Chinese commentator Cao Changqing analyzes the situation in the Taiwan Strait as China’s military intimidation of Taiwan continues.
Chinese Communist Party military aircraft continue to harass Taiwan waters, and on Tuesday it was even rumored that they flew over at a low altitude of 300 meters for the first Time, with a strong provocative meaning. U.S. international scholar Mei Huilin said Xi Jinping believes the Chinese military is capable of occupying Taiwan within two years. All sides are concerned about whether Beijing authorities really want to use force against Taiwan. Cao Changqing, an independent Chinese-American commentator, argues that China’s show of force would not only fail, but bring seven strategic benefits to Taiwan.
One, a shift in U.S. strategic focus to Asia
In the past, the Obama, Bush Jr. and Clinton administrations strengthened their military forces in Asia to avoid angering Beijing, saying that they were dealing with North Korea, but in fact they all had strategic considerations to restrain China. Now the Chinese army is showing off its arms, and the only “second-hand” aircraft carrier has been brought to the Taiwan Strait, including the construction of islands in the South China Sea, so that the United States is justified to strengthen its military power in Asia.
Second, stimulate Japan to increase military spending
Japan’s Defense Minister Tomomi Inada is a well-known hawk, she is even tougher than former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, advocating the revision of the post-war constitution and the upgrading of the Self-Defense Forces to a national defense force.
However, post-war Japanese military spending is limited to a ratio of no more than 1% of GDP, which is why it is $51 billion (2017).
The U.S. wants Japan’s military spending to increase to NATO member level (3% of GDP). Chinese warplanes and aircraft carriers circling Taiwan are also considered a threat by Japan, so it also gives The Japanese government a reason to strengthen its military. If Japan’s military spending increases, it will increase the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance and pose more of a deterrent to China.
Third, push the U.S. to provide more weapons to Taiwan
The United States has long had bills such as the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances to Taiwan, which guarantee the provision of defense weapons to Taiwan. Now that China continues to threaten Taiwan, it gives the Pentagon a reason to sell Taiwan weapons, and the U.S.-Taiwan military relationship is expected to strengthen.
Fourth, strengthen the Taiwanese people’s sense of enemy and self
Under Ma Ying-jeou’s eight-year rule of the KMT, Taiwan’s awareness of the enemy has declined unprecedentedly, and even retired KMT generals have made pilgrimages to Beijing to listen to the Chinese Communist Party leader’s lectures. Now the people of Taiwan are cognizant that the Chinese Communist regime, which has targeted Taiwan with more than a thousand missiles, is Taiwan’s greatest enemy! The strengthening of the Taiwanese people’s heart and defense is an important barrier against foreign enemies.
Fifth, it is clearer to see the KMT’s mindset of pandering to the Communist Party
When China threatens Taiwan, the KMT has been singing along, just about saying outright that they should bow down under the threat of China. Over the years, the KMT has been keen on this argument that China is militarily strong and Taiwan can hardly defend itself, etc., as a way to scare the people of Taiwan.
Former KMT Chairman Lien Chan once went to Beijing and publicly shouted “United Communist Party for Taiwan independence”. What is Taiwan independence? It is just an option for the people. The KMT wants to unite with evil against the people of Taiwan. This will only strengthen the belief of the Taiwanese people: Use your votes to eliminate the KMT!
Sixth, strengthen Taiwan’s determination to develop its own weapons
China’s armed scare of Taiwan will further increase the ROC military’s belief in developing submarines and extended-range missiles. Taiwan’s existing Xiongnu III missiles have the ability to be used at low altitude (avoiding the opponent’s radar), fast (50 kilometers per minute), and penetrating to the deck, which would constitute a devastating blow to aircraft carriers.
The range of the extended-range missiles is over 300 km (double the current Xiongsan). The average width of the Taiwan Strait is 180 kilometers, and the length of the Taiwan Strait is 300 kilometers from north to south, which means that when a Chinese aircraft carrier enters the Taiwan Strait, it enters the range of the Xiongsan missiles.
A little military knowledge of aircraft carriers, or even just watching the history of the U.S.-Japanese naval battles after Pearl Harbor, knows that once the carrier is found by the other side at sea, it will be blown up by the other side’s aircraft. So in 1996, when China threatened Taiwan with missile drills, the two U.S. carriers entered the Asia-Pacific (a potential warning confrontation), and there were multiple warships around the carriers for 200 nautical miles to guard and protect them.
Seven, people in Taiwan see reality
Ma Ying-jeou has been in power for eight years and has been subservient to China, but after he left office, he was still humiliated by Beijing when he attended a Chinese forum in Malaysia (he was not allowed to be called President of the Republic of China). Tsai Ing-wen is still “maintaining the status quo”, almost exactly the same as Ma’s “no unification, no independence, no military”. In her many inaugural speeches, the Double Ten speech, and the New Year’s speech, President Tsai Ing-wen emphasized that she would not confront Beijing no matter how much it suppressed her, but the result was still suppression by China.
Beijing has not only used aircraft carriers and military planes to demonstrate around Taiwan, but has also lured several of Taiwan’s diplomatic countries to alienate Taiwan, clearly telling the people of Taiwan that no matter what you do, China will suppress you.
Recent Comments