The ups and downs, the vicissitudes! Trump, who has been calling the shots on Twitter, is starting to “lose his fans” like crazy. After Election Day, he was losing followers almost every day, and by the 27th, he had about 88,849,000 followers, and about 70,000 users had unfollowed him compared to November 22nd. At the same time, Biden’s Twitter following was growing rapidly. On Nov. 25 alone, Biden added 260,000 followers.
Trump’s tone has also shifted, saying in response to media questions during the Thanksgiving holiday that he would leave the White House if the electoral college confirmed that Biden had won the election, “I’m sure I will, you all know that”. The U.S. media described it as the closest Trump has come so far to admitting defeat.
But has Trump, who is known as a “madman,” really conceded defeat? Of course not, and he had a postscript, saying that he “won’t be spending Thanksgiving at the White House for the last time”. For Trump, admitting defeat is difficult, whether it’s because it’s hard to get him to face reality, or because Trump has the evidence and has prepared a back-up plan and is reluctant to admit it so early. There is much speculation that Trump is still fighting for a chance to turn the tide, and that he has one last “magic trick” up his sleeve.
After the election, Trump did not show his face for more than ten days in a row, making people speculate what he is planning.
First, a strategy to get Biden “less than 270 legitimate electoral votes”.
Trump has yet to admit defeat, and Pennsylvania federal judge Patricia McCullough also issued an emergency order on Nov. 25 that state officials cannot continue to certify the results of the election. In response to this, the online media, the Waterglass Institute of Politics and Economics recently published an article stating that the primary goal of Trump’s election litigation team is to keep Biden’s “undisputed” electoral votes from 12/8, 12/14, 12/23 to 2021/1/6 to less than 270, which is not the threshold for election.
In fact, as of the 25th of December, Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are still undecided, and Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled on the 25th of December that the state’s certification is suspended, “Therefore, Biden’s undisputed votes = 306-16-20=270. The next states to start their election lawsuits and hearings are Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16), with a total of 32 electoral votes.
According to the Waterglass Institute of Politics and Economics, the Trump team’s main calculation should be subtraction, not addition: “For the Trump team, it’s getting Biden to legally certify fewer than 270 electoral votes.
There are three main paths to making the electoral vote controversial or undecided: 1. the courts (at the state or federal level) decide through an election lawsuit, as has happened in Pennsylvania; 2. the governor and state legislature may send a different electoral vote result to Congress; 3. the popular vote margin is too small, according to state law. If one side does not give up, it may remain stuck in the recount and vote count process, as in Georgia.
If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes by January 6 next year, Congress will hold a contingent election to determine the outcome of the election: the House of Representatives will elect the President and the Senate will elect the Vice President.
The internal “purge” will continue.
Trump Begins “Purge” of Defense Policy Council. The Trump administration suddenly fired several members of the Defense Policy Board, including former Secretary of State Kissinger, who, at 97, had previously urged Biden to “go easy” on China, according to media reports. It is believed that Trump will continue to show a tougher side towards China, and it seems that “anti-China” is part of his strategy to win over the incoming president in the coming time.
CNN cited two officials as saying that the fired members included Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, former senior member of the House Intelligence Committee Jane Harman, and former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
The report also said that other members removed from the committee include retired Admiral Gary Roughead, former Secretary of Naval Operations, and Rudy De Leon, former Pentagon Chief Technology Advisor. Roughead warned last year that the U.S. “might lose” if it went to war with China in Asia.
CNN mentioned that the move raised alarms among U.S. military and civilian officials, who expressed concern about what might happen next.
Accelerating Madness in Foreign Policy
Already in the final stages of his term, Trump’s foreign policy is accelerating. First, he continues to withdraw from the world. The U.S. recently announced its withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, bringing new contradictions with many countries; the second is the urgent withdrawal of troops from around the world. Trump recently announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Germany and other places, Washington plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq to 2,500 each by January 15, creating an obstacle for Biden; Third, accelerate the sale of arms. Trump signed and approved more than $23 billion worth of arms sales to the United Arab Emirates.
Outside analysts say that Trump’s withdrawal is ostensibly a fulfillment of a campaign promise he made four years ago. In essence, the move, like the recent escalation of hostilities with China, is an attempt to use his last days in office to create a trap for the next president, Biden, to create problems, thereby reducing his diplomatic space and laying the groundwork for the continuation and resurgence of his political influence.
Trump issued an executive order on March 12 banning U.S. companies from investing in 31 Chinese companies identified by the U.S. as having ties to the military, and the sanctions list is expanding. There is speculation that the China policy will be a powerful tool for Trump to continue his struggle for political power, and a “tightening spell” will be placed on Biden’s head, as he will be accused of being “pro-China” if he makes the slightest adjustment.
- Waging War
This is not alarmist talk, as a senior Israeli official revealed on Nov. 25 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has recently been instructed to prepare for a possible U.S. attack on Iran.
Axios quoted a senior Israeli official as saying on Nov. 25 that the last two months before current U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office will be a “very sensitive period. The official said that the Israeli government’s move was not a confirmation that a U.S. attack was “imminent,” but rather that Israeli government officials believed that Israel would not have enough time to prepare if the United States did attack.
And as recently as November 16, the New York Times quoted current and former U.S. officials as saying that Trump was considering the possibility of an attack on Iran’s major nuclear facilities in the coming weeks, and asked his advisers at a meeting in the Oval Office whether such an option existed and how to respond. But he was warned by officials.
Over the past two weeks, Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Miller and Israeli Defense Minister Gantz have spoken twice on the phone to discuss Iran, Syria, and defense cooperation. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a secret visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday (22nd) to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Salman and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to discuss Iran and other issues. Pompeo was on a Middle East trip, and U.S. officials said that all options against Iran were on the table.
On the 21st, two U.S. B52H strategic bombers flew directly from the mainland to the Persian Gulf, claiming to deter aggression and reassure allies and partners in the region.
Of course, the risk of war is not limited to Iran; Yang Chengjun, a senior researcher at the PLA’s Nuclear Security Research Center, recently wrote that Trump still has illusions about re-election and is struggling. Over the next month or so, China will be closely watching and on high alert for Trump’s final madness. He also pointed out that “there is no hope for peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait, and the Party Central Committee will make a decision in due time.
Yang Chengjun stressed that the one who wants China to fight a war and face enemies on all sides is of course Trump. If China follows his wishes and fights directly or indirectly with U.S. forces in various strategic directions, such as the China-India border, the Taiwan Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea, Trump will become a wartime president and be re-elected naturally. China must be vigilant against the incitement and instigation of hostile forces coming from different directions and faces; in a situation where there is no hope for peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait, Yang Chengjun firmly believes that the central government will make wise and decisive decisions in a timely manner, and that the PLA officers and soldiers will be able to attack and win the war.
Of course, I still hope that Trump’s strange tactics will not make the world go crazy. I believe that the best outcome for not only the United States, but also for the whole world, is that the U.S. election will come to a successful conclusion, the transition of power will be smooth, and the new president will be finalized by legal procedures.
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