Next year will be the year of the change of the top of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and there will be a lot of attention on how the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee will change. In an article published today (May 20), Hong Kong media analyzed the hot and dark horses in the top 20 personnel adjustments.
The current Politburo of the CPC has 25 members, including seven members of the Standing Committee. According to the Chinese Communist Party’s practice, there is a so-called “seven up and eight down” rule for the change of the top of the Communist Party, that is, 67 years old can go up, 68 years old must go down. Since the 16th CPC Congress held in 2002, no Politburo member or Politburo Standing Committee member has been re-elected or re-elected in the year they turned 68 years old. According to this standard, next year, the 20th Congress of the CPC, in addition to Xi Jinping, the current 24 members of the Politburo, need to replace 11 people, including the Standing Committee of Li Zhanshu, Han Zheng two need to step down.
But the Hong Kong media “Ming Pao” recently analyzed that, after Xi Jinping came to power, many personnel rules were broken, to age line of hard indicators may also no longer exist. The only criterion for personnel arrangements is Xi Jinping’s trust.
The newspaper’s article today analyzed that, in general, the Politburo Standing Committee is mostly produced in the members, the current bureau committee, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua’s qualifications, age and past political achievements are among the best, as Premier Li Keqiang has been re-elected for two terms, Hu is considered the next premier favorite.
The top candidates for the permanent post include Chongqing Secretary Chen Miner, Central Office Director Ding Xuexiang and Shanghai Secretary Li Qiang. All three are close associates of Xi Jinping. Li Qiang is also likely to take over as premier, while Ding is considered likely to take over the party’s personnel.
Among the remaining senior bureau members, Beijing Secretary Cai Qi is a hardcore member of Xi’s “Min system” and “Zhijiang New Army”, while Xinjiang Secretary Chen Quanguo has made “great achievements” for the CCP by working to suppress Tibetans and Xinjiang Uighurs. “The two will also be entrusted with important responsibilities, but Chen’s health condition is subject to change.
The article argues that the positions of those who cannot join or stay in the bureau committee will also see major changes. The leadership of the State Council will be a big change, the local officials in the bureau will be in Beijing to serve, Li Xi, Li Hongzhong and the head of the Development and Reform Commission, such as He Lifeng, are popular candidates for Vice Premier. The new heads of various party departments such as the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, the Central Organization Department, the United Front Work Department, the Central Office, the Central Finance Office and the Chinese and Foreign Affairs Office may also be mostly outsiders parachuted in.
It is possible that the hot candidates for this new entry, in addition to He Lifeng, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing four municipalities and the current second in command of Guangdong Province, including Beijing Mayor Chen Jining, Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng, Tianjin Mayor Liao Guoxun, Chongqing Mayor Tang Liangzhi, Guangdong Governor Ma Xingrui, all have the natural advantage of a smooth entry.
The former Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong was originally the next candidate for Shanghai secretary, but was transferred to Hubei as secretary when the epidemic broke out last year, the article argues, he also did not miss the opportunity to join the bureau.
In addition, the article analyzes that the authorities are now placing great emphasis on science and technology innovation, so more officials from the education system and the military aerospace system will enter the Politburo. In addition to Ma Xingrui, the governor of Guangdong province, who comes from the aerospace system, and Chen Jining, the mayor of Beijing, who was the president of Tsinghua University, Yuan Jiajun, the secretary of Zhejiang province, Xu Dazhe, the secretary of Hunan province, who comes from the aerospace system, and Zhang Guoqing, the secretary of Liaoning province, who was the general manager of the Armament Industry Group, are all possible candidates for the position.
Some analysts say that the change of the top of the Chinese Communist Party is often a time of intense struggle between various factions. If the internal struggle intensifies, the possibility of a major incident before the 20th National Congress cannot be ruled out.
Recent Comments