The New Guinea virus Epidemic has kept people at Home, with predictions of a new wave of babies. However, according to published data from some regions, the epidemic has made people “calm down” and the birth rate has fallen instead. Here is a diagram.
People are staying at home during the new crown epidemic, and it was thought that this might lead to a baby boom, however, judging from the latest data, the answer to this is no.
Yicai.com reported that the newborn figures released in Guangzhou and Wenzhou in 2020 showed a significant decline. Among them, Wenzhou City’s birth population has reached another record low in the past six years, with data showing that the number of live births in 58 midwifery institutions in the Wenzhou area in 2020 was 73,230, a decrease of 19.01% compared to the same period in 2019; Guangzhou fell back to 195,500 in 2020, down nearly 100,000 from 2017, reaching the lowest level in the past 10 years.
Dong Yuzheng, director of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Population Development, said that an important reason for the decrease in births is the decrease in women of childbearing age, “the effect of the current comprehensive two-child policy is no longer a question of weakening, but rather quite weak. Dong Yuzheng said, the number of marriages fell fast in the past few years, the number of women of childbearing age decreased significantly, the number of eligible and able to become mothers decreased, so the number of births must be reduced.
In addition, although people spent more Time at home during the epidemic and couples had more opportunities to interact with each other, the multiple uncertainties brought about during the epidemic also had a negative impact on fertility.
During the epidemic, school was not in session, children were at home every day and had to attend online classes, which put more pressure on young Parents. With one child, it’s hard to keep up with two children. This also makes some people worry about the future burden,” Dong Yuzheng said, adding that the burden is economic on the one hand, and energy and time on the other.
During the epidemic, some people feel more financial pressure as their income drops or their jobs are not secure, Dong Yuzheng said. On the other hand, special times bring some restrictions on Life. For example, during the epidemic, some people find it troublesome to go to the hospital for checkups, taking body temperature everywhere and even asking for nucleic acid tests.
Professor Ye Qing of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law analyzed that the number of births will definitely drop in 2020 because during the epidemic, there are many uncertainties, including when will the epidemic end and when can we go to the hospital for checkups? So the epidemic will not have a positive impact on fertility, and there is a negative impact.
In addition to the epidemic, the fertility rate has declined in recent years, as well as factors such as the heavy economic burden, childcare pressure and intense economy brought about by the urbanization process.
Dong Yucheng said that the fertility rate in large cities where the population is concentrated is instead falling faster. On the one hand, the sense of time urgency is becoming more and more prominent; on the other hand, the space for survival is getting narrower and more competitive work pressure is increasing, leading to a gradual weakening of young people’s willingness to have children in terms of time allocation and energy support.
The more modernized areas are, the more the fertility rate declines; the more individual freedom is, the more the willingness to have children fades,” said Dong Yucheng.
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