Tesla suspends expansion of Shanghai plant; China’s semiconductors lag two to three generations behind; Maotai evaporates trillions in 5 consecutive drops

Recently, the verdict of Dai Zisheng, the former president of the Xinjing News, has been released. He was “doubly fired” last year for allegedly offending Xi Jinping’s authority, and the newspaper had a front-page story about Xi with a picture of the emperor under the headline.

On May 11, China’s seventh census data was released, with numerous errors and omissions that raised widespread questions.

On Monday, independent Chinese economic commentator Barbarian Warrior wrote that the biggest trouble facing China’s economy is the disappearing demographic dividend and the declining number of migrant workers.

China’s semiconductor industry is losing money! Not only have huge state investments created a number of bad projects, but the surviving semiconductor manufacturers are also living off government subsidies and, more sadly, are still two to three generations behind their rivals in terms of technology.

Recently electric car maker Tesla decided to suspend the expansion of the Shanghai plant, where is the reason?

Maotai 5 consecutive falls! 3 months market value evaporated 950 billion yuan.

Xi Jinping” under the title with the emperor figure, the former president of the “New Beijing News” sin into

The former president of “Xinjing News” Dai Zigian was “double-opened” last year, that is, expelled from the party and public office, and also charged with bribery, recently out of a Beijing First Intermediate People’s Court on Friday (7) issued an executive ruling, the contents of Dai bribery case has been decided, and was frozen about 16.33 million yuan (about 1. 9.77 million Hong Kong dollars) of bank deposits, The ruling did not mention the length of the sentence. It was previously rumored that Dai had been sentenced to eight years in the first trial, but there has been no official confirmation.

Beijing’s Xinjing Daily, known for its outspokenness, has repeatedly resisted pressure from the authorities to publish “erroneous” stories that monitor public power and even satirize leaders, and is considered an anomaly by the propaganda ministry. Under the headline “Xi Jinping becomes chairman of the Central State Security Commission,” a photo of the emperor in Qing Dynasty costume arrived.

Photo: The front page of the January 25, 2014 edition of the New Beijing News suspected Xi Jinping of being “an emperor.

Dai Zigian was one of the founders of the newspaper, and was a strong supporter of the outspoken Southern Weekend during the Nan Zhou incident. The Beijing Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision announced in March last year that Dai Zisheng, former deputy party secretary, vice chairman and general manager of Beijing Municipal Culture Investment and Development Group, had been “doubly fired” for serious disciplinary violations.

Before becoming president and editor-in-chief of the newspaper, Dai worked as an editor and correspondent in Xinjiang for Guangming Daily, another central-level party media, from 1988 to 2006, and was the founding president of the newspaper when Guangming Daily and Southern Metropolis Daily jointly established the newspaper in 2003. He once said that the purpose of running the newspaper was to “tell the truth and the truth. During his time at the helm of the newspaper, he exposed the bloody case of land acquisition in Dingzhou, Hebei Province. The newspaper’s top brass has been repeatedly purged by officials.

The Chinese Communist Party announced a population of more than 1.4 billion, but there are many errors and omissions in the data, leading to widespread questions.

The Chinese Communist Party finally announced the seventh census data. Surprisingly, the population in 2020 exceeded 1.4 billion, with the new population increasing by 1.5 times compared to 2019, and the population aged 65 also surged by 60%.

According to the official announcement, China’s total population volume exceeds 1.4 billion people, although the population aged 15 to 59 accounts for 63% of the total population. However, compared with the 2010 census, the percentage dropped by 6.79 percentage points, and the population aged 60 or older accounted for 18% of the total population, up 5.44 percentage points from 10 years ago, indicating that China’s population aging situation is more serious than 10 years ago.

Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the seventh national census leading group, said that in 2020, compared to 2010, China’s total population increased by 72.06 million people, a 5.35 percent increase over the population 10 years ago, with an average annual growth rate of 0.53 percent, but compared to the census 10 years ago, the average annual growth rate dropped by 0.04 percentage points per year, reflecting that China’s population has maintained a low growth rate over the past 10 years.

The skepticism of mainland Chinese citizens towards this official data is not only based on subjective feelings, but also on the fact that there are indeed many loopholes in the official data.

First of all, demographic expert Yi Fuxian pointed out that the Statistics Bureau had published the number of births projected from elementary school enrolment figures, with 238 million births between 1996 and 2020, but the latest published births for the 14-year period were 253 million, an increase of more than 20 million. Based on this figure, the average annual fertility rate is over 1.6, far higher than all developed countries.

Secondly, according to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics itself, the total number of births per year from 2006 to 2020 adds up to more than 240 million, exactly the same as the cumulative figure just released by the government, which means that the mortality rate from 0 to 14 years old is zero. This would be completely illogical.

Third, the number of births has been going down year by year since 2016, except in 2020, when the epidemic hit, the number of births rose instead of falling, and in 2020 alone, it increased by 26 million people, nearly double the 14 million people in 2019. The birth rate has even broken records since 1991.

What is most puzzling is the sudden increase of 16.41 million people over the age of 65 in 2020, a huge increase of more than 60% from 2019. Looking up the information, all those who turned 65 last year were born in 1955, and the birth rate that year was not an increase but a plunge from previous years, with only 20 million births.

What’s even more bizarre is that according to the official data on net population growth, the number of deaths in 2020 is 14.61 million, up from 9.45 million in 2019, a full increase of nearly 5 million, also a record since the reform and opening up.

Numerous Weibo netizens questioned the official census data. Netizen “martensite phase change” message wrote, a little fake. Others said, “I thought the return of 1.3 billion people”, netizen “bitter moon” mocked, finally came out, we look good, huh, the Bureau of Statistics is not easy, hard work”.

Reuters: Tesla suspends expansion of Shanghai plant as trade war brings uncertain risks

Tesla has suspended plans to buy land to expand its Shanghai plant due to uncertainty caused by the U.S.-China trade war, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The U.S. electric car maker had also planned to make the Shanghai plant a global export center.

In addition to the tariffs imposed on imports from China during the Trump administration, the U.S. is now imposing a 25 percent tariff on electric vehicles imported from China, making Tesla consider limiting China’s share of global production, the sources said.

Sources told Reuters that Tesla had previously considered exporting entry-level Model 3 models made in China to more markets, including the United States. Prior to that, there had been no media coverage of the plan. Tesla’s Model 3s made in China are currently exported to Europe. The company is also building a factory in Germany.

Tesla’s Shanghai plant can produce up to 500,000 vehicles a year, and currently produces the Model 3 and Model Y, with an annual capacity of 450,000 vehicles.

Three sources said Tesla did not bid for a site across the road from the Shanghai plant in March because the company no longer intends to significantly increase its production capacity in China, at least temporarily. However, in a statement sent to Reuters, Tesla said the Shanghai plant is being developed as planned. The Shanghai government did not respond to the Reuters report.

Tesla’s sales in China are growing despite increasing regulatory pressure from the country. Revenue in China reached $3 billion in the first three months of the year, more than triple the amount a year ago and accounting for 30 percent of total revenue.

SMIC received $2.5 billion in government subsidies last year, accounting for nearly 60 percent of net profit

The Chinese Communist Party authorities provide substantial government subsidies to semiconductor companies, with SMIC, for example, receiving nearly $2.5 billion in government subsidies last year, accounting for 57.5 percent of its net profit last year.

Of the 120 Chinese A-share semiconductor companies, 119 received government subsidies last year, amounting to RMB 14.911 billion, accounting for 26.1% of the net profits of A-share semiconductor companies of RMB 57 billion last year.

Japanese media: China’s mainland semiconductor two to three generations behind rivals

Under the impact of U.S. sanctions, China’s semiconductor advanced process development slowed down.

According to the “Nihon Keizai Shimbun” in March of this year held the “2021 China International Semiconductor Exhibition” on a number of Chinese semiconductor companies survey, most companies admitted that the current production of 14 to 28 nanometer chips, at least 2 to 3 generations behind rivals.

A researcher at Amicro Semiconductor Equipment Corporation (AMEC) said the company can provide machines for 5nm process, but mainly sells machines for 14nm and 28nm process.

As the only Chinese manufacturer of commercial lithography machines, engineers at Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment (SMEE) said that the lithography machines they make are mainly for 90nm, and there is a lot of room for improvement in terms of 28nm and 14nm yields.

The shortage of semiconductor parts, materials and manufacturing equipment under U.S. sanctions has further dragged down the performance of China’s semiconductor foundries.

Maotai drops 5 straight, market cap evaporates 950 billion yuan in 3 months

As of May 10, on the Chinese stock market, Maotai fell for 5 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 9% and an intraday drop below 1,900 yuan, from a high of 2,627 yuan in February, less than 3 months, Maotai lost nearly 950 billion yuan in market value.

Guizhou Maotai, since the April 28 release of the 2021 quarterly report, as of May 10, fell for five consecutive trading days, a cumulative decline of more than 9%, the market value shrunk by more than 240 billion yuan.

Laoban: China’s economy faces biggest trouble

China’s economy has been supported by a large group of migrant workers for many years, and with the disappearance of China’s demographic dividend, China’s migrant worker base is shrinking and becoming the biggest problem facing China’s economic growth, an independent economic commentator specializing in data analysis wrote on Monday.

On May 10, Laoban published an article titled “Migrant workers have no future,” saying that after China joined the WTO in 2001, the demographic dividend became the biggest driver of economic growth in the past 20 years, and the huge group of migrant workers supported China’s position as the world’s largest basic manufacturing country, producing 20 percent of the world’s final consumer goods. Now, with China’s demographic dividend running out and the overall loss of growth of migrant workers, China’s economy is in the midst of its biggest trouble, bar none.

According to the bulletin of China National Bureau of Statistics’ migrant worker survey in the past years, Old Barbarian collected the important data on the bulletin from 2008 to 2020 and compiled a table of “Migrant Worker Data Tracking”.

Migrant workers data tracking

Laoban elaborates several key points of the table as follows.

First, in 2008, the average age of migrant workers was 34 years old, and in 2020, the average age reaches 41.4 years old, which shows that the group of Chinese migrant workers is aging. At this overall aging rate, the average age of migrant workers will be over 45 years old by 2025. It is never possible to expect a group of middle-aged and elderly people to continue to maintain China’s status as a major basic manufacturing country.

According to Laoban, this set of data on the average age of migrant workers shows exactly the trend of China’s aging population. When the average age of the core labor force exceeds 40 years old, the demographic dividend has been depleted. What is more troublesome is that this group of 280 million aging migrant workers does not have any retirement and medical protection. Thus, within 5 years at the earliest, China will be faced with hundreds of millions of old and helpless workers who have no more strength, cannot find new jobs, and cannot enjoy pension benefits. This may be something that China’s top designers have not even thought about.

Second, the number of migrant workers engaged in manufacturing reached a peak of 87.61 million in 2016 and has been on a downward path since then, dropping to 77.97 million by 2020, an 11.0% drop in four years.

What is of concern is that the expansion of China’s property bubble has not led to an increase in construction employment, according to Laoban. The number of migrant workers in construction peaked at 61.88 million in 2015 and shrank to 52.26 million by 2020, a 15.5 percent decline over five years, which is greater than the decline in manufacturing. One of the reasons may be that migrant workers as a whole are getting older and the number of migrant workers who can withstand the strong physical labor on construction sites has decreased as a whole; at the same time, the rising express and take-away industries have absorbed more young migrant workers, and it is always more comfortable to take orders and deliver orders on motorbikes than to go into construction sites, so although China is full of construction sites in residential communities, it has also lost the ability to absorb the new generation of migrant workers.

Third, the number of migrant workers with college education or above is increasing, from 13.4 million (5.3% of the total number of migrant workers) in 2011 when data are available, to 34.84 million (12.2%) in 2020. This set of data reveals a phenomenon: there is basically no way out for college students from rural areas, and most of them can only go to work as migrant workers.

Fourthly, the number of migrant workers going to work abroad, after reaching a peak of 176.49 million in 2016, decreases to 169.59 million by 2020, down by 3.9%.

This shows that migrant workers as a whole are getting older and more and more reluctant to go out of town; the new generation of migrant workers are no longer willing to enter factories and construction sites, and prefer to deliver couriers, according to Laoban. I don’t know what the situation will be like in a few years. By 2025 at the latest, China may really enter the dead end of the economy without workers.