According to a preliminary study, the new strain of the Chinese communist virus (Wuhan pneumonia) emerging in the United Kingdom is spreading more than 50% faster than the existing strain, and by mid-January next year, 9 out of 10 cases in southeastern England could be infected with the variant.
The study, entitled “Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England,” was conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) using mathematical models to predict the spread of the new strain in the southeast of England.
Study author Nick Davies, PhD, said, “We estimate that the transmission rate of this variant is 50 to 74 percent higher than that of the existing variant.”
Although the study “has no clear evidence that it [the variant] causes higher hospitalization or mortality rates,” it concluded that higher transmission rates could eventually push up the number of cases and drive hospitalizations and deaths beyond 2020 levels.
“In the absence of effective control policies, (variola) is expected to surge rapidly and the burden could be greater in the first 6 months of 2021 than in 2020.” Davis tweeted, “If current trends continue, new variants could account for 90% of cases by mid-January.”
The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, analyzed data from London, the southeast and east of England. Earlier this week, many scientists argued that there is no evidence yet that the vaccine is ineffective against the new strain.
“There is little change in the way the virus is transmitted.”
Jonathan Stoye of the Francis Crick Institute said, “The new variant has caused a much greater response than the D614G mutation that appeared a few months ago, and has clearly shown that the virus has increased its growth rate. ” “Perhaps this increased response reflects the growing anxiety about the spread of the virus. In reality, there has been little change in the way the virus spreads from person to person.”
The emergence of the new variant in the UK has led to calls for the government to change its strategy for rolling out the vaccine to only one of the two doses per person. Doing so has reduced a person’s protection against the virus by a small amount, but has generally helped control the spread of the virus.
The British government said Wednesday (Dec. 23) that two cases of another variant of the virus from South Africa had been detected and announced a ban on flights to and from South Africa, while passengers who recently arrived in the U.K. from South Africa must now be quarantined. In addition, from Boxing Day, the UK will further extend the lockdown, with some 24 million people in the southeast expected to be on lockdown and all but essential stores, including gyms, barbershops and pubs, closed.
There is limited official information on the new variant of the strain in the U.K., but scientists say the new strain is threatening to drive up infection rates in South Africa or be more severe than the first wave of the outbreak. The British government has previously said the mutant strain is 70 percent more transmissible than other spreading strains.
Dr. Andrew Preston of the University of Bath said both the South African and British variants contain an unusually high number of mutations compared to other SARS-CoV-2 lineage strains. “Some of these mutations alter the S protein, which is of interest. Both contain the N501Y mutation, but so do many other mutations that do not appear to increase transmission, so the picture is complex.”
The UK is a world leader in identifying different strains of the virus, and Preston speculates that other, more transmissible strains of the virus may have spread in other countries without being detected.
“The UK has used genomics throughout the pandemic, so is well positioned to identify new variants early in their emergence.” Preston said, “In other countries where this capability is not available, it is likely that these variants are already in circulation but have not yet been detected. It appears that we are entering a particularly dangerous phase of this epidemic, making the rollout of the vaccine even more urgent.”
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