On Friday, economists at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said that China is unlikely to catch up with the United States, and that the United States will remain richer than China in the next 50 years or even longer.
Taiwan‘s “Free Finance” reported on March 26 that Simon Baptist, the global chief economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit, pointed out in an interview with CNBC that “GDP per capita is our measure of wealth, and I think it is unlikely that China will catch up with the United States, at least not in the next 50 years. “
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that China’s GDP per capita is projected to be $10,582.10 in 2020, far short of the U.S.’s $63,051.40.
And demographer Dr. Fu-Hsien Yi, a senior scientist and demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, argued in a March 5 interview with the Voice of America that China’s economy will never surpass that of the United States.
The Voice of America reported that Dr. Yi’s judgment that “China’s economy will never surpass that of the United States” stems from a basic fact, namely, that the mainstay of society and the economy is the population, and that only with the population can there be a series of economic activities such as production, consumption and innovation.
According to F.H. Yee, China’s rise was based on its population. 79 years after the reform and opening up, the median age of the population in 80 years was only 22 years old, compared to 30 years old in the United States, and the Chinese economy could have achieved great success if it had just followed the law a little bit, which was also true. However, China’s labor force started to decline around 2014 and the median age has surpassed the US by 2018 and is now 42 years old compared to 38 years old in the US. If China stabilizes its fertility rate of 1.2 (an average of 1.2 children per woman of childbearing age over her lifetime), by 2035 the median age in China will be 49 compared to 42 in the U.S. In 2050 China will be 56+ compared to 44 in the U.S. The age structure of the population shows who actually dominates the sustainability of each of the U.S. and China.
Yi believes that in roughly 2030-35, China will be inferior to the U.S. in all aspects of demographic data, meaning that economic growth will begin to fall below the U.S. around 2035.
Yi said he said in the 2000s that 2012 would be an inflection point for China’s population and also for the economy, meaning that economic growth would begin to slow. Although no one believed it at the Time, by 2012, China’s economy started to fall back from 9.6 percent in 2011 and slid all the way to 6.1 percent in 2019.
Yi Fuxian said that China’s fertility rate was already lower than the U.S. in 1991 and lower than Japan, Germany, Greece, Portugal and Italy in 2000, and China’s aging problem will be more serious than these countries in the future. Therefore, it is impossible for the GDP per capita to reach 50% of that of the United States.
Yi Fuxian judged that aging is a gray rhino for China, while the new crown Epidemic is a black swan for the US, which will pass away in one year. The gray rhinoceros is long and impossible to escape. Now that the U.S. has suffered a black swan, many pro-China factions are crying out for the superiority of the Chinese system, but it is really just China gaining a temporary sprint advantage. The aging population, declining consumption, declining economy, declining innovation, declining workforce and declining manufacturing are the general direction for China.
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