At 22:45 Monday, the preliminary November Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 56.7, beating expectations of 53, the previous value of 53.4; the preliminary November Markit Services PMI recorded 57.7, also beating expectations of 55.3, the previous value of 56.9; the preliminary Manufacturing PMI set a new 74-month high, while the preliminary Services PMI set a new 68-month high. New highs.
Spot gold then lost $1840 per ounce and fell below three consecutive levels, hitting a new low of more than five months. The U.S. dollar index rose 25 points in the short term. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 0.8553%. About an hour later, spot gold was down more than 2% on the day at $1,833.53/oz. After midnight, spot silver extended its decline to 3%.
PMI data very encouraging, but comes at a cost
The economic upturn reflects further strengthening demand, which in turn is encouraging companies to hire at the highest rate since 2009, but stronger economic growth does come at a cost.
The surge in demand and hiring has pushed up prices and wages. Average prices of goods and services are rising at record rates, and supply shortages are more widespread than ever before. Businesses are scrambling to hire talent to meet the growing demand and cope with the increasing workloads ahead. Market expectations for the year ahead have soared to their most optimistic level in more than six years, reflecting both the post-election boost in confidence and the encouraging news that vaccines may return businesses to more normal business conditions in the not-too-distant future.
Without Vaccine Rescue, the Jobs “Hole” is Hard to Fill
Not long ago, Silicon Valley Bank said that AstraZeneca was trying to “fix” the data of the new coronary pneumonia vaccine and that it was expected that AstraZeneca’s new coronary pneumonia vaccine would “never” be licensed in the US.
The FDA’s approval of the emergency authorization and the public’s willingness to get vaccinated are the key concerns of the market. The FDA said it will not discuss the emergency authorization applications of Pfizer and BioNTech until December 10.
At 23:44, CNBC quoted Leonard Schleifer, CEO of Regeneron, as saying that by early January, Regeneron will provide 300,000 doses of its newly authorized neo-crown antibody therapeutics to the United States. After January, the company will be able to provide 100,000 doses per month.
In addition, with the Thanksgiving holiday coming up this week, there is a risk that the epidemic will continue to spread if people in the United States travel or gather despite the outbreak. In the U.K., Prime Minister Johnson said that the lockdown in England will be lifted as planned on December 2, but new measures will be needed to deal with the surge; more areas are expected to have higher restrictions than before, so Christmas will not be as normal this year.
The uncertainty of the epidemic dictates that the U.S. employment gap does not appear to be filling up so quickly. With 10 million people out of work, we still have a “big hole” to fill as far as next steps are concerned, said New York Fed’s market chief, Mr. Singer, late in the evening. State and municipal governments are facing a serious budget crisis.
Last Friday, the Treasury Department asked the Federal Reserve to return unused funds from five emergency loan instruments, and Treasury Secretary Nuchin proposed using the relief funds as part of a new stimulus package. Nuchin and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell discussed the strategy last Friday, the first sign in weeks that the stimulus may be moving forward. So far, Democrats and Republicans have been sharply divided over the size of the new anti-epidemic relief package.
McConnell supports Nuchin’s proposal to tap into the unused $580 billion in funds allocated for Federal Reserve loan guarantees, small business relief, and other anti-pandemic relief programs. If the funds are released soon, they may provide immediate relief to the U.S. job market.
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