Following recent reports that Honduras, Taiwan’s friend in Central America, may “break off diplomatic relations” with Taiwan in order to obtain Chinese vaccines, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry has reiterated that Taiwan-Honduras diplomatic relations are strong and friendly. Analysts say that Honduras is playing the “vaccine card” because it wants to draw the attention of the United States and intervene in order to get the vaccine for its country, not because it really wants to break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the U.S. has announced that it will release 80 million doses of vaccines, a step behind China, and the gap between U.S. and Chinese influence in Latin America, like military power, is narrowing.
According to a May 19 report in the Financial Times, Honduran Presidential Minister Carlos Alberto Madero said that Honduras wants to avoid damaging its longstanding ties with Taiwan, but that getting the vaccine is more important than anything else. As they watch China help its friend, the Honduran people are beginning to wonder, “Why aren’t our allies helping?” He said this could lead to a change in foreign policy. After that, it was rumored that Honduras might abandon Taiwan and turn to Beijing diplomatically for the vaccine issue.
According to Johns Hopkins University, which tracks the immediate situation in New Guan, by May 20, Honduras, with a total population of more than 9.4 million, had 229,211 confirmed cases of the virus and 6,051 deaths.
In comparison, among Taiwan’s other diplomatic countries, Nicaragua, with a population of more than 6 million, has 7,193 infections and 185 deaths, while Haiti has 13,598 infections and 276 deaths. The situation in Honduras is relatively much more dire, but less than 1 percent of the population has been vaccinated against the new crown.
World Bank data for 2019 shows that Honduras has a GDP per capita of just over $2,500. In addition, the country not only lacks infrastructure and has a poor standard of living, but also has a large number of smugglers heading to the United States each year. With the epidemic raging, purchasing vaccines has become a top priority for the country.
Comment: Using vaccines as political bargaining chips
Taiwan Society of International Law Deputy Secretary General Lin Ting-hui told the Voice of America: “You can see this wave, they (Honduras) national economic state of the situation is not good, coupled with the infection of the new crown pneumonia, and no funds to buy vaccines, in terms of business is not reached, unless there is political force involved.”
Lin Ting-Hui, Deputy Secretary General of the International Law Institute of Taiwan (Photo by Chen Yun)
The Honduran Ministry of Health said via Twitter on May 10 that El Salvador will buy vaccines from China for Honduras. El Salvador, a former diplomatic partner of Taiwan, broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2018 and established diplomatic relations with Beijing.11 On the 11th, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández mentioned that he might seek to build “diplomatic bridges” in order to obtain Chinese vaccines, as suggested by China. The Financial Times reported on the 19th that Madero’s claim that foreign policy could change because of the vaccine is now even clearer, “further forcing Taiwan and the United States to respond”.
A similar situation has occurred in Paraguay, another of Taiwan’s diplomatic neighbors. In March, Paraguay’s foreign minister said in a televised interview that the U.S. and Taiwan must respond to Paraguay’s vaccine needs, and he said China was “very interested” in working with Paraguay.
However, some commentators have suggested that Taiwan’s diplomatic neighbors are threatening a possible change in foreign policy with Taiwan in order to get the vaccine, forcing Taiwan and the United States to provide the vaccine they desperately need.
Playing the Taiwan card to get U.S. attention?
The purpose of these two countries (Honduras and Paraguay) playing the Taiwan card is to make the U.S. especially able to find ways to take care of it,” said Lin Tinghui. I think the U.S. may also be concerned about Honduras and Paraguay for this reason. So I think, on the contrary, Honduras in this wave, is playing the Taiwan card than to say that the concept of breaking off diplomatic relations with Taiwan may be a little more, it just said that this approach to seek the help of the United States.”
The U.S. government has announced that it will donate 20 million doses of the new crown vaccine produced by Modena, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson on top of its previous commitment to provide 60 million doses of AstraZeneca’s new crown vaccine, and said that the 80 million doses will far exceed the number of vaccines donated by any other country so far.
A senior U.S. official said in an interview with the Financial Times that Latin America ranks as one of the priorities for the 80 million doses of New Crown vaccine that the Biden administration has pledged to release by the end of June. He also said the Biden administration would provide help for Honduras along with other countries, but did not offer a specific timetable. However, Honduran officials told the media on May 19 that although they have approached and received a promise from Washington to provide the vaccine, they have received nothing so far.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry: Taiwan-Hong Kong solid friendship
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Taiwan-Hong Kong diplomatic relations are solid and friendly, and mentioned on May 21 that 13 friendly countries have proposed to invite Taiwan to participate in the World Health Assembly as an observer, and Honduras is among them.
Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokesman Ou Jiang-an (Photo by Chen Yun)
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ou Jiang-an told Voice of America, “For China’s shameful act of still attempting to use vaccines as a way to force countries with urgent needs to exchange political and diplomatic conditions for benefits, disregarding the health and humanitarian needs of the people of Honduras, the Foreign Ministry once again sternly condemns it.”
It is reported that Honduras signed a contract with the U.S. company Pfizer on the 17th to purchase 4.4 million doses of vaccines, and Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it believes it will help alleviate the current public health crisis situation faced by Honduras, and pointed out that the funding for this procurement case is not paid for by Taiwan’s cooperation funds.
In addition, according to Taiwan’s diplomatic officials privately told the Voice of America, Honduras paid for the vaccine, and Taiwan is a joint idea of similar countries to facilitate the early acquisition of Honduras, not completely unrelated to Taiwan, “but can not speak too clearly, we play the role of the right time and right amount”.
The game between the United States, China and Taiwan in Latin America
Huang Kuibo, director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the School of International Affairs at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, said that although the epidemic has given China the opportunity to intervene, it has also highlighted that cross-strait relations are the key to diplomacy. If cross-strait relations are maintained properly, Taiwan’s diplomatic relations will not be affected even if the mainland wants vaccine aid.
Huang Kui Bo told the Voice of America: “Vaccines certainly make a lot of diplomatic strategic considerations change, but then how the changes are ultimately because cross-strait relations have collapsed, so cross-strait diplomacy has become closer to a ‘zero-sum race’, ‘zero-sum game ‘ model, such a model will be the smaller side of the loss of Taiwan.”
Huang Kui-Bo, director of National Chengchi University in Taiwan (provided by Huang Kui-Bo)
The U.S. has a little more influence in Latin America because of its geographic location, Kui-Bo Huang said. However, China is also using various means, including vaccines or economic and trade markets, to expand its influence in Latin American countries, which the U.S. is deeply alarmed about, because it means that China “has eaten into the backyard of the United States. Huang Kui Bo believes that although the U.S. has announced that it will release a large number of vaccines, China is still one step ahead of the U.S. in saying that it will sell the vaccines abroad or cheaply.
Huang said: “The United States is slow to start, the vaccine early to get early to save lives, these Latin American countries are also very clear, who is willing to give who will deal with. Do not dare to say that the United States (in Latin America) power is larger or smaller than China, but I think it is a bit like the United States and China military power, mainland China actually put the gap in narrowing.”
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