Quadripartite Talks between U.S., Japan, Australia and India
Moderator: Chen Kuide
Panelist: Mr. Song Yongyi, Professor at California State University, Director of the Labor Reform Research Foundation
I. Quadripartite Talks between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India
1) Background of the talks
Before the upcoming 2+2 talks between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party in Alaska, there are important geopolitical implications of holding the U.S.-Japan-Australia-India quadripartite summit meeting.
On March 12, U.S. President Joe Biden held a videoconference with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Australian Prime Minister Morrison, and Indian Prime Minister Moody to first gain consensus among the allies and then use that consensus to counter the rising and expanding Chinese Communist Party. This summit of the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Forum (QUAD) was the first since the Indo-Pacific strategy was launched in 2017. As this is not only the first summit since the four countries promoted the Indo-Pacific strategy, but also the first personally led video summit since Biden took power two months ago, actually with China as the main adversary, so it is highly anticipated by all parties.
“Although the Indo-Pacific Strategy has been promoted for four years, the former Pacific Command has been renamed Indo-Pacific Command, and some bilateral or trilateral joint maritime exercises have been held, but overall progress has been limited.
An important aspect of the Biden Administration‘s policy toward China, which follows that of former President Donald Trump, is the Indo-Pacific strategy.
India’s accession to the strategy has been an important development in recent years. India has always been a “non-aligned” country, but since its repeated border conflicts with the Chinese Communist Party in previous years, it has changed its diplomatic posture and joined the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy.
India’s participation in the Indo-Pacific Strategy not only increases India’s leverage and power to confront the Chinese Communist Party, but also makes it more difficult for the Chinese Communist Party to join Russia to confront the West.
Earlier Background.
The history of the “Quadripartite Talks” dates back to 2004, after the South Asian tsunami, when countries intended to work together to establish a communication platform in response to the crisis, until it was formally formed in 2007 by the United States, Japan, Australia and India. In 2008, India faded from the Quadripartite Talks on the grounds that it would not participate in any activities against China. Australia’s trade dependence on China was so high that then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd also withdrew from the dialogue for fear of offending China.
After Trump took office, the four leaders decided to resume the Quadripartite Talks in 2017 during the ASEAN Summit in Manila. According to the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy framework declassified in January this year, the Trump Administration intends to create the “quadripartite talks” between the U.S., India, Japan and Australia as the principal hubs of the Indo-Pacific strategy. 2020, the end of the quadripartite first joint participation in Malabar (Malabar) joint military exercises.
The Quad’s resurgence depends on China’s more aggressive actions in the region, giving the four countries a reason to renew their interest in working together.
(As expected, Beijing immediately shifted its attitude toward New Delhi as soon as it got hold of information about the upcoming QUAD between the U.S. and India.)
2) In terms of topics, the Quadripartite Forum has expanded its functional scope and is not limited to the military field
The current development of the situation has given the Quadripartite Forum a higher and broader role and a comprehensive connotation, which may become the core and embryo of the democratic international. In other words, it is not only an Asian NATO, but it may be expanded into a world democratic alliance.
In terms of military strategy, the quadripartite forum’s Indo-Pacific strategy has expanded from the current four groups of 2+2 (“two foreign ministers and two defense ministers”) to 4+4 meetings, from bilateral and trilateral joint maritime military exercises to quadrilateral joint maritime military exercises and even quadrilateral multi-military exercises, and towards local weapons standardization, as well as expanding a series of other The cooperation has expanded to a range of other areas.
File photo: U.S., Australian, Japanese and Indian foreign ministers hold quadrilateral talks in Tokyo on October 6, 2020.
- Vaccine Diplomacy to Counter China
U.S.-led quartet joins forces to launch vaccine program
Described as a “historic achievement,” the four countries announced the launch of a program for a new vaccine crown, with the United States providing key technology, Japan forming the financing vehicle, India manufacturing, and Australia delivering the program to significantly increase vaccine production capacity, with the goal of reaching one billion doses by 2022, to address the shortage of vaccines in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in Southeast Asia. countries.
Beijing has pledged to provide some 500 million doses of vaccines to at least 45 countries, 25 of which have already started. The purpose of China’s “vaccine diplomacy” is to pre-empt the developing world’s fears and to extend its influence after the failure of the Communist Party to control the Epidemic that led to the global pandemic, in order to save face and avoid recrimination.
“At the end of the summit, leaders of the Quartet members announced a new vaccine program to address vaccine shortages in Southeast Asian countries. While the four countries called it a historic collaboration, the Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized it as “small-circle”.
China’s aggressive behavior in the region is causing other Indo-Pacific countries to quickly warm up to the quadripartite talks.
“A free and open Indo-Pacific region is essential. The United States is committed to working with you, our partners, and all of our allies in the region to achieve regional stability, and this (Quad) is a particularly important group.” In the White House State Dining Room, Biden led a high-level national security team lined up in front of three television screens projecting the heads of Japan, Australia and India to express the U.S. commitment to participating in Indo-Pacific cooperation. This is the first multilateral summit hosted by Biden since he took office.
The U.S. participants included Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, NSC Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell, NSC Senior Director for South Asia Sumona Guha, and White House Coordinator for the New crown outbreak. Biden not only made the announcement through the last week, but also through the new White House epidemic coordinator Jeff Zients.
Secondly, Biden not only made full use of the epidemic prevention issue through the last meeting to strengthen the alliance with the Indo-Pacific strategy and European allies, but also used the epidemic prevention and public health issues to organize the industry chain and supply chain alliance, to compete with China-oriented countries in the long run.
- Rare earth diplomacy to counteract China
The four-nation forum will control the rare earth production and procurement chain to prevent the Chinese Communist Party from using restrictions on rare earth exports to affect other countries’ related technology industries.
- “Alliance for Democracy in Science and Technology”
President Biden will implement Trump’s basic approach to the war on technology by continuing to sanction Chinese telecom companies.
The Biden administration warned China through the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that five telecommunications industries, including huawei and ZTE, had jeopardized U.S. national security, and decided to “follow the rules” and continue to sanction mainland telecommunications companies.
Since Biden announced that he would form a “Coalition for Democracy in Science and Technology” to counter the “Coalition for Tyranny in Science and Technology,” he has proposed many policies, new norms and rules, and sanctions that prove he wants to engage in a “war on science and technology” with China. “He is not just talking about it, but playing it for real.
The “Small Yard, High Wall” Strategy
Not full decoupling, but focused decoupling, high-tech decoupling, military technology decoupling. Once decoupled, clean and thorough.
The four countries also announced the formation of a climate working group, as well as a working group on critical and emerging technologies, the latter of which will focus on setting common standards for critical 5G and artificial intelligence technologies, joint responses to cyber threats, and critical technology supply chain issues. Sullivan said the chip shortage and the cyberattack on Microsoft emails earlier this month were discussed at the meeting.
- Allies first, then the Chinese Communist Party; get consensus first, use consensus to control Beijing
“The U.S. will have a busy week of Indo-Pacific diplomacy after the Quadripartite talks. Secretary of State John Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will travel to Tokyo and Seoul from March 15 to 18 for 2+2 talks with the foreign and defense ministers of Japan and South Korea. This is the first overseas trip by a senior official after the Biden administration took office.
Austin followed with a trip to India.
Then, Blinken and national security adviser Sullivan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and a member of the Politburo, in Anchorage, Alaska, on March 18 and 19.
Blinken said they would exchange views on strategic issues such as epidemic prevention, climate change, nonproliferation and denuclearization, and insisted that they would discuss Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet and border issues.
Sullivan said the U.S. has no intention of touching on tariff-related issues in the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal during the 18-day talks. This is tantamount to telling Beijing that the U.S. only wants to talk about principles and general directions first on the 18th, and other issues will be exempted for the Time being.
Apparently, this is exactly the rule that Blinken set in his first press conference: cooperation is fine, but it has to be done in accordance with the U.S. way.
Sullivan said in 12, the first high-level dialogue with China is to communicate clearly with the Chinese side, “I would not expect the first phase of the trade agreement is the main topic, we have to try to speak clearly with the Chinese government, the U.S. efforts at the strategic level, our basic interests and values, our concerns about Hong Kong, Xinjiang, the Taiwan Strait, and what we heard today from partner countries to hear about issues that encompass China’s threat to Australia, its harassment of the Senkaku Islands and its aggression on the Indian border.”
Prime Minister Kan visits the United States
Prime Minister Kan held a telephone conversation with President Biden on January 28 and will visit the United States in the first half of April for a scheduled “first” Japan-U.S. summit meeting with President Biden. Prime Minister Kan will be the “first” foreign head of state that President Biden will meet in person.
In the quadripartite talks have a higher and broader role and comprehensive connotation, and may become the kernel and embryo of a democratic international, and later, under more mature conditions, most democratic countries, including the EU, may gather together.
The Communist Party of China and Russia are preparing to form an axial alliance
On July 23, 2008, a pier construction site was seen on Dongsha Island.
Under the pressure of the U.S.-led “Quadripartite Talks” and the preparation of the “Alliance for Science and Technology and Democracy,” China and Russia have also gathered such countries as North Korea, Iran, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cambodia, and Laos to form a 16-nation alliance.
The goal is to prevent the U.S.-led democracies from joining forces in the United Nations to promote sanctions against countries, mainly China, that violate democracy, freedom and human rights, and to take joint action against the U.S.-led democracies’ “bullying of the weak by the strong” in science and technology.
Weaknesses
Russia and China have long been at odds with each other and in different beds, and can only temporarily join forces in critical situations, but cannot become stable allies with the same values. The attitude of Russia in selling weapons during the Sino-Indian border conflict is an obvious example.
Third, the red line for the U.S. military to move against the Chinese Communist Party
Establishing a Global Maritime Alliance
In the recently concluded Communist Party of China (CPC) sessions, the international community raised its guard with signals of military threats from the CPC. on March 9, Commander Davidson of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command issued a warning about the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Recently, retired U.S. Army General James Stavridis wrote another article, revealing that the U.S. has drawn a red line for the Chinese Communist Party, and that if the line is crossed, the U.S. military could open fire on the Chinese Communist Party.
Stavridis served as the Supreme Commander of NATO Allied Forces and spent most of his military career in the Pacific.
He recently wrote in Nikkei Asia that the overall U.S. strategy is to build a global maritime alliance to confront the Chinese Communist Party.
A few red lines
According to Stavridis, the United States will draw several red lines for the Chinese Communist Party, including.
- the Chinese Communist Party or North Korea attacking the United States and its allies with nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.
- A Communist attack on Taiwan and the outlying islands by force, including an economic blockade or a large-scale Cyber Attack on Taiwan.
- an attack by the Chinese Communist Party on the Diaoyu Islands and The Japanese military.
- deployment of Chinese Communist forces on islands in the South China Sea against other claimants to sovereignty.
- obstruction of full freedom of navigation operations by the U.S. and allied navies.
- Communist attacks on the sovereign territories and military facilities of U.S. allies.
Stavridis said that in the context of the U.S.-China strategy, the U.S. Marine Corps will firmly hold the seas and be able to sail into the waters of the South China Sea and penetrate the island chains on which the Chinese Communist Party relies for defense.
At the same time, the U.S. Marines will use armed Drones, cyber attack capabilities, powerful special forces “Marine Raiders,” anti-aircraft missiles, and even ship-hunting weapons to attack the Communist Party’s maritime forces and even its land bases of operations. For example, the Chinese Communist Party’s militarized artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Stavridis said the United States hopes to work with allies to deal with the Chinese Communist Party, the Department of Defense hopes, in particular, NATO allies such as the United Kingdom and France can also participate in it; also hope that Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam can participate in such military deployment operations.
French and German Warships Sail in South China Sea
Recently, both France and Germany have made positive moves in response to the Chinese Communist Party’s challenge. French Defense Minister Paley tweeted on February 8 that the French nuclear-powered submarine Emerald, accompanied by the support ship Seine, had sailed through the South China Sea.
In early March, the German Defense Ministry also announced that the frigate Bavaria would set sail from Wilhelmshaven to the Far East and would cross the South China Sea on its return voyage.
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