With less than two weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, Trump is trailing his opponent Biden in the polls in six key swing states, and analysts estimate that a Trump-Hillary showdown is likely to take place as it did four years ago.
Currently, Biden is leading in polls in all six of the big swing states, but Trump is trailing by a smaller margin than he was in the same period four years ago when he faced off against Hillary.
According to the nonpartisan RealClearPolitics, Trump, who was trailing in the pre-election polls four years ago, beat Hillary by winning a majority of the electoral votes in six swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. To enter the White House, one must obtain half of the 270 electoral votes, with the six swing states accounting for 101. Either Trump or Biden would need to take at least three of these states in order to hold the majority of electoral votes, according to the report.
The Real Clear Politics website combined polling data from various polls: As of the 20th, Biden and Trump’s average approval ratings in the six swing states were 49.1% and 45.2%, respectively, a difference of 3.9 percentage points. Among them, Biden leads by 1 point in Florida, 2.4 and 3.1 points in North Carolina and Arizona respectively, 3.8 points in Pennsylvania, and 6.2 and 7.1 points in Wisconsin and Michigan respectively.
However, four years ago, two weeks before voting day, Trump was 4.4 percentage points behind Hillary in the polls in these six states, which is even larger than this year’s backward margin, but in the end, the six states were all-eaten, which means that even if Biden is leading in the polls nationwide and in swing states, it is still hard to say who will win the election until the last minute.
In addition to these six states, analysts see Ohio as one of the key swing states. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump’s support in Ohio is 0.2 percentage points ahead of Baiden, and the race is in Trump’s favor to win the state’s 18 electoral votes again, as he did four years ago.
In addition, The New York Times and Sheena College announced on the 20th that Trump and Biden are tied at 45% in the 16 electoral votes of Georgia, which is a particularly close race.
According to the latest survey results released by IBD/TIPP, which is known as the most accurate polling in the United States, Biden, who had a steady lead after his son Hunter’s “hard drivegate” incident, dropped to 48.1% in national polls, while Trump rose to 45.8%, leaving only a 2.3% gap between the two sides.
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