China’s top leader Xi Jinping and Communist Party Premier Li Keqiang attend a conference to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement on April 30, 2019
Taipei – During the recently concluded two sessions of the National People’s Congress, Li Keqiang’s remarks in his “government work report” about “ensuring no large-scale poverty eradication” were suspected to have stepped on Xi Jinping’s sore point of “campaign-style poverty eradication. The official media changed the phrase to “ensure no return to poverty on a large scale” during the government’s work report, which led to renewed speculation that Xi and Li were at odds. However, analysts familiar with China’s problems point out that Li Keqiang is a “hollowed-out” economic premier with little power, and it would be an overestimation of Li’s strength to elevate the economic bureaucrat’s statement to a “disagreement” with Communist Party President Xi Jinping’s line. Analysts say the two men are not different in essence, but both aim to “extend the Life” of the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi and Li’s different tune is not an empty cave
In fact, before the two sessions, many media started to predict whether Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang would “disagree”. These speculations and observations are not empty caves, as Chinese Communist Party President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have repeatedly shown “different tones” in public, and many media have used the words “differences” and “struggles” to describe their relationship. “For example, between May 2015 and May 2016, Chinese official media published three front-page articles in which authoritative figures were asked to comment on Li Keqiang’s economic policies, and the results were more “negative than positive”, thus bringing the conflict between Xi and Li to the forefront.
Analysts further pointed out that Xi and Li also hold different views on many economic issues, for example, Xi Jinping advocates “the country advancing and the people retreating”, while Li Keqiang emphasizes “the country retreating and the people advancing”; Xi Jinping says he has achieved “poverty elimination While Xi Jinping said he had achieved “poverty elimination”, Li Keqiang pointed out that 600 million people still earn less than 1,000 yuan per month; Xi Jinping focused on the “double cycle” with domestic demand as the main focus and external support, while Li Keqiang emphasized external exchanges and reform and opening up; Li Keqiang encouraged the floor stall economy, while Xi Jinping considered it detrimental to the city’s image and drove it away. In particular, during the two sessions in 2016, when Li Keqiang delivered his government work report, Xi Jinping made his first “three no’s”: no applause, no exchange, and no handshake with Li after he read out the government work report, which also led to suspicions that the two had differences.
Independent commentator Tang Jingyuan (provided by Tang Jingyuan)
The independent commentator Tang Jingyuan told Voice of America, “I also observed that one of the most prominent and arguably the highest peak of the disagreement was when the trade war broke out between the United States and China, and it is said that for such a major economic event and economic decision, Li Keqiang, as the economic premier, should be the first responsible person in this regard. It was Liu He, a vice premier, who acted as Xi Jinping’s special envoy. Because we all know that Liu He he is actually Xi Jinping’s beloved, counted as Xi Jinping’s cronies, in essence, this stage reflects the major decisions, economic decisions, can already be said to be made by Xi Jinping.”
Just why would Xi and Li disagree? These differences in views can represent Xi-Li line differences or struggles?
“Xi will do whatever power he gives him.”
In an interview with the Voice of America, Cai Wenxuan, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at the Academia Sinica in Taiwan, said that Li Keqiang is an economist, but Xi Jinping is a “second generation Red”, one with an economic focus and one with a political focus, so naturally there will be different perceptions on economic issues. For example, in the case of poverty eradication, Li Keqiang only said what a State Council premier should say, using data to remind what needs attention, but this is neither a political struggle, nor a disagreement; while Xi Jinping is taking poverty eradication as a comprehensive political task, so there will be political statements and arguments. According to Cai Wenxuan, “they are just speaking different words in different positions.”
Cai Wenxuan, a researcher at the Institute of Politics, Academia Sinica (Photo by Chen Yun, Voice of America)
Cai Wenxuan said, “But this difference will not cause a conflict between Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping, because Li Keqiang has much less power than Xi Jinping. After Xi Jinping shouts to stop, he (Li Keqiang) can only touch his nose and walk away.”
Cai Wenxuan said that after Xi Jinping himself became the head of the central deep reform group and the head of the economic leading group, Li Keqiang’s power in the State Council and the power of the Politburo Standing Committee has been partially hollowed out, which is basically “whatever power Xi Jinping gives him, he will do. Li Keqiang’s power in the economic field is less than that of his predecessors, so he is a Premier with little economic power and no ability to talk to Xi Jinping about “differences.
He is not as powerful as Zhu Rongji or Li Peng, or even Wen Jiabao, so what power does he have to disagree with others? Xi Jinping today after he established the Leading Group for Deepening Reform, he has intervened in the economic field, the economic field was previously the responsibility of the Premier of the State Council, and now it has become the economic field, Xi Jinping wants to take all he took away, the rest of the economic field and then to Li Keqiang, so Li Keqiang does not even have complete economic decision-making power, he and others can have any differences.”
Analysis: Xi and Li to extend the life of the Chinese Communist Party system is not the same
The two men have a different tone, but the difference is only at the technical economic level, and the general political approach is not different.
Taiwan think tank consultant Lai Yi-chung also told Voice of America: “Xi Jinping wants to go back to the Mao era, the War Wolf diplomacy, the Red Guard era, etc. Many people will be very unimpressed, but no one dares to sing against him publicly on these things. This expectation of how far the Communist Party will essentially split is a bit difficult for me to say at this point.”
Independent commentator Tang Jingyuan also said, Xi and Li are essentially the same, the goal is to keep the Communist Party from falling, to “extend the life” of the Communist regime, even the essence of the economic line is similar, both called state capitalism. The difference lies in the fact that Li Keqiang basically continues the economic policy of Deng Xiaoping’s era, and prefers to keep his light under wraps, hoping to use the nutrients of Westernism to strengthen the muscles of socialism; while Xi Jinping is a man of ideas, he wants to be a central saint, and if he continues to keep his light under wraps, he is afraid that it will not be conducive to his opening up the territory.
Tang Jingyuan further analyzed that the most fundamental reason why the “first hand” and “second hand” of the Communist Party of China have different tones comes from the fact that Xi and Li inherited the difference between Mao Zedong’s planned economy and Deng Xiaoping’s market economy line, while Xi Jinping saw the difference between Deng Xiaoping’s line The consequences of the “separation of powers” amounted to a weakening of the Party leadership and the formation of a situation of vassalism, which led to the hollowing out of Hu Jintao during the Hu-Wen era, and even when Xi Jinping himself was about to ascend the throne, there was a situation in which Zhou Yongkang intended to plot a rebellion, which made Xi wary and afraid of jeopardizing the legitimacy of his rule.
The difference between Xi and Li’s early and later different tones
The reason for Li Keqiang’s courage to disagree with Xi Jinping is two factors, one is seniority and the other is background, according to Tang Jingyuan. The first is that Li Keqiang himself, in terms of seniority, and Xi Jinping can be said to be the same generation. We all know that Li Keqiang was actually the successor candidate of Hu Jintao’s faction, while Xi Jinping was the candidate of Jiang Zemin’s faction, so basically they can be said to be equal in political status, but later Xi Jinping won, and Li Keqiang became the second in command of the premier. Another reason is that Li Keqiang actually took office in the early days of Xi Jinping, he (Xi Jinping) was still in the stage of anti-corruption and centralization of power, Xi Jinping was not yet able to achieve such a great power and party dictatorship as now, he actually needed the support of Li Keqiang at that Time. At that time including Li Keqiang’s background, he was a member of Hu Jintao’s group, and did take a kind of support in Xi Jinping’s early anti-corruption efforts, so Xi Jinping was still tolerant of him at that time.”
However, at a later stage, the situation has changed. According to Tang Jingyuan’s analysis, the economic downturn, which the CCP has always seen as an indicator of the legitimacy of its rule, coupled with the stock market crash in 2015, also known as the “financial coup” and suspected to have been “staged” by human factors, all had a negative impact on Xi Jinping’s desire to become The pressure on Xi Jinping to become the “core of Xi” is immense. Therefore, at this time Xi Jinping must take strong measures to weaken the power of these vassals, including of course Li Keqiang’s power in the economic field.
So why, under the leadership of the “Xi core”, did Li Keqiang say something different from Xi Jinping? According to Tang, Li’s term expires at the first session of the 14th National People’s Congress in 2023, and for an official who is about to “get off the train”, it doesn’t matter whether he is in tune with Xi Jinping or has already offended him, instead he dares to speak the truth; after all, they had to work together for many years before, so they had some scruples. But now it’s different. Therefore, there is a difference in the tone of Xi and Li in the early and late stages.
Tang Jingyuan said: “Li Keqiang because he is after all the economic premier, if the economy really messed up in the end, the responsibility always has to be carried by him. So Li Keqiang in the late, he some times still occasionally issued a different tone, he is more in self-preservation, he is more by this way to clarify my opinion and you are not the same, if you have to do so, if screwed up, the problem, then the responsibility is not on my body, he is more for this reason.”
Li Keqiang has not crossed the political minefield by half a step
Taiwan think tank consultant Lai Yi-chung also said, “In the past, because everyone (Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang) go up together, do not know what Xi Jinping will do, so they are a little afraid, but now Li Keqiang is no longer likely to continue to be re-elected after 2022, so they will not have any scruples, I think this is the mentality of Li Keqiang now. There are many things that if you do not take this opportunity to say, then the future simply do not even have the opportunity to say. And speaking of economic differences, for China relatively speaking, and not criticizing Xi himself or universal values, speaking of economic differences, basically people can still be tolerated.”
Taiwan think tank advisory board member Lai Yi-chung (Photo by Chen Yun, Voice of America)
Tang Jingyuan stressed that although it is an objective fact that Xi and Li disagree, no matter how they disagree, it is limited to the economic field, especially the technical aspects, but as long as it is Xi Jinping’s version of political decisions, Li Keqiang has never publicly shown his disagreement. The two of them have been in the same situation for a long time.
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