Taiwan think tank: Chinese Communist Party has begun to implement war plans against Taiwan

A mural recording history in Kinmen, Taiwan

The National Policy Research Foundation (NPRF), a blue-leaning think tank in Taiwan, held a symposium on Thursday to discuss the “Chinese Communist Party‘s military threat to Taiwan.

There is no guarantee that the United States will protect Taiwan in the event of war in the Taiwan Strait

The former U.S. scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro said that the Chinese Communist Party could invade and occupy Taiwan within one or two years, and that there is international concern about whether the U.S. military will assist in Taiwan’s defense. Former legislator Shuai Huamin, who attended the meeting, said the U.S. military’s involvement is very low and that this is a very dangerous Time in the Taiwan Strait. He said now the biggest advantage of the Chinese Communist Party at sea is the East Wind anti-ship ballistic missiles, when the U.S. has the ability to counteract and protect the safety of aircraft carriers, the U.S. naval and air forces can only intervene.

The National Political Foundation’s National Security Group convener Lin Yu-fang believes that the question of whether the United States will intervene is itself a psychological warfare, now because the Chinese Communist Party is not sure that the United States will not really intervene, Taiwan can be safe and sound.

Ding Shufan: There are many ways for the United States to intervene

The company’s main goal is to provide a solution to the problem of the problem. He continued to say that even if the aircraft carrier is far away from Taiwan, it still has the meaning of intimidation.

Ding Shufan said: the United States in the end whether to send aircraft carriers, and how far away from Taiwan, I think this issue, the future approach to combat will not be the same as the Taiwan Strait conflict in 1995, 96, because the weapons in progress, the fight will be different. So maybe in 1995 or ’96 the U.S. might have sent aircraft carriers to the vicinity of Taiwan, but maybe in the next few years, the carriers might be farther away from Taiwan in order to have a deterrent effect, so we can’t use past experience to look at many things in the future.

As to whether the Chinese Communist Party can really occupy Taiwan within two years, Ding Shufan believes that next year is the 20th Communist Party Congress, and whether Xi Jinping will remain in office will form variables, so it is difficult to say in the short term. If Xi Jinping really wants to unify Taiwan in the future, he may use various means, such as cyber attacks, so Taiwan has to be prepared for many things, not just military aspects.

Lin Yu-fang: The Chinese Communist Party has begun to implement its war plan against Taiwan

During the symposium, Lin Yu-fang also mentioned that there is a real danger of war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait, and that in the mind of the Chinese Communist Party, after Macau and Hong Kong, Taiwan is a “territory” that must be recovered, and he bluntly said that the Chinese Communist Party has already started to implement its war plan against Taiwan, and that the probability of an accidental conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait itself should not be underestimated.

He mentioned that the number of Chinese military aircraft of all types present in Taiwan’s southwestern airspace in 2020 has reached 380, but from January 1 to February 23, 2021, it has reached 121.

The Chinese Communist Party has reached the highest level of conflict in the gray zone Yang Nianzu: consuming Taiwan

Shu Xiaohuang, associate researcher at the Institute for Defense and Security Studies, mentioned that the current actions of the Chinese Communist Party have reached the highest level of conflict in the gray zone, namely military and threatening actions. He believes that this zone will not necessarily result in war, but it may also be a preparatory action before the conflict.

According to former Defense Minister Yang Nianzu, the CCP is conducting a political, military and psychological war of attrition against Taiwan in such a way that it is depleting Taiwan’s capabilities and breaking down the morale of the people.

Yang Nianzu said: This war of attrition is invisible to us, and this aspect is very effective. So this gray area on our war of attrition, in fact, is to our national security caused by a large pressure and challenge.

He continued, hoping that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait restraint, do not want to cause military conflict because of the misunderstanding between the two sides.

The Ministry of National Defense has announced that it has sent 4,132 air combat patrols, and the air force has spent 4.1 billion NT dollars (US$147 million) on air lift costs, causing a mental and physical load on Taiwan’s pilots and ground crew.

Lin Yu-fang responds to Qiu Taizan: a swallow brings less than summer

In response to the recent statement by the new head of the Mainland Affairs Council, Qiu Taisan, that “cross-strait relations are blossoming in spring”, Lin Yu-fang described it as “a swallow that brings no summer”, saying that no solution can be found to the current cross-strait impasse, and that the 1992 Consensus is the reason why the two sides are not giving in to each other. If the English government recognizes the 1992 Consensus, the DPP will lose an “important issue that can be manipulated in every election”.

The company’s main goal is to provide a platform for the public to learn more about the company’s business. After Chairman Qiu Taisan finished his expectations for cross-strait relations, the spokesman of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office also spoke. I felt that they were having a dialogue in the air, but it was also like barging fire in the air. Both of them are circling around the 1992 Consensus, and they are tit-for-tat with no sign of compromise. So my feeling is that the day when the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are going to blossom in spring is a long way off. Because the possibility of reconciliation is very low, instead we have to worry that the possibility of armed conflict and war will become very high.

Former Defense Minister Yang Nianzu, former legislator Shuai Huanmin, military expert Qi Leyi, Associate Researcher Shu Hsiao-Huang of the Institute of Political and Military and Operational Concepts of the National Defense Security Research Institute, and Lin Yu-Fang, convener of the National Security Group of the National Political Foundation, were among those who attended Thursday’s meeting.

In addition, the U.S. 7th Fleet Command announced that the Burke-class USS McKeon (DDG-56) passed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday (24), local time, for the second time since President Biden came to Taiwan. The command said the action demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region.