A new intelligence report on key trends and uncertainties in the future U.S. strategic environment warns that a range of “global challenges,” including technological disruption, financial crises and disease epidemics, will put pressure on society and deliver potentially catastrophic shocks.
The report, Global Trends 2040, from the U.S. National Intelligence Council, examines the forces and dynamics that are likely to affect the national security environment over the next 20 years and is published every four years. The report also describes five possible scenarios for the world in 2040, three of which are largely shaped by the U.S.-China rivalry and two of which are primarily influenced by a range of cross-cutting issues such as health and terrorist threats.
The structural forces that set the parameters for the assessment include broad categories of demographics and human development, environment, economy, and technology. These include climate change and environmental degradation, continued global migration pressures, financial crises and rising national debt levels, the rise of new infectious diseases and drug-resistant infections, and new technologies such as artificial intelligence and synthetic organisms that could be used in weapons, to name a few.
The report warns that all of these trends will lead to “widespread pressures on the state and society, as well as potentially catastrophic shocks.
According to the report, “These structural drivers could rebound in unpredictable ways, giving some countries the opportunity to address these challenges and even prosper, while others, burdened by a confluence of less favorable trends, would struggle.”
Complicating the structural factors are forces of imbalance, division and contention, which include issues such as larger divisions and conflicts at local, national and international scales, according to the report. Among these factors, the report says, are also growing pessimism and distrust of government, and social media-driven hyper-connectivity that could exacerbate divisions and exacerbate the leadership crisis.
Another important trend identified by the report is the decline of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. The report notes that “the wave of democratization that took hold around the world after the end of the Cold War has peaked, and in recent years the overall level of global democracy has begun to decline.”
The report says some countries are trying to fan the flames and fuel the trend.
The report states, “Externally, China (the Chinese Communist Party), Russia and other countries are undermining democracy and supporting authoritarian regimes in different ways. This support includes sharing the technology and related expertise of digital repression.”
Democracy and Dictatorship
Joe Biden has repeatedly noted that the world is at a critical crossroads between democracy and dictatorship. In a recent speech at the Munich Virtual Security Conference in February, he said, “We are between two inflection points. One side believes that given all the challenges we face – from the fourth industrial revolution to global epidemics – autocracy is the best way forward, and the other side believes that democracy is critical to meeting those challenges.”
Biden echoed this view in another speech on April 7, saying, “This generation, I think, will be characterized by a competition between democracies and autocracies, because the world is changing rapidly.”
“Dictators are betting that democracy will not produce the kind of unity needed to compete. We can’t prove them right. We must show the world – and more importantly, we must show ourselves – that democracy works.”
Possible scenarios
A scenario related to this theme in the intelligence report is called the “Renaissance of Democracies. It describes the world of 2040 as “a resurgence of open democracy under the leadership of the United States and its allies.” Increasing restrictions on personal freedom in China and Russia have prompted innovators and entrepreneurs to flee to Europe and the United States for refuge. In this context, public-private partnerships are flourishing in the United States and other free societies, and rapid advances in technology are transforming the global economy, raising the incomes and improving the quality of life of millions of people around the world.
Another scenario is called “A World Adrift”. China (the Chinese Communist Party) is increasingly belligerent and, while it cannot successfully challenge global leadership, it is expanding its military footprint in Asia, while developed countries are disadvantaged by political turmoil, sluggish economic growth and growing social polarization.
In this context, China (CCP) has increased its disregard for international rules and norms, further undermining international cooperation, while pulling failed states into its orbit with promises of market access and other benefits, leaving the international system “directionless, chaotic, and volatile.
A situation shaped by “cascading global challenges” rather than by U.S.-China competition is known as “Separate Silos,” in which globalization collapses, the world splits into smaller economic and security blocs, international trade is disrupted, and commodity supply chains are reoriented. international trade is disrupted and commodity supply chains are repositioned.
To maintain domestic stability in that world, the report says, “countries adopt a hybrid political model that combines democracy and authoritarianism, increased surveillance and potential repression.”
Another scenario, called “Tragedy and Mobilization. It argues that the world is “in the midst of a global catastrophe,” leading to a wave of upheaval that will spread across the globe, triggering revolutionary destruction and change.
The report does not specify which scenario they believe is most likely to occur.
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