International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) yesterday (3) published the “annual semiconductor key layout market outlook” report, SEMI global marketing director and Taiwan president Tsao Shih-Lun said, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, last year’s strong counter-trend growth, once again become a pivotal industry; Tsao Shih-Lun said, in the past 10 years Taiwan has been the world’s largest semiconductor equipment investment region for seven years, TSMC‘s capital expenditure this year and a new high, so SEMI expects Taiwan to return to the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market in this year.
For Taiwan’s semiconductor industry this year’s outlook, Cao Shi Lun said: “With these so-called PC, or cell phones, and the popularization of these new 5G, Taiwan in 2021, or even the next 5-10 years, will play a very important role. Taiwan’s counter-trend growth last year, the output value exceeded 3 trillion New Taiwan dollars, jumped to the second place in the world, annual growth of 20.7%, this year, Taiwan is expected to become a global focus.”
SEMI industry research director Zeng Ruiyu said that last year, global semiconductor equipment sales hit $ 69 billion, an annual increase of 16% to write a new record, is expected to grow by more than 10% this year and exceed $ 76 billion, and has the opportunity to accelerate growth and break through the $ 80 billion mark. And in January this year, North America semiconductor equipment shipments amounted to more than 3 billion U.S. dollars, once again hit a record high.
Zeng Ruiyu said, foundry capacity has been in short supply and will continue into the second half of the year, 8-inch wafer foundry capacity tight will continue into next year. Therefore, in the case of the industry’s big action investment in expansion, the next few years will be the semiconductor equipment market super cycle (super cycle).
In the memory market, Zeng Ruiyu pointed out that this year is a year of DRAM market boom turnaround, with cell phone DRAM recovering faster than expected, Chinese cell phone manufacturers’ optimistic stocking and shipment forecasts, and strong Apple iPhone sales. Therefore, more 5G cell phones will be launched in the second half of the year and push up the demand for mobile DRAM. Demand for server DRAM and standard DRAM is strong. Prices are currently rising after bottoming out in the first quarter and will continue to be bullish in the coming quarters.
SEMI’s market outlook report also analyzes that data centers, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence applications will drive the industry in 2021, with DRAM equipment investment growing by 20%, which will be a reversal year, and foundry, packaging, and testing also continue to grow. Automotive semiconductors can be said to have full potential driven by the wave of electric vehicles, in the next 5-10 years, compound annual growth is expected to reach 10%.
Cao also said that the global countries can now be said to be engaged in a technology war, this kind of thing will never be because of Trump or Biden to make huge changes, and this kind of supply chain fragmentation and restructuring, he thinks will continue to ferment in the semiconductor industry.
However, Cao also pointed out that, although Taiwan’s semiconductor industry operations are positive, but also facing “geopolitical” impact, because the geopolitical situation changes will accelerate the pace of production transfer and supply chain relocation. The rise of “protectionism” in various countries will also promote the progress of manufacturing capacity in other regions, such as the EU last year, many countries have decided to joint venture to expand investment in advanced semiconductor processes. Therefore, Taiwan needs to continue to innovate and expand the scale of investment to enhance market competitiveness, and must solve the problem of talent retention and talent shortage.
Finally, Tsao also gave three major recommendations for the semiconductor industry: first, it is necessary to study “geopolitical” credits, second, to participate actively in international organizations, and third, to be the decision-maker rather than the decision-maker. He also encouraged Taiwanese manufacturers to learn to be global leaders and to become international standard setters and influencers.
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