Government debt is the most important factor driving China’s economic development. What will happen to China’s national and local debt issuance in 2020, and what will happen in 2021? Chinese big data expert Barbarian Warrior recently wrote an article to analyze and summarize this.
Employment is hard! Experts call it a “political show” as the Chinese Communist Party makes a move to solve the employment problem of 9 million graduates.
Trump administration’s White House staffer says Biden‘s absence has plunged the U.S. into a national security crisis. The Biden Administration fired five employees with a history of marijuana, but let Vice President He Jinli live.
The U.S. and India have joined forces to take on the Chinese Communist Party! Seeking to weaponize trade, the Chinese Communist Party turns to authoritarian regimes to gain stability in the supply chain.
Dumbfounded! Need to borrow $20 trillion for China’s economy to continue to run steadily?
China’s independent big data expert, Barbarian Warrior, analyzes that in 2020, China’s full-caliber fiscal revenue of $27.64 trillion is essentially flat compared to $27.49 trillion in 2019, with a slight increase of 0.5%. The growth on the expenditure side is more, 36.36 trillion, compared with 33.02 trillion in 2019, an increase of 10.1%. the total fiscal deficit of China reaches 8.72 trillion in 2020, compared with 5.53 trillion in 2019, an increase of 57.7%. In terms of the gap between revenues and expenditures, it reaches an all-Time high of 31.6%.
Table 1: Evolution of fiscal revenue and expenditure data
First of all, it should be emphasized that the data in the article are obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Finance and the official website of the People’s Bank of China.
The issuance of national and local bonds in 2020 reached astronomical figures: 7.02 trillion dollars of national bonds were issued, an increase of 75.0%; 6.44 trillion dollars of local bonds were issued, an increase of 47.7%.
Table 2: Evolution of national debt data in the last 10 years
The borrowing and repayment rate of China’s national debt fell to a trough of 36.1% in 2015, and has increased year by year since then, rising to 77.2% in 2019, which means that out of the 4.01 trillion national debt issued that year, 3.10 trillion was taken to repay the old debt, and only 912.1 billion new national debt balance was added that year. More than three-quarters of the new debt was taken to pay off the old debt.
In 2020, the Communist Party relied on government credit expansion and fiscal borrowing for investment, and had to continue expansion even though it had reached its credit limit. Without expansion, the people have no Food to eat, enterprises have no work to open, the production of steel and cement do not know who to sell, all point to the government to renovate the road teeth, the municipal network have to smash and repave more than eight times, that is, the new era of “food for work”.
The barbarian warriors conservatively predict how the increase in national debt must be maintained at a scale of more than 4 trillion, for national-level investment in major projects; borrowing and repaying the old amount will certainly exceed 3 trillion. Conservative prediction, or based on the 7 trillion national debt in 2020 to calculate.
Table 3: Local debt data
The issuance of local bonds in China before 2016 was extremely chaotic, with $6.06 trillion of local government bonds issued in that year (of which $4.89 trillion were replacement bonds, i.e., borrowing new to repay old), with a typical maturity of 5-7 years. This means that starting in 2021, it will actually enter a period of concentrated debt repayment of 4.89 trillion bonds, and more replacement bonds will have to be issued in order to repay the old with the new.
In addition to the 5 trillion borrowing to pay off the old amount, how also have to borrow at least 3 trillion of new money for investment in infrastructure, so the amount of local debt issued in 2021 at least 8 trillion. If the local government dares to borrow less money, a bunch of enterprises on the spot will dare to die to you see.
As for the part of urban investment bonds, the common years of 3-5 years, shorter maturity, so also more dependent on borrowing new to repay the old. 2017-2019 urban investment bonds borrowing new to repay the old rate are floating between 60-70%. 2020 urban investment bonds issued 4.38 trillion, an increase of 35.4% compared to 2019.
According to statistics, the size of China’s urban investment bonds maturing in 2021 is about 3.1 trillion, all of which have to be pointed to the borrowing new for old model to be able to afford; plus the 2 trillion that urban investment enterprises have to borrow new anyway to maintain the investment capacity of local governments, together local governments have to borrow 5 trillion in the urban investment bond sector in 2021.
The barbarian warrior stressed that local governments must borrow 8 trillion + 5 trillion = 13 trillion in 2021. Plus there is another 7 trillion expected to be issued on the treasury side. Combined, the state and local governments, in 2021, must borrow 20 trillion dollars to maintain the continued stable operation of the Chinese economy.
White House fires 5 staffers with marijuana history, releases He Jinli
The U.S. media earlier broke the news that dozens of White House staff who had smoked marijuana were forced to resign, suspended or to work in remote areas. White House spokesman Pusaki confirmed Friday (19) that authorities have fired five White House staff with a history of marijuana, but considering the potential loss of elites, the White House has updated its guidelines to avoid further loss of staff due to having smoked marijuana to qualify for the job.
Pusaki said the White House has been working with the security department for weeks to update policies to ensure that people with a history of marijuana are not automatically disqualified from working at the White House.
According to the new guidelines, the White House will review new recruits on a case-by-case basis, but only had “limited” use of marijuana, and to work as a “no security clearance” can be exempt. However, inductees must agree to stop using all marijuana products while in office and undergo random drug testing. If the date of last use of marijuana is more recent, the person will need to work remotely and will not be allowed to enter the White House for the time being.
Vice President He Jinli has spoken out on a radio show about illegal marijuana use during his college years, but the White House has not disclosed how it will be handled. Aaron Smith, president of the National Cannabis Industry Association, noted that three of the last five presidents have admitted to smoking marijuana, describing the White House’s approach as ridiculous. Oregon Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D) said the incident reflects the current marijuana policy is unrealistic, unfair and out of touch, that the government needs to find a fair and realistic way forward.
U.S., India join forces to take on Communist China
The Hindustan Times, The Hindu and other media reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on the 20th, focusing on joint responses to the threat from mainland China, and also said that working with like-minded partners He also said that working with like-minded partners is “the only way to stop any aggression.
The Hindustan Times, The Hindu and other media reported that U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on the 20th, focusing on joint responses to the threat from mainland China, saying that working together with like-minded partners The two men also said that working together with like-minded partners is “the only way to stop any aggression.
According to reports, the two men agreed to further deepen defense cooperation after holding talks on the 20th. Austin said the U.S. defense partnership with India will “continue to grow” in the coming years due to the increasing activity of mainland China in the South China Sea, stressing that it is working with India, Australia and Japan to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region remains free and open. Asked about India’s alleged “aggression” against mainland China on the Ladakh border, Austin said working with like-minded partners is “the only way to stop any aggression.
Singh noted that the talks focused on “expanding military engagement between the two countries,” saying India has agreed to strengthen cooperation with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Central Command and Africa Command, and discussed cross-service military exchanges, information sharing, cooperation in emerging defense areas and mutual logistical support. Singh also mentioned that he hopes U.S. industry will take advantage of India’s open foreign direct investment (FDI) policy to invest more in India’s defense sector.
After arriving in New Delhi, India, Austin has met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Singh, and will later meet with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
The U.S. designated India as a “key defense partner” in 2016 and signed a series of agreements to facilitate the transfer of advanced weapons and further military cooperation. However, AFP noted that India’s 2018 announcement to purchase Russian S-400 air defense missile systems, which could be targeted under the Countering America’s Adversaries with Sanctions Act (CAATSA), is an issue that needs to be carefully addressed by both sides.
Former White House staffer: Biden out of touch, U.S. in national security crisis
Former senior White House staffer Stephen Miller warned Friday (19) that adversaries are targeting the weakness of the U.S. government and that Americans’ security is severely diminished.
Miller was a guest on Fox anchor Sean Hannity’s news commentary program on Friday. Miller said on the show that President Biden’s verbal gaffes and missteps are brewing a “national security crisis.
Photo: Former senior White House staffer Stephen Miller.
Miller told host Sean Hannity, “Our adversaries around the world – Iran, Russia, Venezuela and China (Communist Party of China) – they are looking at the United States and its chief representative, the president of our country, and they can’t even do a simple interview without a memo. interview, tripping and falling three times on the boarding ladder.”
Biden stumbled three times on the boarding ladder while boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on Friday.
“I didn’t feel the slightest bit funny,” Miller said, adding, “It was extremely serious. I’ve been down those boarding ladders many times, and they’re not slippery at all, and the Air Force makes sure they’re not slippery.
I remember the press bashing Trump for touching the rail once. Biden falls repeatedly but I’m sure he’s No wonder all our enemies are pouncing simultaneously and mocking him publicly. pic.twitter.com/R1qN9DDHFW
- Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) March 19, 2021
Anchor Hannity noted that the media has been largely silent about Biden’s tripping, in stark contrast to their coverage of former President Trump’s careful walk down the ramp at West Point in New York.
Miller later said on the show that it was clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized Biden’s problems, which is why he challenged the U.S. president to a live debate after recently being called an “executioner” by Biden.
“They are openly laughing at us, they are laughing at President Biden,” Miller said, adding that it was humiliating, but that the United States had to compromise because it did have an “out-of-state commander-in-chief.
You get embarrassing episodes, like what happened in Alaska, where China (the Chinese Communist Party) dared to lecture us on human rights,” Miller said angrily. And Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan just sit there and take it?”
Miller concluded that the president is out of touch, that other countries see the weakness, that they are pouncing, and that “none of us are very safe.”
Seeking to weaponize trade, Communist China turns to authoritarian regime to gain stability in supply chain
To support its massive economic volume, mainland China is highly dependent on foreign imports of natural resources, and diversifying its supply chain to compensate for this deficiency has become a strategic priority for the Communist regime beyond its push for self-reliance.
A recent report by risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft notes that the CCP is “highly concentrated” in imports of key resources such as Crude Oil, coal, natural gas and iron ore, and that many of the major oil and gas producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, are countries that lack democratic freedoms.
Photo: A worker wearing a mask works on a production line for bicycle wheel rims in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province.
In addition to maintaining friendly relations with the CCP, political stability and regime type are the two main non-commercial factors that the CCP government always considers when diversifying its supply,” the report writes. Beijing prefers suppliers from stable authoritarian regimes to democracies where there are frequent changes of government and potential policy changes.”
The report argues that supply chain stability helps the CCP weaponize trade and gain greater geopolitical influence by leveraging its trade advantage in imports and exports to suppress its rivals.
The report uses the example of the CCP’s restrictions on coal imports from Australia’s interests. Australia’s call for an investigation into the origins of New Crown after it broke out angered the CCP, and Canberra’s major exports to mainland China were then restricted.
Employment is hard! The first college graduates exceeded nine million, the Chinese Communist Party encourages to become self-employed
China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently issued a notice, pointing out that the size of the 2021 class of college graduates reached 9.09 million, and the task of promoting employment is even more difficult given the uncertainty of “changes in the domestic and international environment and the Epidemic“.
In addition to traditional employment areas, the circular also pointed out that localities should guide and support entrepreneurship and innovation, actively support graduates with “will and potential” to engage in entrepreneurship and innovation, and support graduates to engage in self-employment, part-time employment and platform employment.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security encourages college students to start their own businesses, which is actually a “political show”, said Zhou Xiaozheng, a retired professor and sociologist from Renmin University of China.
“As for whether college students can be employed, that is their own business, this is not the bottom of the small officials are cheating the big officials. Since you let me solve the employment problem, I will give you a trick, such as encouraging self-employment, stall economy and so on. In Chinese vernacular, this policy is called ‘head but not buttocks’.”
Ten years ago, the number of Chinese college graduates was about 6.6 million, while the Ministry of Education predicts that the number of Chinese graduates will exceed 10 million next year.
He Jiangbing, a Chinese finance scholar, said the government is encouraging the odd-job economy largely because it has become difficult to meet the growing demand for employment through other employment channels.
It is worth noting that the recent notice issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security also mentions that localities should fully integrate graduates who have left school without employment into the real-name service to ensure that “registration is in place, contact is in place and support is in place”. According to He Jiangbing, the real-name system for unemployed graduates obviously has the purpose of maintaining stability.
Recent Comments