Moderator: Hello, everyone, this is The View, I’m Qiwei Tang. Our guest on The View today is also Mr. Yu Maochun, a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy. Professor Yu is one of the key think tanks on China policy under former U.S. President Donald Trump. What is the ultimate goal of the United States in this round of U.S.-China strategic competition? What are his unique observations on China’s military strength and intelligence strategy, having taught at the U.S. Naval Academy for nearly three decades? “The Taiwan Strait issue is one of the most important issues in U.S.-China relations. How should the U.S. reassess its “policy toward Taiwan”? Let’s listen to Professor Yu Maochun’s views.
Reporter: You once went to China with the U.S. State Department and had contact with the Chinese military top brass. What is your assessment of the strength of the Chinese military?
Yu Maochun: China’s military is a party army, not only in the development of weapons, but also in the greatest effort (spent) on the loyalty of the Chinese military to the Communist Party, which has absolute guarantees. So it is not comparable to the United States in these armies. It spends a lot of time on political learning and loyalty assurance. So how much of an impact does this have on combat effectiveness? Of course it does. For example, many of the officers who are promoted are not necessarily based on their technical proficiency, but in many cases there are political factors. Another point is that the Chinese military has a lot of eagerness to get things done. They develop a lot of weapons, and then the development of weapons is actually very detached from modern warfare. The United States has participated in many military operations, so it has accumulated a lot of experience, and its weapons development, its long-term planning, is based on some very practical and very specific and effective approaches, and I think there is a big gap in this regard. Another point, considering the real strength aspect, then the real strength aspect, the U.S. military and the Chinese PLA also have a lot of different places. China is developing its nuclear strike force and long-range strike force, its space weapons, its electronic weapons, all of these things they have made great progress, but I think it is still a long way behind the United States, especially in some of the more traditional weapons systems. For example, strategic force projection, it’s not even close to the United States. The United States also has many other factors that China cannot match. For example, the United States has a very strong military alliance system, and China basically has no military alliances. The United States has many allies around the world, and certainly more in Asia. Another thing is that the United States is very cautious about war, especially this interaction with the democratic process for decades, and it does not say war easily. Unlike China, when China talks about war one, it’s easy and it’s trumpeting it with great pomp and circumstance. Also China is a special country, it has 14 land border countries, its relationship with its neighbors is very bad. I’m a student of history, and I’ve never seen a country that has such bad relations with its neighbors. So China now has a big problem in its military strategy, it only needs to launch a little military action against any country, it will create a kind of consortium, everyone surrounds this country together to fight (China).
Reporter: In terms of military strategy, in your opinion, what kind of attempts and ambitions does China have in Asia, and what kind of impact will it have on the core interests of the United States in Asia?
Yu Maochun: I think China’s policy toward Asia, it is most afraid of what I just mentioned, all the countries that are dissatisfied with China, many of these countries will join together to deal with China. So one of China’s most fundamental strategies is to prevent such a thing from happening. So you see its attitude towards ASEAN, it is this way to Japan and South Korea to engage in the diversionary scheme, very opposed, firmly opposed to military alliances, especially to the United States, Japan and South Korea so a tripartite military alliance. The main attempt is that it feels that the United States poses a threat to it, to squeeze out the power of the United States. It is difficult for society to imagine how a country can claim the South China Sea, the largest internal sea in the world, as its own. These are all very unimaginable things. The Chinese government’s policy makers don’t know how damaging it would be to China’s international image to say that. So say a pair of him bounces back, he says this is disrespectful to China, you’re hurting the feelings of the Chinese people. These are very old-fashioned statements.
Reporter: I saw a U.S. think tank report that China’s interests are only in Asia and that it has no ambition to dominate the world. Your observation?
Yu Maochun: Hitler never said he wanted to dominate the world. Even at the time of Stalin, he felt that his strategy towards the Eastern European countries, he was self-defensive, he was preventing another German-style invasion. Almost all aggressive countries, it is always expansion in the name of self-defense. There are two issues involved. The first I think is that the Chinese strategy feels that there is an international anti-China force, led by the United States, that wants to contain China, in Chinese political terms called you die and I live. It feels that the containment of China is global, so that China’s counterattack should also be global, so it is going to compete with the U.S. globally for hegemony, that is the first point. The second point is its ability, China is now its science and technology and communications technology capabilities are very strong, so it can use a relatively easy way in the world, the world’s strategic communications systems it can monopolize up. So it’s called 5G and Huawei, and it’s all here to enforce this national policy. So I think it’s a real threat to the world, especially in terms of some other political ideas, ways of ruling. You have political education, for example, and a united front. These are things that have been practiced domestically for decades and now have created a very real threat of this kind to the international community.
Reporter: We’ve seen a surge of anti-American sentiment within China in recent times. For some Chinese people, the meaning of American supremacy is the consolidation of American hegemony. How would you respond to their feeling that the U.S. cannot tolerate challenges from other countries, especially a non-democratic country like China that has grown strong with the help of the U.S.?
Yu Maochun: That is a very unrealistic statement. In fact the Chinese government is wrong to put all kinds of problems on the conflict between China and the United States. China’s challenge is actually a challenge not only to the United States, but to the whole world. Many Asian countries in Europe are now aware of this. America First actually emphasizes to a large extent that the United States, you see President Trump’s strategic vision, he is taking back some of the military actions that the United States has over-extended before, and he is actually more conservative. Not only the United States to say the United States first, China has been saying China first, Japan said Japan first. Political leaders of various countries, which is perfectly logical, say that their countries are to be prioritized.
Reporter: I know you have visited Taiwan several times during your tenure at the U.S. State Department. You said that “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong has completely failed, and the U.S. should of course re-evaluate its policy towards Taiwan. Does this involve the “one-China policy”?
Yu Maochun: China has always said that Taiwan is very important, and we also think that Taiwan is very important. And in 1979, when China and the United States established diplomatic relations, then Taiwan was no longer there. But we all had conditions. Then China agreed to those things. Then agreed to two things, that is, a solution to the Taiwan issue, which the United States has always demanded, and China has agreed, to resolve in a peaceful way. The second point is that any solution must be agreed to by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, which is very important and cannot be imposed by one side on the other. Therefore, the “one-China policy” on Taiwan is based on such a condition. So is it necessary to adjust this policy? I think it is necessary, and why? The reason is that China’s promises have not been fulfilled. For example, the issue of force, a peaceful solution, and another issue of unification of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, it does not recognize. So it is necessary to have a more realistic view of the one-China policy. But we have always been committed to the “one-China policy”, we have not changed. But in addition, the conditions behind the “one-China policy”, we are also unchanged, but also very determined to implement, that is, must be a peaceful solution, must have the consent of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to do. The Chinese Communist Party has always said that force is necessary because Taiwan has Taiwan independence. The current president, the current vice president, they have said: there is no need for Taiwan to declare independence, it is already an independent political entity, its name is the Republic of China. Meaning that Taiwan is a status quo, the vast majority of the people of Taiwan he is maintaining the status quo, maintaining the status quo is Taiwan independence? Of course not.
Reporter: Not long ago, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense (Robert Gates) said that the U.S. should abandon its strategic ambiguity on cross-strait issues, do you agree with him?
Yu Maochun: I basically agree, because strategic ambiguity is a very important shortcut to armed conflict. Let me give you two examples. When the Korean War broke out in 1950, it was because the U.S. had strategic ambiguity. It felt that there were still nationalist sentiments in North Korea and China, and it would resist the Soviet Union, so the U.S. Secretary of State said that if there was a war in North Korea, it was not within the scope of U.S. defense protection, and then that gave the illusion to the communist aggression that the U.S. would not intervene, and that was one. Another was in the early 1990s when the Iraq War, the U.S. intelligence agencies and U.S. diplomats had long received an offer from Saddam Hussein saying I want to attack Kuwait, how do you respond? The U.S. gave him a very vague statement, which fueled his aggressive ambitions. So that’s why I think the strategic ambiguity is quite unnecessary, we should have strategic clarity, and that’s the right thing to do.
Reporter: We’ve seen some American scholars say that the Chinese military has revealed that the PLA believes Xi Jinping will have the ability to take Taiwan within one to two years. What about your observations?
Yu Maochun: I think these observations are very speculative, because the Chinese Communist Party has been talking about liberating Taiwan for decades, since 1949, and it has not been done yet. Capability or not this is one thing, the consequences, this is what is going on, they are also very considerate. So it has an element of strategic deterrence and intimidation in it. The issue of Taiwan should be resolved peacefully, cross-strait interaction, not to bullying attitude to force more than 20 million people in Taiwan to obey, both sides must have this kind of consensus is good. You get China right, you are democratic and free, and Taiwan’s system is basically similar, which is not very natural.
Reporter: Do you personally feel that Xi Jinping still does not dare to act rashly?
Yu Maochun: He dares not is one thing, but I tell you that the consequences are very serious, the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will bring great disaster.
Reporter: In your opinion, what is the ultimate goal of the U.S.-China confrontation with the United States? Is it the hope that China will become a democratic country?
Yu Maochun: I think there are two main aspects. The first aspect is that the ultimate goal is that the world will not become a Communist-style authoritarian state. This prospect is becoming more and more likely, so the U.S. and other allies will try to prevent such a thing from happening in this regard. Another point I think is that China is a big country and China will play a lot of good roles in the international community in many ways, and this potential good energy has not been unleashed. The Chinese people should also enjoy the same rights as other people, democracy, freedom and justice. Although Chinese society has made great economic progress, it is not denyable, but Chinese society is also a country with extreme unfairness and little justice. I think the Chinese national anthem is very majestic and the first line is very important: “Rise up people who do not want to be slaves”.
Reporter: So you would like to see constitutional democracy and regime change in China? If so, do you need an outside force to intervene in Chinese politics? How can you intervene?
Yu Maochun: It’s not that the United States or any other country wants China to achieve anything. The Chinese people have been trying to establish constitutional government since the May Fourth Movement, since the end of the Qing Dynasty, because they and many other countries at that time, like Japan, realized that in order to get rid of the disease of feudal society and become strong, it’s not about using foreign guns and foreign cannons, but about the power of your government. It is the establishment of your political system, the correct relationship between your government and the state, which is constitutionalism. The Chinese Communist Party is most afraid of this, for example, Liu Xiaobo and his group started the Charter 08, the Chinese Communist Party is like a big enemy. Anyone who says the constitution is above the party now, then you go to jail, like Xu Zhangrun, some people like that, so it is very afraid of this. But the more afraid it is, the more it proves that the truth is not on their side.
Reporter: You just said that there is no denying that China’s economy has grown over the years. How would you convince these Chinese people that overthrowing the Chinese Communist regime would give them a better life? Because there is an old Chinese saying that “when you are poor, you want to change”.
Yu Maochun: Yes, you made a good point. This does not necessarily mean that we have to overthrow any party or regime. It is a very good thing that a person is rich. After living a rich life, his demand for personal dignity also increased. Being rich means that many people have property, and with property you must ensure the right to own it. China is a country where there is no absolute guarantee of private property rights, and the state can do whatever it wants. And after he became rich, he has a deeper personal feeling about the gap between the rich and the poor and the uneven distribution of social resources. Therefore, I think that as Chinese society continues to develop economically, its social contradictions are deepening, and people’s demands for personal dignity, protection of private property, and social justice are rising even higher. So I don’t think it’s necessarily that the people have no more goals to pursue for their own rights because of the economic development of the society. Economic development is not necessarily related to the stability of the regime. There are many examples of this in Chinese history. The first challenge to the prosperous period of the Qing dynasty was the so-called “White Lotus Sect”, which happened during the heyday of the Qianlong reign, when the economy was very good, the world’s first.
Reporter: Some scholars describe China under the centralization of science and technology as a huge pressure cooker, which seems to be stable but in fact is ready to explode. You also mentioned that China has many problems. In your opinion, if the pressure cooker bursts, in which areas will the danger spread?
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