The latest issue of “The Economist” uses Taiwan’s radar map as its cover, saying Taiwan is “the most dangerous region on earth” and that a war in the Taiwan Strait would be a catastrophe and must be avoided at all costs.
“The Economist said in the article that China and the United States have been highly ambiguous on the issue of Taiwan for decades, allowing Taiwan, with 24 million people, to maintain peace. Beijing claims that there is only one “their” China. The U.S. nodded on the one hand, but for the past 70 years has ensured that there are actually two Chinas. But to this day, that strategic ambiguity is crumbling.
The article says the U.S. is beginning to worry that it may no longer be able to prevent China from committing force against Taiwan. Indo-Pacific commander Phil Davidson (ADM.) expressed fears that China could commit Taiwan as soon as 2027. The Economist notes that war would be a disaster, not just because of the killing and nuclear power rivalry. There would also be an economic disaster. Taiwan is the heartland of the semiconductor industry, and once TSMC’s production lines are suspended, the global electronics industry will come to a halt at incalculable cost. TSMC’s technology and expertise are about a decade ahead of its rivals, and it would take years for the U.S. and China to catch up.
Another more serious reason is that China’s use of force will test the U.S. military strength and its diplomatic and political resolve. If the United States fails to go to Taiwan’s aid, China will become the dominant power in Asia overnight. America’s allies around the world would also recognize that they cannot rely on the United States. The peaceful order the United States has built since World War II would collapse.
The United States realizes that China has been growing its strait military power for 25 years. In a simulated war in which China attacks Taiwan, the United States has already begun to lose. Some military experts conclude that military superiority will eventually induce China to use force against Taiwan, simply because they have the ability to do so.
The Economist says that while Chinese President Xi Jinping is not yet ready to fight a war with mass casualties and economic losses, and that the Communist Party’s 100th anniversary is a strong fight for prosperity and stability, such thinking “can only bring a little relief. No one in the United States really knows what Xi Jinping is thinking, let alone who his successor will be. China’s impatience is likely to grow with each passing day. Xi’s appetite for risk is likely to be higher, especially if he will want to reunify Taiwan as a jewel in his portfolio.
The Economist argues that the United States and Taiwan must plan ahead, and that the United States needs weapons to deter China from launching an invasion. It is best to put all disputes on hold. As Deng Xiaoping said, let future generations solve the puzzle. Taiwan is the most dangerous place on earth, and only the politicians here face such a test.
Recent Comments