Danish scientists say a variant of the coronavirus first discovered in the United Kingdom is spreading at an alarming rate and that existing methods to slow the spread of the outbreak are ineffective, according to foreign media reports.
The State Serum Institute is a Danish government agency that tracks disease and advises on health policy. Cases of the variant are said to be increasing in Denmark at a rate of 70 percent per week, despite a strict ban.
The institute’s director, Tyra Grove Krause, last week began sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By comparison, the U.S. currently ranks 43rd in the world with only 0.3 percent of cases infected with the new variant.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested for the first Time on Friday that the variant could be more deadly than the original virus. Because it can spread more easily, it can quickly overwhelm the medical system.
Danish public health officials say they would now have a false sense of confidence if not for extensive surveillance of the spread of the virus. That’s because the number of new coronavirus cases diagnosed each day in Denmark has been declining for a month. The British variant has spread so rapidly that Danish authorities expect it to become the dominant strain of the virus in the country by mid-February.
That would put Denmark ahead of the outbreak in the U.S. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Friday that a variant of the British virus known as B.1.1.7 could break out in the U.S. in March.
Danish officials say daily cases of the coronavirus could quadruple by early April. Charts from the Public Health Institute predict a spike in cases in the most severe transmission scenario, even with strict enforcement of a lockdown. The hope is that the Variant virus is less contagious than thought so that Denmark can bring the number of cases down further and the outbreak can be further contained while vaccinations are administered.
“It’s kind of like a tsunami for a while, like you’re standing on a beach and all of a sudden you see all the water retracting,” Krauss said. “Then the tsunami sweeps back in and is overwhelming.”
Danish leaders have tried to explain to their citizens why they still need to keep the lockdown in place, as the overall indicators are enough to suggest the country should have started reopening weeks ago.
In a lengthy post this month, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting on the top floor of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a 38,000-capacity soccer stadium. Fill it up with water dripping from a tap, one drop in the first minute, two in the second and four in the third. At this (exponential growth) rate, Frederickson said, it would fill the stadium in 44 minutes. But for the first 42 minutes, the stadium was almost empty. The point, she wrote, “is that by the time you realize the water level has risen, it’s too late.”
Frederiksen attended a virtual summit Thursday to urge the European Medicines Agency, which has approved vaccines in 27 countries, to speed up the process. AstraZeneca’s vaccine (which is already licensed in the U.K.) is being reviewed for possible launch in mid-February. AstraZeneca warned the European Union on Friday it would not be able to deliver the doses expected in the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, Copenhagen’s once-busy bike paths have gone quiet as people work from Home. Many stores are closed. Preschools are one of the few areas that are open.
“It was a strange silence before the war started,” says Michael Dahl, chief medical officer at Odense University Hospital, the largest hospital in southern Denmark.
His hospital is opening a new coronavirus ward and is confident there will be enough beds even with a surge in patient numbers.
But he worries that infections among staff and their families could overwhelm his preparations.
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