction Report” on the 6th, showing that the transaction volume hit a new low for the same period in the past 10 years.
In terms of growth rate, the volume in November dropped 4.3% from the previous month and plunged 39.4% from the same period last year. from January to November, the cumulative area of new housing transactions in 40 cities increased by 2.6% annually, with a growth rate down 5.3 percentage points from the previous month. It is expected that the annual 40-city new commercial housing transaction area, compared with the previous year’s growth rate will turn from positive to negative.
Li Hengqing said this real estate industry is basically close to collapse, demand is almost zero. And the real estate market will drive the entire economy, like cement, steel, steel, and construction matching workers employment and service industry, are linked, and it is followed by one of the largest industries – banks, the entire financial industry.
He believes that under such a blow, all aspects are wailing, “except for a few industries such as AI and biotechnology and heavy manufacturing through strong government support, all other aspects of the economy are not working, it should be said that in 2022, China’s economic outlook is very bad.”
Unemployment army may expand Xie Jinhe warns: bitter days are coming
The Communist Party’s economic meeting rarely emphasizes livelihood issues, said to protect farmers’ wages. Li Hengqing said this is a very big issue node.
On December 1, Li Keqiang said at the State Council executive meeting, to “deploy measures to clean up arrears in payments to small and medium-sized enterprises and guarantee the timely and full payment of wages to migrant workers”.
Why don’t you settle the accounts for migrant workers? According to Li Hengqing, it is because the economy is in trouble, and this problem will last for a long time.
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party’s policy is suppressing the enterprises, and many projects under construction cannot get the cash money, so they have to dismiss the migrant workers, but they are not paid immediately. Li Hengqing said that it is conceivable that there will still be a large number of migrant workers demanding wages in the New Year this year, because the whole economy is running very poorly and this danger should still exist.
Recently, Li Keqiang also said that this year, no matter what happens, if the enterprise does not pay the migrant workers, it will finally use the public prosecutor to solve the problem.
Li Hengqing analyzed that nearly 200 million migrant workers are now back to their hometowns and have no occupation; and more than 10 million undergraduate graduates will enter the army of unemployment, now Beijing’s biggest headache, how to “maintain stability”?
For Li Daokui said “the most serious period”, Taiwan’s Caixin Media Chairman Xie Jinhe posted an analysis on Facebook, by the royal economist himself said China to live a hard life, very unusual.
The Chinese Communist Party has always attributed malicious attacks to others who say China’s economy is bad, and those who break the news will have their accounts blocked, but this time it was the imperial economist who gave the warning, and it has been published by the centrally supervised Hong Kong Economic Journal, which is even more unusual.
Xie Jinhe analyzed, “the Chinese Communist Party central government intends to through the mouth of the system economists, to still live in the ‘great my country’ of the anthropophagous people to give a precautionary shot, telling them that the hard times are coming, stop living in a drunken dream, to tighten their belts, to face the future cut leeks, to be psychologically prepared. “