Beijing is now in the middle of the two sessions, and different people are concerned about different priorities. Today we also come together to talk about some of the important points of the two sessions this year. We can’t see the doorway, but at least we can be lively and talk to you about the central government.
As we all know, the two sessions are held every year, in addition to explaining policies to officials in the system, it is also a meeting for the Chinese Communist Party to show the legitimacy of the ruling. This year, the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) were held on March 4 and 5, respectively, and the session was compressed by a few days compared to previous years, closing today, the 11th.
During the two sessions, the expressions of the official media and officials often reveal very important directions. One of the buzzwords this year, which officials emphasized and the official media reported extensively, was “steering the ship”.
For example, Chen Miner, secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, said, “General Secretary Xi Jinping is steering the ship.
Cai Qi, secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee, attributed the credit for fighting the Epidemic and fighting poverty to “the fundamental fact that General Secretary Xi Jinping is at the helm of the ship”.
In his speech, Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang said that the great victories achieved in recent years “are the result of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s steering and piloting”.
Li Xi, secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, said he deeply appreciated that “the General Secretary steering the helm” is “where our greatest confidence lies, where the bottom line lies, where the strength lies.
Li Hongzhong, secretary of the Tianjin Municipal Party Committee, said that the Communist Party of China “has made remarkable achievements in the world because of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s steering and piloting”.
Fujian Provincial Party Secretary Yin Li also stated, “The achievements are not easy to come by, but the fundamental lies in General Secretary Xi Jinping’s steering and strong leadership of the Party Central Committee.”
Wang Chen, vice chairman of the National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China, touted Xi’s core as “the core of the Party at the helm of the ship” when he attended the Zhejiang delegation’s deliberations.
Ding Xuexiang, Xi Jinping’s top secretary and director of the Central Office, was even more exaggerated when he stated at the Guizhou delegation that the CPC Central Committee, with Xi at its core, is “the steering wheel that will steadily lead the way. How to say “helmsman” is still only a person, the fixed plate “star”, this is really “blown to the sky”.
The officials we mentioned above are basically a group of Xi Jinping’s most important cronies, Chen Miner, Cai Qi, Li Qiang, Li Xi, Yin Li, Ding Xuexiang, all of them are the core figures of Xi Jinping’s so-called “Zhijiang New Army”.
This is the word used to describe the leader. During the “Cultural Revolution“, as soon as Mao Zedong showed up, the song “Sail the Sea by the Helmsman” must be accompanied. And blowing up, this is the level of the great leader, “Cultural Revolution” before there are songs, “look up to see the Big Dipper, miss Mao Zedong.” Now Xi Jinping is the fixed star, which means that Xi Jinping is the level of great leader, the same level as Mao Zedong.
In addition, the NPC considered the Draft Organic Law of the National People’s Congress (Amendment), which was presumably passed today. This amendment to the Organic Law authorizes the NPC Standing Committee to decide on the appointment and removal of “other members of the State Council” between sessions of the NPC, including the appointment and removal of Vice Premier and State Councillors of the State Council; it can also decide on the appointment and removal of other members of the Military Commission upon nomination by the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
In the past, the NPC Standing Committee could only appoint and remove ministry-level officials such as heads of State Council ministries and commissions. After the adoption of the draft, the NPC Standing Committee will be able to appoint and remove the Vice Premier of the State Council, State Councillors, Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission and members of the Military Commission at any Time. We all know that the NPC is Li Zhanshu’s turf and the NPC Standing Committee is basically controlled by Xi. So the purpose of this amendment is that in the next two years, Xi Jinping can adjust senior officials at the vice state level at any time, including vice premiers of the State Council, vice chairmen of the military commission, members of the military commission, and so on.
This is the first amendment to the NPC Organic Law in more than 30 years.
It appears that this draft article is mainly aimed at the State Council, the system run by Li Keqiang. This year and next, changes in the personnel of the Vice Premier of the State Council are probably to be expected.
In fact, since the 18th National Congress, Li Keqiang’s status and power as Premier has been weakened. Compared to Wen Jiabao and Zhu Rongji, Li Keqiang basically has little power, let alone compared to Zhou Enlai. Li Keqiang can probably only be considered an economic executive management official. In the past, the appointment of Vice Premier of the State Council is nominated by the Premier, but of course this is only a superficial form, the appointment of such senior officials at the vice-state level, are the products of high-level factional games, compromise, not Li Keqiang alone can shoot the decision. The expansion of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress is not only a further reduction of Li Keqiang’s power, but also a move by Xi Jinping to lay out the top personnel of the 20th Congress in advance.
With less than two years to go before the 20th CPC National Congress, top-level personnel arrangements need to be determined internally in advance. After the passage of the Draft Amendment to the Organic Law, it is expected that there will be changes to the Vice Premier of the State Council and even the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission soon. Xi Jinping is currently at the “core” of the Communist Party, and with his strong anti-corruption efforts to deter his political opponents, he has dominant power over top-level personnel, and Li Zhanshu, the current chairman of the National People’s Congress, is a close friend of Xi Jinping.
On the one hand, Xi Jinping’s move is to put his close friends in place in advance, to position key positions in the 20th National Assembly, to create a fait accompli situation, so that the officialdom and political opponents do not dare to openly oppose; on the other hand, to put his close friends in place in advance, to increase troops to help in the 20th National Assembly’s core personnel battle, to change the power contrast between the two sides. More importantly, to prevent anti-Xi forces such as the Jiang faction from gathering for a coup at the 20th National Congress and temporarily threatening to change earlier internal personnel agreements.
Previously, Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong manipulated the military to stage a coup at the 16th Communist Party Congress, and there were fierce games at the 17th, 18th and 19th Communist Party Congresses, with dark horses emerging until the last minute. Xi Jinping is now laying the groundwork in advance to eliminate the potential for a coup and reduce the number of variables.
In the past, the CCP has been designated from generation to generation, Hu Jintao was designated by Deng, Xi Jinping was designated by Jiang, and before Hu Jintao went down, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zhengcai were intentionally designated.
Before the 19th CPC National Congress, Sun Zhengcai suddenly fell from the horse, and once there were rumors that Chen Miner would replace Sun as the successor to the premier; however, at the 19th CPC National Congress, Chen Miner and Hu Chunhua, the successor to the group, both failed to join the Standing Committee. Before and after the Fourth Plenary Session and Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, there were rumors of Chen Miner and Hu Chunhua joining the Standing Committee and becoming successors, and there were also rumors of Xi Jinping’s former top secretary and Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang entering Beijing as Vice Premier, but that did not happen at either the Fourth Plenary Session or the Fifth Plenary Session. Many people believe that probably the internal struggle is fierce.
This time, after the NPC “Organic Law (Draft Amendment)” is passed, Chen Miner and Li Qiang, it is possible that soon into Beijing, as Vice Premier. According to the time projection, it should not be later than the seventh plenary session at the end of this year.
Let’s look at some of the hot spots that the people are concerned about.
The first is the GDP growth target, which is more than 6%, not around, but more than. GDP is a concern because Li Keqiang did not mention GDP at the two sessions in 2020, and the outside world estimates that GDP under the Chinese Communist Party virus is too ugly to mention, and some scholars even estimate that it is negative. So Lao Li made it clear for the first time last year that China would not set a GDP growth target, the first time since the GDP target was first set in 1994.
This year set 6%, the party media said is China has the strength, last year’s epidemic against the trend of 2.3% growth, the world’s only major economies to achieve positive economic growth, this is actually incorrect, because Taiwan last year grew 2.8%, higher than mainland China. And whether the Chinese Communist Party can be trusted with that data, we all see, anyway, I do not believe.
But this year, this 6%, probably nothing wrong, because the economy was so bad last year, and may even be negative growth, so if the epidemic slowed down, the recovery process is growth. If the epidemic really improves, it is estimated that global growth is very large, certainly more than 6%, for example, Europe last year recession of 10%, this year to restore the situation of the previous year, there will be more than 10% growth.
Secondly, the two sessions trumpeted two great victories, one is the victory over the epidemic, and the other is the total eradication of poverty.
Defeating the epidemic may cause a lot of controversy, right? It is not a great victory to overcome a scourge that you have created yourself.
And the comprehensive poverty eradication is more controversial. When I talked to some of my mainland friends, they all treated this comprehensive poverty eradication as a joke. Because this is a simple mathematical problem, 19 years did not get rid of poverty, 20 years encountered a serious epidemic, the economy was greatly affected, but the results instead of poverty?
Li Keqiang last year at the two sessions, also publicly mentioned that 600 million people in China have a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan, which was considered a slap in the face of President Xi’s goal of poverty eradication. This year’s NPC government report Li Keqiang issued another “to ensure that no large-scale return to poverty” remarks, public opinion, because it is consistent with the outside world has been criticizing President Xi is again engaged in “campaign-style poverty eradication”.
Another point of interest is population, pension and delayed retirement. This one is very relevant to all the people.
Now China is facing an aging crisis, the world’s aging countries are rich countries, per capita GDP to 30,000 U.S. dollars when the emergence of China’s 12,000 U.S. dollars, so it is called before the rich first old.
Official data on February 26 said that in the next five years, China’s elderly population will exceed 300 million people, and the working population has decreased significantly by 35 million people. Squeezed at both ends, I wonder how Old Li’s 6% GDP growth rate will be achieved. So again brought out has been tangled delayed retirement program, now controversial in a handful of men and women are delayed to 65 retired, or progressive first male 65, female slow? Or provide for other age retirement, after two days to see the results. In short, delayed retirement is the general direction, no money well.
Some deputies proposed a pilot in the northeast, the full liberalization of casual birth, and even allocate funds to encourage birth, and lower the age of Marriage, girls can get married at the age of 18 (now 20 years old). However, many experts say that even if you let go of the birth, it’s too late. Because at least 20 years later, it will be reflected in the labor force and tax revenue.
Another point to watch is the completion of one country, one system in Hong Kong.
Before the two sessions, the Communist Party of Hong Kong (CPC) cooperated with the action. 47 people who participated in the democratic primary election in Hong Kong were charged with conspiracy to subvert state power, and then the Hong Kong media rumored that the two sessions might discuss changing the election system in Hong Kong.
At the beginning of the year, Xi Jinping proposed the so-called “patriots ruling Hong Kong”, which is tantamount to DQing the principle of Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong, and Beijing also set the tone one after another. Then the two National People’s Congresses considered draft resolutions to change Hong Kong’s electoral system, including a significant reduction in the proportion of directly elected Legislative Council seats, the full implementation of the principle of “patriots ruling Hong Kong”, and the establishment of a so-called “new democratic electoral system with Hong Kong characteristics”, nakedly depriving Hong Kong people of their He also wants to ensure that all elections are controlled by the central government.
However, Li Keqiang still mentioned “one country, two systems, Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong, and a high degree of autonomy” in his government report, and he did not mention anything about patriots ruling Hong Kong, which some people said was an open declaration of war against Xi on behalf of the anti-Xi forces! This may be too much, but Li Keqiang will definitely retire in 2022, the last two years, what to say what to say, what can say what to say, probably so.
This year’s two sessions and a farcical thing that everyone is clamoring for, is: Xi Jinping’s cup.
CCTV live footage shows that one of the two “teacups” placed in front of him, next to the Bureau Standing Committee Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, and CPPCC members of the table are a teacup.
Some people analyze: two teacups, one filled with water, one filled with Medicine. That means Xi Jinping unhealthy, sick, can not open a day meeting, from time to time from the pocket to touch the pills in the mouth, and then drink a mouthful of water to swallow it. So, put the hot water in a cup of tea, to the time to drink, the camera can not see any difference, is not harmonious?
This kind of thing, overseas may not care, but the mainland people care, especially the mainland officialdom will be very, very concerned. The leader’s health is the top secret, the reason is that the following officials are political officials, the need to observe the words, follow the wind stand, stand on the right side is the most important. Under the autocratic system, if The Emperor has health problems, something big must happen politically.
But for those outside the system, especially overseas, this matter, it is just a laughing matter.