Where is Hong Kong as Britain heads for the end of the tunnel?

Since the end of last month, Hong Kong people can apply for a BNO passport (British National (Overseas) visa) to stay in the UK. Most of the politicians in Beijing accuse those who leave of asking for trouble because of the serious Epidemic and the economic downturn in the UK, but if the decision to stay or go is based on the facts of the epidemic and employment, leaving is actually a sensible choice.

It is true that the UK economy is in the doldrums and the number of unemployed is 1.7 million, an increase of more than 400,000 compared to a year ago, which is not ideal. However, in percentage terms, the unemployment rate is 5%, up 1.2% compared to a year ago, but compared to Hong Kong, still much better. Although the number of unemployed people in Hong Kong is less than 250,000, the unemployment rate is 6.6%, which is twice as high as a year ago, reflecting that Hong Kong’s economy is much more seriously affected by the epidemic than the UK’s. The reason is that Hong Kong’s rent is difficult to bear, coupled with the frequent mistakes of the government’s epidemic prevention policy and insufficient measures to assist small businesses, so the epidemic and the economy are both in a mess.

At the same Time, although the number of job vacancies in the UK has decreased by more than 200,000 compared to the same period last year, there are still nearly 600,000 jobs (578,000), which is one-third of the unemployed population. On the contrary, in Hong Kong, job vacancies have dropped significantly compared to a year ago, with professional, business, retail and import/export industries reducing by more than 40%, and recreational and cultural services industries reducing by about 65%, resulting in a total number of vacancies and unemployment of only about 15%. Undoubtedly, Hong Kong people will need to find new jobs in the UK, but regardless of the level of jobs, the UK’s current employment prospects are indeed better than Hong Kong.

Of course, the economic outlook depends on who can get out of the epidemic faster, and the UK is gradually on the road to recovery. The UK was initially ineffective in fighting the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases was staggering, reaching more than 3.8 million, half of Hong Kong’s population, seriously impacting the health care system. The epidemic is out of control, the British medical authorities put their hopes on the vaccine, and last April they searched around for vaccines to ensure a stable supply, and set priorities for vaccination, and by mid-December last year, the universal vaccination program was launched.

So far, the UK has vaccinated nearly 15% of the population, by mid-February, the first seven high-risk groups for a total of 14.6 million people vaccinated, and then by the end of April, all people over 50 years of age and groups with health problems over 16 years of age can also be vaccinated, and then it will be the turn of the remaining adult population over 16 years of age, a total of about 21 million. If everything goes as planned, by mid-year, when 80% of adults are vaccinated, the UK will finally see the light at the end of the epidemic’s darkness.

Looking at Hong Kong, vaccination has lagged far behind other developed regions from the start. While more than fifty countries around the world began administering the vaccine, the first batch booked in Hong Kong did not arrive until the end of February. At the same time, the government is at a loss as to what to do about the supply and demand of vaccines, and when the epidemic is not cleared, it is a long way off as to when Hong Kong’s economy will recover.

The supply side is in doubt. The domestic Kexing vaccine has been ordered about 50% of the effectiveness, I believe it has to be shelved, but to add other vaccines, it is a lot of restrictions. For example, another national vaccine is still waiting for the Phase III trial data, so far it cannot be used, while the original order of Fosun and BioNTech vaccine, recently there are new changes. As AstraZeneca can only supply 30% of the original vaccine quantity to the EU, in order to make up for the shortage, the BioNTech vaccine produced in Europe may reduce the number of export sales. The first batch of vaccine scheduled to arrive in Hong Kong at the end of February may be on schedule, but it is uncertain whether the remaining batches can continue to be supplied.

Likewise, even if AstraZeneca increases production, it must first fulfill its commitment to the EU, and there is no guarantee that it will be able to supply 7.5 million doses to Hong Kong in batches starting in the middle of the year. In addition, the SAR government has imposed self-imposed restrictions on the purchase of vaccines, which is limited to products from Europe and mainland China, without mentioning the four vaccines developed by the four U.S. pharmaceutical companies, thus greatly reducing the sources of vaccine supply.

It is very paradoxical that the problem of insufficient supply of vaccines has turned into weak demand at any time, especially when the domestic vaccines with insufficient test data are used indiscriminately. According to the survey results released by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong at the end of January, the number of respondents willing to receive vaccination plummeted from over 60% (63.2%) in November last year to about 45.6% (45.5%) in mid-January, and the acceptance level of AstraZeneca vaccine (35.3%) and Coxin vaccine (36.7%) was particularly low, while the acceptance level of Coxin vaccine among young people (18-39 years old) and those with higher Education (secondary school or above) was even lower than that of Coxin vaccine. The acceptance rate of the vaccine among young people (18-39 years old) and those with higher education (secondary school or above) was even lower, at 20%.

If the vaccination rate is even less than 40%, Hong Kong people will have to fend for themselves and continue to fight against the epidemic, while the government will continue to be unafraid of disturbing the people, such as moths fighting against the fire, enclosing the community, quarantining frequently, and chasing the impossible task of eliminating the disease. Faced with the social and economic uncertainty caused by the SAR government’s incompetent governance, what is so hard to understand about Hong Kong people defecting to the UK?