India’s epidemic continues to soar with a record number of new cases and deaths in a single day. India’s Ministry of Health said Thursday morning (29) that in the past 24 hours, 379,000 new cases have been confirmed and 3,645 deaths have occurred. On average, 2.5 people die every minute. Why is there a sudden outbreak in India? Will it affect other countries?
India’s epidemic “curve” has almost turned into a “straight line” and will not come down in May
In the past month since late March, the number of confirmed cases in India has risen at a very fast pace, almost from a “curve” to a frightening “vertical line”. And it is still on the rise. Many epidemiologists and public health experts are predicting that the future is bleak, and that the rising curve will be difficult to smooth out by May.
For more than a month now, from late March, new confirmed cases in India have been rising at a very fast pace. (Health 1+1/The Epoch Times)
The number of deaths in India is also rising rapidly. (Health 1+1/The Epoch Times)
The Indian healthcare system is now overwhelmed and it is now up to the international medical support to see if it can survive this wave.
In fact, in November last year, India experienced an epidemic peak when the Indian healthcare system was overwhelmed, but the wave lasted only a short time and came down. However, as recently as the beginning of April this year, the Indian epidemic was close to its peak value in November, but failed to draw attention to the fact that, apparently, Indian officials were overly optimistic about the epidemic. It was not until the end of April that the international media noticed the open burning of corpses in India, which shocked the world. (Recommended reading: India’s epidemic tragedy, all-night digging of graves, temporary park burial)
The peak of the epidemic last November was short-lived, and the infected population was mostly concentrated in low-income communities with high population density and poor medical facilities. But this year the situation has been different, with the number of infections in affluent communities also soaring and the overall situation already very serious.
In a very short period of time, India has far exceeded the number of confirmed infections in the U.S. compared to the U.S., and even more so in other countries at the peak of the epidemic.
The problem facing other countries is how to stabilize the current epidemic; the problem facing India is when the outbreak will end.
Moreover, the epidemic in India is not a “one place outbreak → spread to everywhere” pattern, the epidemic in many parts of India is soaring at the same time, multiple places are the source of the epidemic, for how to deploy medical resources, contain the epidemic, are a big challenge.
Why India?
Multiple factors have led to the outbreak in India. The main one is the rapid spread of the Indian variant of virus B.1.617.
- The threat of Indian variant virus
The Indian variant of B.1.617 is more potent than the previous prevalent strains. The Indian variant is known as the “double mutant variant” because it includes two important mutation sites in the stinger protein: E484Q and L452R.
Among them, L452R enhances the ability of the virus to invade cells and immune escape, a mutation also found in the California variant; E484Q helps to enhance the immune escape of the virus and is similar to the mutation at the E484K locus in the South African and Brazilian variants.
Therefore, people who were infected last year, although they have antibodies in their bodies, may not be able to play a major protective role and may still be infected again under this wave of the outbreak.
In addition, there is another alarming phenomenon: many young people have been infected and even died in India this time, in their teens and twenties.
The increased rate of infection in young people is a frightening trend, indicating that the virus is gaining virulence and that the strong immune systems of young people are unable to keep the new variants at bay.
- Vaccines may have limited effect against the variant virus
The main vaccines injected in India are the AstraZeneca vaccine and the indigenous Indian vaccine Covaxin, which by themselves offer protection rates of around 70% and 80%. It may have a reduced rate of protection against Indian variant viruses that contain the ability to escape with immunity.
- A vulnerable healthcare system
When the epidemic soars to a certain level and the medical system cannot keep up, many people infected will not be able to receive timely and effective treatment, leading to a surge in serious illness and death. This is the tragic situation India is facing today.
- The extremely large scale gathering activities of India’s Big Pot Festival have the potential to accelerate the spread of the virus.
- The large and dense population of India also provides “good” conditions for the rapid spread of the virus.
Indian variant B.1.617 has spread, will it affect other countries?
The Indian variant of B.1.617 has shown great adaptability and has developed into the dominant strain in India in a short period of time, and it has been detected in many parts of the country.
India has a large population base and is in close contact with neighboring countries, as well as with large countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Therefore, the outbreak in India not only affects some neighboring countries, such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, but even Bhutan, Nepal, Southeast Asia in the north, and some countries in the Middle East, which is a test for global epidemic prevention.
At present, the Indian variant has been found in about 20 countries and regions, such as the United States, China, Singapore, South Korea, etc.
Although the Indian variant has not yet developed rapid community spread in other countries, it is, however, a great potential danger. This variant has shown to be extremely adaptable and spreadable in India. If it spreads to other countries, it has the potential to become a major mutant strain after 2 to 3 months, like the British variant.
However, now that the outbreak is more than a year old, the situation is very different from the outbreak in Wuhan. If public health officials had been alerted earlier and followed up on the genetic sequencing of the variant in a timely manner, they would have had a basic understanding of the current risk and would have responded appropriately.
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