Yi Fuxian, a Chinese demographer currently doing research in the United States, recently published a paper arguing that China’s total fertility rate has been below replacement level since 1991, but that China’s population data have been wrong for years and have led to many bad decisions.
For many years, Yi has been a prominent critic of China’s demographic research for his 2007 book, The Great Empty Nest: China’s Family Planning Goes Astray.
However, Yi did not study population theory himself; he is currently doing medical research in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin. However, he has always stressed that population research should not be limited to population theory or sociology, but should be based on a multidisciplinary knowledge of physiology, pathology, and even psychoanalysis related to childbirth.
In an interview with our reporter, Yi Fuxian joked that he was not doing his job properly. However, when he published The Great Empty Nest, he was supported and recommended by many scientists, including economists, sociologists, and lawyers. Yifuxian’s ideas have long been ignored by the Chinese authorities. Earlier this year, the People’s Daily, an official media outlet, published an article counting the top ten rumors of 2019, the third of which was Yi’s claim of negative population growth in China.
However, Yi Fu Xian is still allowed to publish his demographic research in China. In his “Simulation Analysis of the 2020 Census” published last week in Social Science Forum 2020 No. 6, he estimated that China’s total population in 2020 should be 1.26 billion, instead of the official 1.4 billion. However, Yi is more concerned about the fact that China’s fertility rate has been below the natural replacement level since 1991 and that the total population is declining.
Reporter: You emphasize that China’s fertility rate began to fall below replacement level in 1991. What are the official figures released by China, and what is the basis of your judgment?
Yi Fuxian: I am also based on official surveys and censuses. The official fertility rate in China was 2.25 in 1990, but in the 1991 sample survey it was only 1.8. Then in the 1995 mini-census, the fertility rate was only 1.43, and in the 2000 census, it was only 1.22. These objective data are consistent with my judgment based on medical and sociological disciplines.
These objective data are consistent with my judgment based on medical, sociological, and other disciplines. However, the Chinese authorities do not recognize these objective fertility data from surveys. It says that all developed countries have a fertility rate of 1.6, but how can we only have a fertility rate of 1.2?
Reporter: Is that the data manipulation you mentioned in the article you just published?
Yi Fu Xian: This can be explained a bit more. For example, if the fertility rate in 2000 was 1.2, then only 13 million people would be born, but the National Bureau of Statistics announced 17.71 million.
The 2010 census showed that only 14 million people were 10 years old. Actually, there’s still water in that number, but even if there was water, it’s only 14 million, not 17 million.
Then in 2015, these children graduated from junior high school, and there were only 13 million people who graduated from junior high school that year; the small census in 2015 showed that there were only 13 million people aged 15, which means that the birth rate of 13 million, which was influenced by the 2000 census, was accurate, and the 17.71 million published by the National Bureau of Statistics was wrong.
There are many other years of data that have similar problems. That is to say, it takes many years for the data revised by the NBS to slowly reflect through other data that the data they revised that year is wrong.
Reporter: As an official statistical agency, why would they make falsifications that don’t fit the actual survey results?
Yi Fuxian: In 2007, Yu Xuejun, Director of the Department of Regulations of the National Family Planning Commission, had an interview on the Chinese government website, and what he said represents the mindset of Chinese officials and mainstream demographers. He said that if it was only 1.2, there would be no need for family planning. He also said that precisely because our current figure is 1.7, 1.8, if it rebounded, the population would increase indefinitely.
That is to say, if it is 1.2, then family planning should be stopped, the whole family planning system should be withdrawn, and then a lot of people would be out of work. For the demographic community, this means that a lifetime of research has been based on the wrong data. If the demographic data becomes the real data, then their lifetime of research is wrong and worthless. They get a series of positions, honors, benefits, etc. by publishing papers that are based on falsified data. Therefore, the demographic community does not believe in real data either.
Reporter: For many years you have been calling for the abolition of the family planning policy, and recently you tweeted that many of China’s policies are based on faulty demographic data. Can you explain your point of view?
Yi Fuxian: Because population data is the basis for economic, social, education, defense, and foreign policy, if the population data is wrong, then all other policies are wrong as well.
For example, the Chinese government has been very generous in its Belt and Road policy, as well as in its international aid and foreign investment. But if China has real demographic data and its economy is not growing as fast as it should, then the Belt and Road should not implement so many preferential policies and be more cautious about foreign investment, because China itself is facing a crisis.
In 2014, I published an article in the State Council’s China Development Monitor, pointing out that local governments will face a lot of debt crises from a demographic point of view. At that time, the local debt crisis was not very serious, but now the local government debt crisis is very serious.
Also, according to real population data, China’s real estate is in crisis. China has built so many houses, but no one lives in them, so they won’t sell. Once the real estate shrinks, it will cause a big bubble crisis, which will be a big blow to the Chinese economy and the global economy.
Reporter: You just mentioned that the authenticity of China’s population data and population policy will affect China’s foreign affairs and national defense. What is your specific view?
Yi Fuxian: Chinese scholars have misled the international community by judging, based on erroneous demographic data, that China’s economy will soon overtake that of the United States, that it will be two or three times the size of the United States. For example, Bai Bangrui, a former advisor to the U.S. White House, also said that China’s economy will be two or three times that of the U.S., which created anxiety in the U.S. and led to the U.S.-China confrontation strategy. These are all misguided misjudgments that have worsened U.S.-China relations, and there could have been a lot of good cooperation between China and the United States.
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