When the Chinese Communist Party holds its two sessions of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in March, a major overhaul of Hong Kong‘s electoral system is inevitable. Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office Director Xia Baolong delivered his first speech since he took office in February last year at the National Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Research Conference on February 22, in addition to drawing a new red line on “patriots ruling Hong Kong,” focusing on the need to “improve” the election system in Hong Kong under the “leadership of the central government. “Hong Kong’s electoral system, in order to block the chaos of Hong Kong to enter the Bureau. Liu Zhaojia, vice president of the National Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies, interpreted after the meeting, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) will directly formulate new legislation on Hong Kong elections, to be implemented in the next three-tier elections in Hong Kong (Chief Executive, Legislative Council, District Councils), meaning that the Basic Law and the NPC’s “five-step” constitutional reform set in 2004 will be directly overturned, turning into the NPC’s arbitrary “One step”. On the same day, British Foreign Secretary Lan Tao Wen spoke out at the United Nations Human Rights Council, saying that the rights of Hong Kong people were being violated and demanding that free and fair Legislative Council elections be held in Hong Kong.
According to Hong Kong media, the National Association for the Study of Hong Kong and Macau held a seminar on 22nd in the form of video, and Xia Baolong emphasized in his speech that people in important positions in Hong Kong and shouldering the responsibility of governance must be firm “patriots”, and delineated three major criteria for patriots and eleven types of behavior for those who are not patriotic. The late Chinese Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping said that Hong Kong people must be patriotic but not necessarily love the Chinese Communist Party, now also overturned by Xia Baolong, stressed that they must not oppose the Chinese Communist Party.
Xia Baolong said the urgent need to change the two elections next year
After drawing a “red line” for political participation, Xia Baolong stressed that the current “most critical and urgent” is to improve Hong Kong’s electoral system, and must be led by the central government to carry out; and system changes “must not” simply copy or apply the foreign electoral system. He also stressed that the heads of the executive, legislative, judicial and important statutory bodies must not be occupied by those who oppose China and disrupt Hong Kong under any circumstances.
Tian Feilong, an associate professor at the Law School of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, said that according to Xia Baolong’s speech, “patriots ruling Hong Kong” must be implemented in the CE Election Committee, the Legislative Council election and next year’s CE election later this year.
Five steps to scrap political reform after Pan-democrats’ victory in Hong Kong and Macau system reshuffle today
After the outbreak of the anti-China movement in 2019, the democratic camp in Hong Kong won an unprecedented victory in the District Council election in November. At that Time, it was widely rumored that the Liaison Office had misjudged the situation of the District Council election, thinking that even if they lost seats, they would not lose more than half of the District Councils in Hong Kong, which alarmed the top management in Beijing. In January of the following year, Wang Zhimin, the then director of the Liaison Office, was suddenly replaced by Luo Huining at the age of 62 by the State Council. Xia Baolong took over the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office in February, and is the permanent deputy head of the Hong Kong and Macao Working Group.
Liu Zhaojia, vice president of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Council, told the Hong Kong media after the meeting on the 22nd that Xia Baolong’s statement reflects the Central Government’s determination to take the lead in deciding the reform of Hong Kong’s electoral system in the future, with the goal of making all political institutions in Hong Kong dominated by “patriots”. He believes that during the two sessions in Beijing in March, the relevant guidelines on patriots ruling Hong Kong will be introduced. It is estimated that the next Legislative Council election, the Chief Executive Election Committee election and the District Council election will implement the new election method.
The original “five steps” of Hong Kong’s political reform, one of which is to be passed by all members of the Legislative Council in two-thirds. However, Lau Siu-kai, on the grounds that there are not enough Members of the democratic camp in the Legislative Council after the DQ and the general resignation, argued that there are not enough people to pass the political reform package, and the Central Government may also think that it is difficult to create a consensus in Hong Kong, coupled with the time constraints, it is likely that the “five-step” will become a “one-step “, that is, the Central Authorities through the NPC Standing Committee to develop Hong Kong’s electoral methods to amend the program, “and quite specific”, and then the SAR Government to implement. He added that the current reliance on the RO to review the eligibility of candidates may not be appropriate, it is believed that the Central Government may introduce a more authoritative and high-level mechanism to vet the candidates.
According to the Basic Law and the NPCSC’s Interpretation of the Second Interpretation of the Basic Law in 2004, amendments to the methods for selecting the Chief Executive and for forming the Legislative Council must go through a “five-step constitutional reform process”: (1) the Chief Executive shall submit a report to the NPCSC; (2) the NPCSC shall decide to amend the electoral methods; (3) the SAR Government shall submit a proposal to the Legislative Council and shall be subject to the approval of the Legislative Council. (2) the NPCSC will decide to amend the electoral methods; (3) the SAR government will put forward a proposal to the Legislative Council and have it passed by a two-thirds majority of all Legislative Council members; (4) the Chief Executive will agree to the bill passed by the Legislative Council; (5) finally, the Chief Executive will report the bill to the NPCSC for approval or record.
Forcing the “Party of Love” to drive out the pan-democratic representatives to discuss the big retrogression of the political system
In a radio interview, Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science and Administration at Chinese University of Hong Kong, analyzed that Xia Baolong mentioned that the central government must take the lead in improving the electoral system, which means the NPC Standing Committee may take direct action, and the process is similar to the formulation of the “National Security Law of Hong Kong”. By then, I believe the NPC Standing Committee will be adopted by the program, the SAR Government will be completed as soon as possible, the relevant electoral legislation and the eligibility to stand for election amendments.
Cai Ziqiang also pointed out that Xia Baolong’s speech has made it clear that “non-patriots” can not participate in the governance structure and elections in Hong Kong, including the “black violence”, “wrangling” and The “Hong Kong independence” element. However, there are still many unknowns about the definition, including whether traditional moderate democrats, dissidents and the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HKASPDMC) can participate in the election. The Central Government has not made a clear definition, but wants to explain again in light of the situation in Hong Kong and the international situation.
Apple Daily quoted democrats as saying that although Xia Baolong and others have not ruled out the possibility of the middle, moderate democrats or the opposition to run, but Xia Baolong’s position on patriots ruling Hong Kong is tighter than Deng Xiaoping’s, “not only to love the country, but also to love the party,” and this red line is interpreted in Beijing, even if you run today, you can also run tomorrow! “Therefore, I believe that no matter what position the democrats are afraid that they can no longer enter the establishment, and Hong Kong’s representative government is in full regression.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam responded that the issue of the political system is a matter for the central government, not part of the SAR’s high degree of autonomy, and therefore will fully cooperate. As to whether the so-called “reform” will be completed in time for the new Legislative Council elections scheduled for September, Lam said she believes the Central Government will consider the urgency of the Legislative Council elections. Hong Kong’s pro-establishment political parties have issued scripts and should after Xia Baolong’s announcement, touting Xia’s words is to fix the loopholes in the electoral system, will firmly support the “patriots ruling Hong Kong” system, and so on.
British foreign minister urges Hong Kong government to ensure fair and free elections
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab spoke on human rights issues in Hong Kong and Xinjiang at a high-level meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Council on Monday (22), according to The Standpoint News. Reuters reported that Mr. Raab said Hong Kong people’s rights and freedoms are “systematically violated” and that the Chinese Communist Party’s implementation of the “Hong Kong Area State Security Law” has curtailed Hong Kong people’s freedoms. The British side demanded that the Hong Kong authorities hold free and fair Legislative Council elections.
Taiwan‘s Mainland Affairs Council criticized on the 22nd that Beijing’s unilateral change in the rules of the game will not win the hearts of the people and is detrimental to Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center. The British civil society organization Hong Kong Watch condemned Beijing’s dismantling of Hong Kong’s unique characteristics, and its political reform will permanently shut down the democratic camp, calling on Lantao Wen to take action in response.
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