There is a logical conflict in the freshly released census data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics for which no reasonable explanation has been seen so far. Let’s continue our analysis today. First, we must have a clear understanding of the current census technology. This census is, in fact, a census based on the public security department’s electronic household registration information, or what we call an electronic census.
News related to China’s 2020 birth population
In fact, China has been implementing electronic household registration information for more than 6 years. In recent years, the relevant information system has been improved, and the phenomenon of ID card duplication has been gradually resolved. It can be said that people who are not in the household registration information system are now very rare, and the error rate will not exceed one in a thousand. Even in small villages in remote mountainous areas, along with the strengthening of China’s grassroots organizations and the comprehensive development of poverty alleviation work, household registration has become the most basic requirement, and the phenomenon of having a baby without a household has almost ceased to exist. Let’s put it this way, nowadays unless your family stays in the deep forest as a wild man, does not belong to any social organization, and does not have any commodity transactions with the outside world, but if you have a baby dare not to go to the household, the village secretary will let you know precisely why the horse king was born with three eyes. Therefore, the technical difficulty of the seventh census is actually very low, in many areas are completed by electronic means such as SMS census, in fact, just a reconfirmation of the electronic information of household registration.
Understanding this point, we can understand more deeply. In fact, the census work is not very meaningful now. It’s not like ten years ago or twenty years ago, everyone’s information is now in the system. If the National Bureau of Statistics to come out and say that there are tens of millions of people are not in the system, to rely on the statistical survey team to go door to door and walk through the woods to find these people, the public security department can jump up and down to scold people. Really need to conduct household surveys, mainly relocated population, such as the old barbarian me, the previous year in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, last year, and then transferred to Guangxi this year, maybe next year and transferred to where. This situation requires coordination between the two statistical departments, do not make duplicate statistics, but the possibility of omission is not there. That’s all.
At a press conference on the same day, May 11, China’s National Bureau of Statistics gave a few very interesting figures: the number of births has continued to go down since 2018, and the big number of births in 2020 is 12 million.
Let me clarify here that the 2020 birth figure was only mentioned in the press conference, it was not released in the census bulletin. Let’s just take that verbal data at face value here. Now we can start doing the math. the 2020 census results in a total population size of 141.78 million, minus a total population of 14.05 million in 2019, an increment of 11.73 million.
Guys, you must clearly understand that the population increment does not come out of thin air, it comes from the current year’s births – deaths. the big number of births in China in 2020 is 12 million and the population increment is 11.73 million, so the number of deaths in China in 2020 = 12 million – 11.73 million = 270,000. What does this mean ？？？？
To further illustrate this, I put out the number of births and deaths from 1990 to the present and put in the data for 2020 to form the data in the table below.
Evolution of China’s birth and death data since 1990 (tabulated by the author)
I really don’t know how to analyze the fact that only 270,000 people died in 2020. This is probably due to the fact that people paid special attention to health care during last year’s new crown, huh?
In addition, China’s National Bureau of Statistics gave some explanations for the logical lack of self-consistency in the data, such as the previous years’ data being sample survey data and some population omissions. In fact, after the electronic registration information, the sample survey has been accurate enough, but we won’t dwell on this matter. So, which years are the data distorted?
Population growth never comes out of thin air, it must come from births-deaths. One very important piece of information: the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) clearly stated in its press conference the number of births for 2016-2020, which means that the NBS is not going to revise the birth data for those years upwards. The only possibility, then, if the population increase in the previous years was undercounted, is that the deaths in recent years were overcounted.
There is really no possibility of overcounting the death figures in China. This data is aggregated by the health and public security departments and is based on “death certificates”. It may miss some of the deaths in remote areas, but it will never be overcounted, and it is unlikely to be overcounted by millions. What do you think the health department is trying to do by issuing tens of millions of death certificates? Is that a possibility?
So, I personally just can’t understand where this 10 million population increase came from out of nowhere. It must be the result of the number of births – deaths. The number of births will not be revised upwards, and the possibility of a bubble in the number of deaths is very slim.