Some localities in China have now released data on their household population in the 2020 statistical bulletin. The data show that at least 14 cities with decreasing household registration populations, including Shenyang and Wuxi, are mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Yangtze River Delta regions.
According to incomplete statistics, the 14 cities with decreasing household registration populations in 2020 are Shenyang, Wuxi, Huludao, Anshan, Heihe, Fushun, Weihai, Zhoushan, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Yancheng, Zhenjiang, Shaoxing and Changzhou, according to a May 6 report by the mainland media “First Financial News”.
Among them, the latest statistical bulletin of Shenyang, the only megacity in the northeast, shows that the city’s household population at the end of 2020 was 7.622 million. The population birth rate is 6.68 per thousand, 1.67 thousand points lower than the previous year, and the sex ratio of the birth population is 107.1; the population mortality rate is 10.02 per thousand, 1.71 thousand points higher. The natural population growth rate was -3.34 per thousand, down 3.38 thousand points.
Firstrade reported that this is not the first time that Shenyang’s household population growth rate is negative. According to the city’s statistical bulletin, the growth rates of Shenyang’s household population were 1.18‰, -2.53‰, -0.61‰ and 0.04‰ from 2016 to 2019.
Outside of Shenyang, there are several cities in Northeast China with negative population growth rates in 2020, including Huludao at -7.38‰, Anshan at -5.91‰, Heihe at -2.9‰, and Fushun already as low as -13.3‰. And this is only the data of some cities, there are still many northeastern cities in 2020 household population has not been announced. Combined with the data for 2019, most northeastern cities already have negative population growth rates.
The data show that in 2019, the growth rate of resident population in Liaoning is -0.8‰, Jilin is -0.85‰ and Heilongjiang is -1.01‰. In other words, the population growth rate of the entire Northeast region has been negative.
The data show that there is currently a net outflow of population from all three northeastern provinces. Among them, there is a net outflow of 179,900 people from Heilongjiang, 110,300 people from Jilin and 41,100 people from Liaoning in 2019.
Cities with declining populations include not only Northeastern cities, but also Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou, Shaoxing, Zhoushan and Weihai, which belong to the developed eastern coastal regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong, which are the most densely populated in Jiangsu, the second largest economic province.
In Jiangsu, the second largest economic province in China, the overall birth rate and natural growth rate of the population is low. Data show that the natural growth rate of Jiangsu’s population in 2019 was 2.08 ‰, down 0.21 thousandths of a point from the previous year, a figure that ranks sixth from the bottom of the country and is only higher than, for example, the northeast.
In addition, Shaoxing and Zhoushan in Zhejiang and Weihai in Shandong also saw population declines.
The reason for the population decline in these cities is largely related to the aging of the population, according to the report. 2019, the top four economic provinces in terms of total GDP, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang three have entered the stage of deep aging.
Professor Dong Yucheng, president of the Guangdong Institute of Population Development, believes that without adjustments to the fertility policy, China’s birth population is likely to fall below the 10 million mark in the next five years, according to the current trend.
The change in population will lead to a more pronounced division between cities. As the young population continues to gather in large and medium-sized cities, the outflow of population from small and medium-sized cities will affect their property markets and consumption.
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