In Japan, while prices continue to fall, the authorities announced on the 23rd that Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo and other four places will once again enter a “short but strong” state of emergency from the 25th, for a period of 17 days and covering the “Golden Week” holiday, meaning that businesses The long-awaited business opportunities will be lost.
Economists say that if Japan is still unable to suppress the epidemic of Newcastle pneumonia (Chinese communist virus), or extend the control of economic activities, the economy may fall into a double recession.
As Japan’s recent new crown variant virus is expanding the infection centered on the metropolitan area, the government issued an emergency declaration this time to curb the population movement during the Golden Week. This is Japan’s third emergency declaration since April last year and January this year, which was implemented from April 25 to May 11, and the blockade measures adopted are even stricter than the previous two.
The government requires restaurants that provide alcoholic beverages and backing vocals to temporarily close, large commercial facilities with a total area of 1,000 square meters or more (except for areas selling essential goods) to temporarily close, restaurants that do not provide alcohol to close by 8 p.m., and large events such as sports events and concerts to be held without spectators in principle.
The government has also asked mass transit agencies such as railroads and buses to move up their last train times on weekdays and reduce their shifts on weekends and holidays, and has asked 70% of corporate employees to work long distances.
Since Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo account for about one-third of Japan’s economic output, the state of emergency has dashed hopes for rapid economic recovery. Previously, economists predicted that Japan’s economy will rebound strongly in the second quarter, but if the emergency ends later than originally scheduled, the economic outlook may fall again.
SMBC Nikko Securities chief market economist Maruyama Yoshimasa said, this round of emergency will make the 2nd quarter economic growth rate loss of 4 percentage points, “the key is how much will decline in May, and how much will rebound in June”.
At the same time, Japan’s inflation is still weak. Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) in March than a year ago fell 0.2%, excluding fresh food kernel CPI annual decline of 0.1%, although the rate of decline than the 0.4% reduction in February, but the authorities strictly control economic activities, short-term still difficult to turn positive, from the central bank’s 2% is still far away.
Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to an initial estimate of 53.3 in April, the highest since April 2018, while the services PMI was flat at 48.3, the 15th consecutive monthly contraction.
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