With a year and a half to go before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, there has been much speculation about the personnel of the Politburo. At first, many of them were based on the personnel adjustment rules of recent sessions, but since Xi Jinping came to power, many personnel rules have been broken. The outside world analyzes that there may be big changes in the personnel changes of the 20th Congress.
Hong Kong media “Ming Pao” op-ed said that the first possible change is that “seven up and eight down” may become “seven down and eight up”, which mainly refers to the age of the line of hard indicators may no longer exist. In fact, the “older on, younger off” this situation, four years ago in the 19th Congress has a precedent, such as born in November 1950, then Vice President Li Yuanchao retired, than his three months older then Director of the Central Office Li Zhanshu was promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee; another example is over 67 years of age of the military commission member Zhang Yuman can join the Bureau, then 64 years of age Liu Qibao, Zhang Chunxian but both out to the CPPCC NPC retirement. The only criterion for these changes is Xi Jinping’s trust.
According to the article, next year at the 20th National Congress, some senior officials who seem bound to retire, such as Executive Vice Premier Han Zheng, Vice Premier Liu He, and Chen Xi, head of the Central Organization Department, may not retire or may not retire altogether, but may continue their political lives in some form or even go to the next level. And next year’s Premier Li Keqiang, who is also 67 years old, CPPCC Chairman Wang Yang and Wang Huning, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee in charge of party affairs, may not all stay in office.
The article said that the second possible change in the 20th National Congress is that individual second-tier NPC and CPPCC officials may move up the ladder. Recently, rumors of He Lifeng, vice chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and head of the National Development and Reform Commission, entering the next term have been rife and may come true.
As we approach the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), there is a lot of attention on the personnel layout of the top echelon of the CPC. There is an unwritten rule that the top level of the Chinese Communist Party will be replaced by the so-called “seven up and eight down”, and since the 16th CPC Congress held in 2002, no Politburo member or Politburo Standing Committee member has been re-elected or re-elected in the year they reach 68 years old.
At the 20th National Congress next year, at least 11 of the 24 current Politburo members will reach the retirement age limit of 68. It is even more interesting to see who will fill the vacancies.
Xi Jinping is well aware of this, and has been laying out his plans since 2020. Only one month into 2021, he has released three signals to warn all factions.
As the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China draws near, the infighting in the Communist Party of China has become more intense, and all factions are striving for a “new term” in order to secure a place in the 20th National Congress. At the same time, the “20th Congress” will also decide whether Xi Jinping will stay or go. External analysis says that the internal strife in the CCP in 2021 will reveal its overall, structural and systemic characteristics.
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