Xi Jinping’s condolences to Taiwan the day after the major Taiwan train derailment did not change the required action of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone. It is believed that the Taiwanese side, which will not fail to see the contrast between the two, is not less worried about China’s forceful invasion of Taiwan even as the biggest casualty accident in decades occurs.
The U.S. State Department spokesman said a few days ago that the U.S. side will consider promoting bilateral relations between Taiwan and the U.S. in the future by exchanging visits of high-level officials. On this issue, Taiwan’s international relations scholars held an analysis and discussion on April 3 that the focus of future high-level interaction between Taiwan and the U.S. lies in how wide the U.S. will relax the restrictions on past interactions and whether bilateral meetings will touch on important issues.
Taiwan experts should have noticed that the recent statement by U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price was predicated on certain conditions. She said, “The U.S. side will, as in the past, consider opportunities for senior officials to visit Washington and Taipei under circumstances that advance the unofficial U.S.-Taiwan relationship and allow for a substantive exchange of views on issues of mutual concern.” Such words are probably meant for both sides of the strait as well.
It is well known that over the past decades, the U.S. State Department has developed responsible internal restrictions governing U.S. diplomatic, military and other official interactions with Taiwan officials. Only a few days before former President Trump left office, the Pompeo-led State Department announced the removal of restrictions on U.S.-Taiwan interactions. Now Taiwan is more concerned about whether new President Joe Biden will continue Trump’s policies.
The Central News Agency (CNA) reported that Taiwan’s Time Force held a seminar on “Indo-Pacific Strategic Relations in the Post-Epidemic Era” on the afternoon of March 3, and whether the U.S. will adjust its policy toward Taiwan after President Biden’s inauguration has sparked much discussion.
Taipei Medical University professor and strategy scholar Zhang Guocheng believes: from Trump to Biden, the U.S. still adopts a strategic ambiguous line towards China and Taiwan; if a forceful conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, whether the U.S. military will intervene needs more detailed discussion. He pointed out that Taiwan’s internal military preparations for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait are not yet sufficient, including relevant ports, logistical resources or how to cooperate with allied forces in military deployments, and related discussions are not yet complete. Zhang also pointed out that Taiwan’s internal defeatist and surrenderist voices are worrying; from the Myanmar and Xinjiang cotton incidents, China is conducting stress tests in response to international sanctions, and Taiwan must respond carefully.
Zhang Guocheng hopes that: in the future, when Taiwan and the United States high-level officials visit each other, in addition to the form of mutual visits, more attention should be paid to the bilateral negotiations on issues, and whether the bilateral consensus on important issues; if Taiwan and the United States on important issues, and there is no preparation for cooperation or disagreement, the effect of high-level visits will be limited. Zhang Guocheng also pointed out that if Taiwan’s controversial issue, pork containing ractopamine, for example, is passed, the impression given to the outside world will be: “The U.S. cannot even convince Taiwan’s government that it needs the U.S., so how can it convince other countries? Such a perception would be a major influence on the United States.
Dr. Wang Hao, a doctor of international relations at Oxford University in the United Kingdom, cut from the issue of China’s continuous poaching of Taiwan’s high-tech talent, stressing that Taiwan society must face up to the national security crisis related to the outflow of technology, and from past events, including pineapples and lice, we can see that China’s “raising set of kill” mode continues to advance step by step.
Wang Hao pointed out that for the Chinese pressure, Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan should also have a way to respond, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army missiles using Taiwan chips, Taiwan’s national security units should think about ways to respond. Taiwan should also pass a Taiwanese version of the Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act to sanction Chinese officials who violate human rights, which will have political symbolic significance.
The Taipei branch director of the Japanese news agency Sankei Shimbun, Akio Yabata, observed that the Biden administration believes it is necessary to give China a clear message in order to avoid a strategic miscalculation by China; as for the so-called Chinese Communist Party’s possible attack on Taiwan within six years, he personally judged that the possibility is not high.
Huang Jiezheng, an associate professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, pointed out in an interview with the Central News Agency that the focus of future observation will be on how loose the U.S. side will make the relevant rules; he judged that the Biden administration may restore some restrictions on U.S.-Taiwan relations, such as not displaying the symbols of the sovereignty of the Republic of China in U.S. government agencies.
Brent Christensen, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), is approaching the end of his three-year term, and his successor is rumored to be Sandra Oudkirk, deputy assistant secretary for Asia-Pacific at the State Department. Experts believe that this expected change in U.S. personnel also remains to be seen.
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