With the U.S. still reeling from the effects of the epidemic and having recently undergone a change of government, the Chinese Communist Party now sees a “window of opportunity” to accelerate its plans for territorial expansion in Asia, according to a former senior U.S. Navy intelligence official.
James Fanell served as director of intelligence for the U.S. Pacific Fleet. In an April 9 interview, he said, “This is a very dangerous time for the region as Beijing seeks to advance their strategy and timeline.”
In recent weeks, the Communist regime has amassed more than 240 militia vessels in the disputed Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea. The waters lie within the Philippines’ 200-mile (322-kilometer) exclusive economic zone. The Philippines has lodged a diplomatic protest with Beijing over the issue and has sent a naval task force to patrol the area. In the past week, the U.S. has massed its warships in the area, including an aircraft carrier strike group and an amphibious force. According to the Philippines, as of April 13, only a handful of Chinese vessels remained on Bull Yoke Reef.
Farnell is now a government fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy in Geneva. He said Beijing’s actions are a test for the Biden administration. If the regime does not see “strong resistance from the Biden administration,” he said, it could accelerate its plans for military action against Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
Beijing has stepped up its military aggression against Taiwan over the past year, sending military aircraft closer to the self-governing island almost daily. on April 12, the Communist regime sent a record 25 aircraft, including fighter jets and bombers that can carry nuclear warheads, into the island’s air defense identification zone.
Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), told the Senate in March that the Chinese Communist regime could invade Taiwan within the next six years, citing the regime’s military advances and the Communist Party’s region’s growing self-confidence.
At his confirmation hearing later that month, Adm. John Aquilino, nominated to replace Davidson as INDOPACOM commander, declined to set a timetable for when the Communist Party would attack, but said the threat of a Communist invasion “is much closer than most people think. “
When they say that,” Farnell said of the two admirals’ warnings, “it should really wake people up and get their attention.”
Although analysts predict that the Communist regime will not act until the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, Farnell’s attitude toward Beijing is “prevention is better than cure.
He said, “All indications are that they are very, very close to taking action against Taiwan.”
Farnell believes that Communist Party military officials and other hardliners within the Communist Party are “speaking out” that now is the best time to take control of Taiwan. If the Communist Party waits until after 2022, he said, they run the risk that Republicans will regain control of the House of Representatives and later the White House, leading the United States to take a “tougher line.
He said the Communist Party officials argue that “we can’t wait much longer because the United States is rearming itself and updating its equipment” to defeat the Communist strategy to invade Taiwan. “These arguments are going on (within the Chinese Communist Party).”
He added, “I’m very concerned that China (the CCP) may decide to act soon.”
To stop the CCP, Farnell argued, the U.S. needs to be more assertive diplomatically, pointing out the Chinese regime’s predatory behavior and stepping up efforts to counter its propaganda. On the military front, the U.S. should deploy forces in areas such as the South China Sea to “stop the CCP in its tracks.”
Our goal is to tell the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party that you can’t bully others just because you’re a big country,” he said. That’s not the way the world works, and we will not tolerate that.”
“The Chinese Communist government needs to understand that if they do try to do what they think they can do, then they will pay a high price for it.” Farnell said.
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