Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said on Sept. 9 that the Chinese Communist Party expects to replace the U.S. leadership and that solving the Taiwan issue is one of its ambitions, and that such a threat could emerge in the next 10 years, or even six years. Davidson suggested that the United States should provide defense materiel and services to Taiwan so that Taiwan can maintain its self-defense capabilities.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson appeared before the Congressional Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on September 9, with several senators focusing on Taiwan’s security. Asked by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan about the timeline for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Davidson noted that the Chinese Communist Party is accelerating its ambition to replace the United States and the leadership of the U.S. rules-based international order, a goal it has long hoped to achieve by 2050.
Davidson said he is concerned that this timeline will come early and that Taiwan is clearly one of the ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party before it achieves this goal, and that “such a threat is going to be evident in the next 10 years, in fact probably the next six years.”
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Texas) asked if he agreed that the United States should maintain a capability sufficient to prevent the Chinese Communist Party from creating a fait accompli against Taiwan. Davidson said the pace of the Chinese Communist Party is accelerating, as evidenced by actions taken in Hong Kong, the South China Sea, the East China Sea and Taiwan. If the Communist Party is able to unilaterally change the regional status quo, he fears that such changes will be permanent. The Chinese Communist Party is removing obstacles, such as the Hong Kong national security law and the abolition of “one country, two systems,” that have sent shivers down the spine of the entire region about its ambitions.
U.S. Senator Rick Scott (R-SC)
Senator Rick Scott (R-UT) asked if he agreed that Communist China must be prevented from taking control of Taiwan. Davidson said that as an operational commander in the Indo-Pacific region, he is obligated to support the Taiwan Relations Act. From a geostrategic standpoint, this is critical to the U.S. global position.
In February, Scott reintroduced the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, which authorizes the U.S. president to use limited force in certain circumstances to secure Taiwan from military attack.
Davidson said the policy of strategic ambiguity over the past 40 years has helped Taiwan maintain the status quo. He agreed that this policy should be revisited periodically and argued for continued stability in arms sales to Taiwan to assist in Taiwan’s ability to continue to move forward. The U.S. provides professional assistance to Taiwan to improve its defense capabilities, and Indo-Pacific Command will also regularly provide assistance in Taiwan’s Han Kwang exercises, sending observers to understand Taiwan’s defense and exercise activities, and deepening bilateral relations.
Davidson: U.S. should strengthen attack weapons budget to let the Chinese Communist Party know the cost is too large
Davidson another to the PLA recently released a simulation of the attack on the suspected hypothetical target of Guam video pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party in recent years in the South China Sea to militarize the construction of a major threat to U.S. territory, “Guam is now also (their) target.”
Davidson asked members of Congress to agree to the installation of the SHIELD land-based rebound system on Guam in response to the threat of missiles from the Chinese Communist Party. In addition to installing the S.H.I.E.L.D. defense system in allies such as Australia and Japan, the U.S. should strengthen its attack weapons budget in the Asia-Pacific region to let the Chinese Communist Party know that its ambition to take over the U.S. position “will be too costly.”
In addition, Davidson also recently proposed to Congress for $27 billion in “deterrence funding”, including the purchase of new weapons, strengthening military cooperation with allies and exercises to maintain U.S. strategic advantage in the Indo-Pacific region.
Taiwan scholar: Taiwan is the frontline of the collision between sea power and land power
In response to U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Davis’ warning that the Chinese Communist Party may solve the Taiwan issue within six years, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense think tank and Director of the Institute of Military Strategy and Industry at the National Security Research Institute Su Zi-yun studied and judged in an interview with Radio Free Asia that “Davis’ statement has a strategic reality because he is the first-line commander and has a strategic grasp of the Chinese Communist Party’s military power, as well as some of the tactical intelligence.”
Taiwan’s naval special forces conduct an exercise in Kaohsiung on January 27, 2021.
According to Su, the competition between China and the United States is not a matter of economics or great power competition, but rather a competition between the “Chinese authoritarian model” and the “Western democratic model.
The most important thing about Taiwan’s geographic location is that it is at the forefront of the collision between sea power and land power,” Su said. Taiwan’s importance is not only geopolitical, but also involves the balance of nuclear warfare power, because the Chinese Communist Party’s nuclear submarines can launch an attack on the U.S. mainland if they cross the Bus Strait to the Philippine Sea.”
Su Zi-yun suggested that increasing Taiwan’s traditional deterrence capability is what will prevent the CCP from taking military action within the six years he (Davis) said.
Taiwan’s former defense official: Beijing would not be dumb enough to take Taiwan by force
Taiwan’s former deputy defense minister Lin Zhongbin said in an interview with Radio Free Asia that he agrees with the international community’s analysis of the Chinese Communist Party’s development of the world and its intentions toward Taiwan, but he believes the Chinese side will not use force to take Taiwan.
China will not be so stupid as to use military force. From 1979 to 2021, he has not used military force in 42 years, except once in 1988, when he fought with Vietnam in the Battle of Chigua Reef. Unlike the United States and the former Soviet Union and Russia, the United States has used its military seven times to occupy two countries, while the former Soviet Union and Russia have used theirs five times to occupy three countries.”
Lin also said that from 1949 to 1979, when China was very poor and not very powerful, it used troops six times, so this is a big difference. When China is rich and has a strong military, it will try not to use troops to deal with the problem.
In response to Davis’ prediction, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense spokesman Shi Shunwen said in an interview with Radio Free Asia that the Chinese Communist Party has never given up on resolving cross-strait issues by force, and that the national army will continue to strengthen its combat readiness and enhance its combat capabilities on the basis of the existing ones, and be prepared to respond to the relevant contents mentioned by the U.S. side, which are listed as the enemy’s possible courses of action.