Economist Roach: Wall Street overestimates consumer rebound V-shaped recovery difficult to sustain

The U.S. Senate passed a $1.9 trillion Epidemic relief package, and the market envisions that the economy will soon recover. Stephen Roach, a senior economist at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said in an interview with foreign media that Wall Street had overestimated the momentum of the consumer rebound, and that it would be very difficult to maintain the V-shaped recovery that many people had been hoping for.

Roach pointed out that durable goods consumption has rebounded to a high level in 13 to 14 years, reflecting the suppressed demand has largely met. He continued to say that he does not believe that more and more people receive vaccinations, but will be spent on furniture and cars from the huge amount of spending, into a huge amount of spending on restaurants and theaters. These face-to-face activities are still suppressed by the employment and demand situation, and even if the vaccine is obtained, the impact may still be measured in seasons or even years.