On Friday, May 21, President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held their first U.S.-South Korea summit since Biden took office at the White House. After the meeting, the two countries issued a joint statement stressing that the U.S. and South Korea oppose all activities that threaten or undermine the international order and will work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. However, several experts in East Asian affairs commented that the summit only reaffirmed the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea, but there was no substantive breakthrough on key issues such as confronting the Chinese Communist Party and denuclearizing North Korea.
South Korea has reservations about confronting the Chinese Communist Party
Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Political and Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, said that while the U.S. has been pushing for South Korea to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) system, Moon has not made clear his willingness to join the system and work with the U.S., India, Japan and Australia to work together against Beijing.
According to Weitz, while Moon may have discussed China’s bullying tactics in the Taiwan Strait with Biden in private, he has “avoided taking a position or taking any action in public.
Scott Harold, a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation (RAND), a U.S. think tank, also believes that South Korea is unlikely to join the “quartet” of countries, but will only cooperate with the U.S. on specific issues. For example, he said, if the U.S. asked South Korea to support an initiative to promote free and open navigation in the high seas and South China Sea, South Korea would cooperate.
Ma Zhao, a professor of East Asian studies at Washington University in St. Louis, said that as the U.S.-China rivalry unfolds, South Korea, as a partner of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, may adopt a wait-and-see attitude rather than “jumping up and putting itself in the crossfire of great power competition.
Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank, argued that the U.S. tried to convince South Korea to criticize the Communist Party more openly before Moon took office, but Moon did not respond. He analyzes that the U.S. believes that South Korea, as a democracy, should stand up for itself when its shared values and principles are under attack, yet it fears offending its largest trading partner, China, and does not want to get involved in a confrontation between the U.S. and China.
U.S. and South Korea have no illusions about the North Korean nuclear issue
The security situation on the Korean Peninsula and the North Korean nuclear issue have been important elements in the U.S.-South Korean bilateral relationship, and at the summit, Biden said that denuclearization of North Korea has always been a U.S. goal. He also announced the appointment of Sung Kim as special envoy for North Korea. In addition, after the meeting, both the U.S. and South Korea expressed their desire to reach out to North Korea through diplomatic channels and take pragmatic steps to reduce tensions.
But Patrick Cronin, chairman of the Hudson Institute’s Asia-Pacific Security Program, said Biden’s appointment of a special envoy to North Korea demonstrates the Biden administration’s desire to use diplomacy to open a dialogue with North Korea on the condition that it is willing to discuss denuclearization, a goal the U.S. has hoped to achieve for decades. But despite this, he analyzed, the U.S. and South Korean leaders are under no illusions that North Korea will make concessions on the issue.
For his part, Ma Zhao believes that because the Biden administration has not yet fully clarified exactly where the overall strategy of the U.S.-China rivalry is headed, the North Korean nuclear issue will be subject to changes in U.S.-China relations without any substantial breakthrough. On the one hand, he said, North Korea is now a nuclear power and Kim Jong Un is not facing any direct existential threat, so he only wants to consolidate his new status as a nuclear power; on the other hand, Moon Jae-in is too consumed by his own domestic party struggles and political scandals to care about the nuclear issue. Therefore, the North Korean issue will not be a priority for Moon.
Weitz also believes that he does not think the U.S. can provide much help to South Korea in restarting inter-Korean diplomacy, as “North Korea seems to be adopting an isolationist policy that is bent on its own”.
Reaffirming alliance, each for his own needs
Experts generally agreed after the U.S.-South Korea summit that the summit did not make any breakthroughs or achievements, but merely reaffirmed the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea.
Harold said the Biden administration hopes to convince South Korea to support some of its plans in the Indo-Pacific region, such as: advancing the transfer of operational command of the U.S.-South Korea Joint Command, how to restart routine joint military exercises, and how to deal with some issues after the negotiation of the agreement on special measures; while the South Korean side is more concerned about cooperation with the United States in areas such as vaccines, batteries and semiconductors.
He believes that the U.S. has therefore committed to cooperate with South Korea in vaccines, high technology and investment. Biden also announced right at the press conference that the U.S. will provide vaccines to 550,000 South Korean soldiers who work closely with the U.S. military.
Ma Zhao also believes that Biden and Moon are unlikely to have much of a breakthrough at their first summit. He said Moon is now facing a tough re-election campaign in 2022, so it is understandable that the U.S. and South Korea are currently focusing more on issues such as U.S.-South Korea trade, defense cost-sharing, or realigning the U.S.-led regional security framework.
I think the focus of this U.S.-South Korea summit is to reaffirm the traditional alliance,” Weitz said. Washington pledged to defend South Korea without asking Seoul to pay more; South Korea pledged to invest in U.S. high-tech industries.”
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