Burma’s democratically elected government was attacked by a coup d’état by the military on January 1, which resulted in the arrest of senior state minister Aung San Suu Kyi and other government leaders, leaving the army commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing in power, bringing Burma back into the era of military government. The arrests may be a move by Min Aung Hlaing, who is at the age of retirement, to consolidate his power, and will also put U.S. President Joe Biden to the test, given his friendly relations with the Chinese government.
Although the Burmese military surrendered power in 2015 to allow for national elections, it still enjoys 25 percent of parliamentary seats and has the right to consent to constitutional amendments and appointments of key officials in defense, Home affairs and border affairs. Kim Jolliffe, who specializes in the relationship between Burma’s citizens and military, said the coup may reflect the internal dynamics of the military, and that Min Aung Hlaing, who was due to retire at the end of this year, is consolidating his power through the coup.
According to Reuters, Min Aung Hlaing took over the military in 2011 as the country entered a period of democratic transition, and after Aung San Suu Kyi took power in 2016, he transformed from a silent soldier to an active political figure, using Facebook to promote his activities, call on prominent figures and visit monasteries; after the Rohingya brutalization by the Myanmar military in 2017 came to light, Min Aung Hlaing and other military top brass Min Aung Hlaing and other top military officials were named and sanctioned by the U.K. and other countries after the Rohingya brutalization in 2017, and his Facebook account was suspended as a result.
Myanmar diplomats and observers say Min Aung Hlaing has never disclosed his intention to give up his military seat in parliament or to stop blocking Aung San Suu Kyi’s ascension to the presidency. Herve Lemahieu, a Myanmar expert at the Australian think tank Roy Institute for International Policy, noted that Min Aung Hlaing has always hinted that he would like to enter politics as a citizen after retiring from the military, which would require the support of pro-military parties, but last November’s election was held by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). The NLD has won the election last November, making him realize that he may not be able to take power through the election.
Bloomberg further analyzed that Min Aung Hlaing had a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last month, when Wang called China a “brother” of Myanmar, showing respect for Min Aung Hlaing. With Min Aung Hlaing now in power, it will be a major test for U.S. President Joe Biden, who is anxious to revive the U.S.-led Western model of democracy at a Time when China is using its state power to promote the Chinese authoritarian model, while Myanmar is once again ruled by a military government, meaning that the U.S. and other Western countries may no longer be able to establish a political model in Southeast Asia through moral authority, political and economic means.
Avinash Paliwal, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, believes that China’s acquiescence and ambivalence toward Myanmar’s political response may also have contributed to the coup, and warns that the peace process in Myanmar is likely to come to a complete end and that the peace agreement reached earlier in the civil war may also collapse.
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