The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held next year, and it is generally believed that Xi Jinping will seek re-election, but speculation continues as to who will be his potential successor, commonly known as the “spare tire. According to an article published by a major foreign media outlet, Xi’s future successor is likely to be seen at next year’s 20th Communist Party Congress. There are three possible candidates.
According to an analysis in a May 4 article by Beijing-based Dovetail, the Chinese National People’s Congress (NPC) held in March this year gave the NPC Standing Committee greater powers, including the ability to decide on the appointment and removal of members of the State Council, including vice premiers, and on the appointment and removal of other members of the Central Military Commission, including vice chairmen of the military commission, when the NPC is not in session.
According to the article, this change leaves room for the adjustment of the personnel of vice premiers and vice chairmen of the military commission. It cannot be ruled out that the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will use this latest empowerment to prepare for the adjustment of the succession positions at the top of the CPC before the 20th CPC Congress. Therefore, by the 20th CPC National Congress, it is likely to see the shadow of Xi’s future successor.
The article analyzes who will be Xi’s successor. Chen Miner, a relatively young member of the Politburo and secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Committee, Hu Chunhua, a member of the Politburo and vice premier of the State Council, and Li Qiang, a member of the Politburo and secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Committee, are considered more likely candidates.
Hu Chunhua, born in 1963, is considered to be Hu Jintao’s successor groomed in alternate generations. He has served as governor of Hebei Province, secretary of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Party Committee, and member of the CPC Politburo and secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. After the fall of Sun Zhengcai, who was also a popular candidate, Hu Chunhua kept a low profile and ended up as a member of the Politburo, serving as vice premier of the State Council and head of the State Council Leading Group for Poverty Alleviation and Development, taking on Xi Jinping’s so-called hard task of poverty eradication.
Xi Jinping claims that the CCP has succeeded in eradicating poverty across the board, but even the official media has recently falsified rare reports. Hu Chunhua was also involved in a 20-year anti-corruption investigation in Inner Mongolia, where he was once in charge, so it is unknown whether Hu Chunhua will rise to power in the future.
According to a previous article by current affairs commentator Situ Jian, Hu Chunhua should be Li Keqiang’s successor as premier, partnering with Xi Jinping as the weakest premier in the future.
Born in 1959, Li Qiang is the oldest of the three, and he is an important member of Xi’s army, having been Xi Jinping’s secretary-general when he was secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee. After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Li Qiang served as governor of Zhejiang Province, secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee and secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, making him the first senior official to head three provinces and cities in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Many analysts believe that, as a close friend of Xi Jinping and the “head” of the municipality of Shanghai, Li Qiang, although very likely to be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee at the 20th CPC National Congress next year, is only one of the candidates for premier, i.e. Li Keqiang’s successor, competing with Hu Chunhua.
Chen Miner, born in 1960, is an important member of Xi’s army. He has served as governor of Guizhou, secretary of the provincial party committee and secretary of the Chongqing municipal party committee since the 18th CPC National Congress. According to an analysis by Dovetail, the recent transfer of Wang Fu, former secretary general of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, to executive vice mayor of Chongqing is a signal that Chen Miner’s position will change. Chen Miner may be the first person to be appointed by the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party’s National People’s Congress using its latest empowerment to appoint officials at the vice state level.
Chen Miner has long been rumored to be Xi Jinping’s key groomed successor. Chen Miner was “exclusively” praised by the central inspection team in early February for clearing up the “poison” of ambitious Sun Zhengcai, Bo Xilai and others, prompting increased speculation that he may be Xi Jinping’s “spare tire” (successor). The “successor” to Xi Jinping has been speculated.
Columnist Zheng Zhongyuan said in an earlier article in the Taiwanese newspaper Shangpao that no one doubts Xi’s attempts to seek long-term rule. However, given the internal and external problems of the CCP regime and the openness of anti-Xi voices inside and outside the party, even if Xi is re-elected, he may not prepare his future successor, or “spare tire” as it is commonly called, internally so that the patriarchs will have nothing to say. Xi may try to serve another term and then manipulate the political situation behind the scenes.
According to the article, it is increasingly likely that Chen Miner, secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, will be Xi’s future “spare tire” in advance. But no matter how Xi Jinping prepares his “spare tire” for a lifetime in power, or how ambitious Chen Miner is, or how the official circles are infighting over it, man’s plan is not as good as God’s. Because Xi Jinping has been named by netizens as the “Chief Accelerator,” meaning the one who accelerates the demise of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is like Chongzhen, and Chen Miner, the crown prince-to-be, wants to ascend to the throne after Xi, but in the end, he will be waiting in vain.
As Dovetail also said earlier, Chen Miner, Hu Chunhua and Li Qiang each have their own strengths, and it is too early to say which of them will be Xi Jinping’s successor. Realpolitik is often more complex, and it will be worth watching how Xi Jinping chooses his successor and how the political situation in China evolves in the coming year.
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