The USS Roosevelt carrier battle group and the USS Makin Island amphibious alert group conduct a formation cruise in the South China Sea, April 9, 2021. (Courtesy of the U.S. Navy)
Recently, China has been conducting frequent military exercises in Taiwan waters, leading to increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait and directly implicating the U.S.-Japan alliance in the maritime military ring with China. The U.S. and Japan are clearly aware of the rising threat to Taiwan from the Chinese Communist Party and have made epochal and aggressive moves in both diplomacy and defense towards Taiwan Strait security. At this time, the core of Taiwan, both civil and official, has not seen any strong reaction. Experts point out that the frequent military exercises are for another purpose, while Taiwan’s confidence in its own security has increased due to the support of the expanded front of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Japan’s Defense Ministry announced recently that it had spotted the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and five other warships operating in the waters of Miyako Island, sailing south through international waters. Japan has since dispatched destroyer JS Suzutsuki, including a P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and a P-3C anti-submarine warfare patrol aircraft to monitor Chinese movements.
Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group also entered the South China Sea from the Strait of Malacca, the third time in 2021 that the USS Roosevelt has entered the waters.
On April 12, the Liaoning passed the USS Roosevelt in the opposite direction and has remained stationary 300 kilometers east of Sanya since then. On the same day China sent 25 airplanes to infest the airspace southwest of Taiwan in a suspected coordinated attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier.
China’s frequency of disturbing Taiwan continues to rise
Since last year, the frequency of Chinese military incursions into Taiwan has continued to rise. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, from January to the end of December 2020, Chinese military aircraft and warships continued to intrude into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) more than 1,000 times, with more than 380 of them intruding into Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ and crossing the center line of the Taiwan Strait the highest number in 30 years. Compared to the past, the frequency and intensity of Chinese aircraft and naval intrusions into Taiwan have not only increased, but have also risen significantly.
In early April, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning gradually approached Taiwan waters, and the United States and Japan sent destroyers to monitor its movements, while the Chinese Communist Party was not shy about sending 25 airplanes to infest Taiwan’s southwest airspace.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Liaoning’s sailing in the “waters around Taiwan” is an annual routine exercise to test its military effectiveness and to “improve the protection of national sovereignty”.
Analysis: U.S.-China military exercises aim to seize the right to speak
The former director of the National Defense University’s Political Operations College, General Yu Tsung-ki, told the Voice of America that the number of Chinese aircraft carriers and warplanes and their combat capabilities are currently inferior to those of the United States, so the Liaoning is deliberately avoiding confrontation with U.S. forces. The U.S. also understands this, which is why the destroyers USS Mustin DDG-89 and USS John McCain DDG-56 both avoided a head-on confrontation with the Liaoning in eastern Taiwan.
So, what is the real purpose of both carriers going in and out? Yu believes that the recent U.S.-China military activities in the Taiwan Strait, including this “exercise” between the Liaoning and Roosevelt, are primarily a competition for international media space.
He said, “China wants to show the world that its navy has moved from nearshore to a blue-water navy, that is, that it has the capability to cruise and fight in the ocean. The USS Roosevelt is entering the South China Sea at this point in time, and the U.S. military understands that China is deliberately using the international media to focus on the Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group cruising into the South China Sea for a major outreach. If the Roosevelt carrier battle group enters, it will naturally attract international media attention and coverage.”
Yu Zongji believes that the U.S. and China are competing for international media space in the vicinity of Taiwan waters, rather than actually intending to start a fight. In particular, China’s main purpose in intimidating the Taiwan Strait is not to try to provoke war, but to demonstrate its military power externally and drive public opinion internally. And the release of a photo of the U.S. captain of its destroyer USS Muscatine crossing his legs to monitor the Liaoning’s activities with certainty in Philippine waters was a successful counter to the perception of combat.
He said, “This indicates that the U.S. side has fully exposed the inexperience of the Liaoning carrier battle group above its grasp of the Liaoning, or the defense vulnerabilities that allowed the Mastin to get so close, meaning that the Liaoning carrier battle group is in fact very weak.”
The photo dominated the international media, with continuous headlines in the Taiwanese media and days of discussion on political programs about the “calmness” of the U.S. military in the face of the Chinese aircraft carrier.
Japan takes a stand to maintain security in the Taiwan Strait
The Liaoning’s activities in the waters of Miyako Island have caused tension in Japan, which has sent destroyers to collect information and monitor the Chinese aircraft carrier. From the U.S.-Japan 2+2 talks in March to the recently concluded U.S.-Japan summit, the joint statement explicitly included “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”, which is clearly a common statement by the U.S.-Japan alliance on China’s recent military threats in the Taiwan Strait. Japan has been threatened by China’s continued intrusion into the waters of the Senkaku Islands by aircraft and ships, and it has become Japan’s mission to maintain “peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region” by actively cooperating with the United States to defend the Taiwan Strait.
In an interview with the Voice of America, Song Wendi, a lecturer at the Australian National University’s Asia Pacific Institute, said, “The joint statement from the U.S.-Japan summit shows that Japan has fully demonstrated its confidence and determination as an international leader. Not only will it take a more proactive stance on the disputed issue in the East China Sea, but also emphasize the importance it attaches to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
By domestic polls in Japan, nearly 70% of Japanese people agree that Japan would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a military attack on Taiwan. General Fumio Ota, former head of intelligence at Japan’s Defense Agency, told the Voice of America that Taiwan’s security is a matter of life and death for Japan. The reasons for this are, firstly, that Taiwan is located in an important sea route from the Middle East to Japan, which is the reason why Japan offered to let China cede Taiwan after the Sino-Japanese War. Secondly, Taiwan is located in an important geographical position in the first island chain, which can be reached from Japan to the Philippines via Taiwan. If China took Taiwan, it would have free access to the Pacific Ocean and Japan’s south would be greatly threatened.
He said, “Once China invades Taiwan, not only for an attack on Taiwan but also to control its surrounding area, it will enter the sea from Ishigaki and Miyako islands, which are about 200 English miles away from Taiwan, then Japan’s sovereignty over the western end of the Southwest Islands will be violated.” According to Japan’s constitution, the Self-Defense Forces can legally mobilize a counterattack when national sovereignty is attacked.
According to Fumio Ota, the United States is the leader in securing the Taiwan Strait, and if the Chinese Communist Party invades Taiwan by force, it is bound to attack U.S. military bases near Taiwan as well. The problem is that there are only two U.S. military bases near Taiwan, namely Kadena and Putianma,” he said. China has a whopping 39 military bases near Taiwan. If China invades Taiwan by force, it is likely to attack the Kadena and Putianma bases in Okinawa Prefecture, which would constitute an encroachment on Japanese territory, and the Self-Defense Forces would be bound to move in.” Japan’s aggressive defense has clearly given Taiwan a shot in the arm.
The threat of a forceful attack on Taiwan loses its effectiveness
Regarding the Liaoning’s “exercise,” Chinese Navy spokesman Patrick Gao said on April 5, “The Chinese Navy will continue to organize similar exercises and training activities on a regular basis as planned in the future. Taiwan society, which has been intimidated by similar rhetoric for years, should be under pressure and fearful, but has not reacted too strongly at this time.
Song Wendi explained: “The main reason is the diminishing marginal benefit. Since 1996, before the first direct presidential election in Taiwan, whenever there is a presidential election or a major event, the Communist army has held large-scale military exercises in the strait, and since 2016, military aircraft have held ’round Taiwan cruise’ drills and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. For decades, Taiwan has been described as being on the verge of survival every year, with war about to break out at any moment, and the marginal effect has naturally diminished over time.”
Some analysts believe that China’s intimidation of “force against Taiwan” has been an old trick for decades, and the deterrent effect is much less than before.
U.S. Leads Alliance for Taiwan
Some scholars expect that China will not invade Taiwan in order to host the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022, and that Xi Jinping will face a major renewal of his term. Song Wendi argues that these are not sufficient explanations, though not without influence, because none of these reasons have prevented the advance of war-wolf diplomacy. In fact, the coldness of Taiwan society towards the military exercises is mainly attributed to the international support, led by the US and Japan, plus Australia, India, and the strengthening of European cohesion.
He stressed that the deterioration of U.S.-China relations has made Taiwan’s strategic position more important, and the credibility of U.S. security guarantees for Taiwan has increased. So when the Chinese Communist Party frequently disturbs Taiwan, the Taiwanese have more confidence in the strength of U.S. support for Taiwan instead.
The Quadripartite Security Dialogue (The Quad), which conceals anti-China intentions, is also gradually moving toward a ‘globalization’ process,” Song said. The Quad is gradually expanding on the basis of its four initiators. The UK has recently applied to join, Germany and Japan have signed an ‘intelligence cooperation agreement’, and France has just joined the five-nation joint naval exercise in the Gulf of Bangladesh, equivalent to ‘The Quad Plus One’ (The Quad Plus One). The French have just participated in a joint naval exercise between France, the United States, Australia, Japan and India in the Gulf of Bangladesh. With poor U.S.-China relations and cross-strait confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, the extended regional connectivity and cohesion of U.S.-led allies will be enhanced, and the more confidence Taiwan has in its own security.”
Acting U.S. Ambassador to Australia Michael Goldman made the U.S. support for Taiwan clear in a podcast at the Australian National University. When asked about the importance of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region and Australia’s role in the Indo-Pacific conflict, he emphasized that the U.S. will operate with allies (Australia, etc.) and engage in strategic planning in addition to military cooperation, of which Taiwan is clearly an important part.
In his April 14 video appearance at the Raisina Dialogue in India, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Philips Davidson reiterated U.S. policy toward Taiwan and emphasized that the United States would assist Taiwan in its self-defense and improve its military capabilities. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command is also committed to promoting joint interoperability, training, readiness and professional development with Taiwan’s military.
Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research Institute’s “Communist Party of China 2020 Annual Report” analyzes the results of the Communist Party’s 2020 military intimidation of Taiwan as having a positive effect on Taiwan’s long-term defense system, military procurement, and substantive alliances. The intimidation has prompted Taiwan to rethink the importance of national defense, review its service and defense system, and generate professional discussions and public support for the national army. The U.S. military sales of offensive weapons to Taiwan have become more natural, and the Indo-Pacific region, which is geopolitically closely linked to Taiwan in terms of air and sea defense, is led by the U.S.-Japanese alliance, combined with the European powers that have joined to form a large tandem of exercises. Taiwan, which has received substantial international support, is comfortable in the face of communist aggression, and Beijing’s initial intentions of military intimidation are feared to be counterproductive.
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