In several pandemics throughout history, often when people let their guard down, the plague struck like a tsunami, catching them off guard.
The Great Plague of London: It came and went out of nowhere
One night in March 1832, when people were partying in the ballrooms of Paris, France, the German poet Heine, who was in Paris, witnessed this tragic moment: “On March 29, when cholera was announced in Paris, many people were not impressed. They sneered at the fearful of the disease and paid even less heed to the appearance of cholera.”
“Suddenly, in the middle of a dance floor, one of the most amusing clowns fell down on his legs. After he removed his mask, people were surprised to find that his face had turned blue. The laughter died down. Carriages quickly took the revelers from the dance floor to the hospital, but soon they collapsed in a row, still wearing the costumes they had worn during the revelry ……”
The sudden onset of the plague, which hit like a tsunami, caught them unawares.
The Epidemic appeared in London a year ago, but at first it did not attract much attention. Initially, the British misjudged cholera as the preserve of the poor.
The Industrial Revolution in England at the end of the 18th century brought prosperity to all of Europe, and people reveled in the wonders and untold wealth that industrialization had brought. As the “Black Death” had occurred in Europe, the English government published the plague law for the first Time in history as early as 1518, and gradually improved it over the next few years, forbidding those infected with the disease to go out or be sentenced to felony or even death. The plague laws were refined over the years.
However, the prosperity of the Industrial Revolution and the strict epidemic prevention regulations did not stop the epidemic, and in 1831, a cholera epidemic broke out in London, and it soon became clear that cholera did not target the poor. People moved urgently from the city to the countryside to escape the epidemic, but it became as scary as the city and there was no place to hide.
When the cholera epidemic spread to Europe, it also took the Life of German philosopher Friedrich Hegel in Berlin, Germany, in 1831. However, the mysterious Great Plague of London suddenly stopped and disappeared in 1832.
It was once questioned whether the shipping and transportation brought about by the industrial revolution of the 18th century made it easier for the virus to spread. However, if we look back at the Roman pandemic in the 6th century AD, we can see that such an argument is not debunked. At that time, both the East and the West were feudal societies, and there were no new forms of shipping, yet the pandemic could spread to a wide area in a short time.
Spanish influenza: the second wave of the autumn epidemic was more violent
At the beginning of the 20th century, a Spanish Flu, known as the “mother of all pandemics”, swept the world. According to the World health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Spanish Flu killed 40 to 50 million people worldwide between 1918 and 1920. And many scientists and historians believe that one-third of the world’s population (about 1.8 billion people) was infected with the virus at that time.
In March 1918, before the end of World War I, a virus began spreading along the coastline. Spain was the first to be hit by it, and it was here that it earned its romantic name: “Spanish Girl”. Although spring was a high season for influenza, the patients recovered quickly and the mortality rate was no higher than usual. World War I dominated the global headlines at the time, and the flu seemed to be history.
In the fall, however, everything changed. The previously uncommon virus reappeared in the form of a highly virulent strain that ravaged North America and Europe.
Patients often died within hours or days. Within four months, the Spanish flu spread around the world, spreading to even the most remote communities. By the time the epidemic subsided the following spring, an estimated 50 million to 100 million people had died.
In general, the worldwide influenza death curve was U-shaped, with children, the elderly and people with weak resistance occupying the peak of death. 1918 Spanish pandemic influenza, however, had a unique W-shaped death curve, i.e., in addition to children and the elderly, there was a special peak population of death: young adults aged about 20 to 40 years old, occupying 50% of the entire pandemic death toll. Presumably, those younger than 65 years of age who became ill and died accounted for 99% of the total number of deaths.
By March 1919, the epidemic suddenly disappeared. The death toll from the Spanish pandemic, which came and went in a hurry and stopped suddenly, was enormous and frightening.
Scientists warn: “It will sweep in like a tsunami”
The Communist virus epidemic that lasted for more than a year has further spread around the world after its mutation. Data shows that more than 100 million people have been infected and more than 2.14 million have died worldwide. Even more frightening is that the UK variant of the virus is spreading at a rate 70 percent higher than the old virus.
According to the Washington Post on January 22, Danish scientists recently said that a variant of the Chinese communist virus (coronavirus), first discovered in the United Kingdom, is spreading at an alarming rate, and existing methods of slowing the spread of the epidemic have no effect on this virus.
Danish scientist Klaus believes that the Variant virus is spreading at an alarming rate and that the outbreak will be even greater by early April. “It’s a bit like a tsunami for a while, like you’re standing on a beach and suddenly you see all the water retracting and then the tsunami sweeps back in, overwhelming.”
Cases of the variant virus, despite strict containment measures, are reported to be increasing in Denmark at a rate of 70 percent per week. Danish authorities expect the variant virus to become the dominant strain of the virus in the country by mid-February.
In an article, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen described the alarming rate of spread of the variant virus, “Imagine sitting on the top floor of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer stadium with a capacity of 38,000 people. Fill it up with water from a tap drip, one drop in the first minute, two in the second and four in the third.”
At this rate (of exponential growth), Frederickson said, it would fill the stadium in 44 minutes. But for the first 42 minutes, the stadium was almost empty. “The point is, by the time you realize the water level is rising, it’s too late.”
Evidence suggests that the variant Chinese Communist virus, which has spread in more than 70 countries, may be more deadly than the old virus, in addition to spreading more quickly. Patrick Vallance, the British government’s chief scientific adviser, said the Kent variant is now known to spread faster than the old virus and is not ethnic-specific, “infecting people of all ages.”
A recent report by Chinese researchers published in the journal Disease Surveillance cautions that the epidemic will hit even harder in 2021, with at least 3 million more people expected to die by early March. A worse-case scenario is a global death total of 5 million.
This could cause a collapse of the global health system, meaning that as the virus mutates, variants could hide in the population and strike every season, said a commentary by a scholar at the Shanghai Institute of Pasteur Studies of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
In this scenario, the researchers argue that the Chinese model of preventing the epidemic, with its massive city closures, testing and strict health restrictions to stop the spread of the disease, will not help.
Don’t be fooled by the “anti-epidemic” myth
While the world still does not have a clear understanding of the virus, the Chinese Communist Party has been projecting an image of success in fighting the epidemic, believing that it has established a complete and mature system to fight the epidemic. Some experts confidently say that “detection is the inflection point”, and believe that as long as patients are found, the epidemic can be quickly brought under control by means of big data search of the transmission chain, full quarantine and full testing. Shanghai was even held up as a superior student in the fight against the epidemic – patients were found proactively in fever clinics spread throughout the city, rather than passively after the infection had opened.
The virus is invisible and untouchable, and in fact precise prevention and control can only be done for cases that have already occurred, while the pervasiveness of the virus is breaking the established Perception. Previously, experts believed that the domestic epidemic was under control and that the source of the disease was mainly from outside the country and the frozen seafood chain, but the epidemic in Hebei and Heilongjiang did spread from the countryside, and this alone broke the original perception. Where is the source of transmission in Hebei?
What is even more disturbing is that recently, Shijiazhuang in Hebei was detected with new cases after zero confirmed cases, and no one answered the netizens’ questions about why new confirmed cases emerged from the airtight quarantine. Is it a coincidence that while people are celebrating the effectiveness of big data and overall isolation, and hailing the epidemic under control, there are always new surprises? Is this a coincidence? Or is it a mysterious arrangement that reminds the world not to be confused by the “anti-epidemic” myth?
In fact, people’s knowledge of viruses is very limited, and their existing knowledge and experience is only a little skin deep. From historical experience alone, pandemics often come suddenly, and what would happen if there were multiple, concentrated outbreaks over a large area? What would it be like if there were multiple, concentrated outbreaks? Would it be possible to conceal it by then? Under the propaganda of the Chinese Communist Party’s success in fighting the epidemic, people have become numb to the fact that there are many possibilities that we do not know about. Only more reverence and introspection can make us more conscious.
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