Taiwan’s new crown epidemic is heating up rapidly, with the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan approaching 1,000 in just a few days. However, because of the lack of testing capacity, the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan on Tuesday (May 18) has dropped from a peak of more than 300 cases in a single day to 240 cases, but it is still impossible to say whether the epidemic has slowed down. Experts say that the level of prevention shown by the people of Taiwan is still generally high, and if a large number of tests can be conducted in the next 10 days to identify infected people and stop the chain of transmission, it should not go on the Wuhan-style “rigid city closure”. Once the city is closed, Taiwan will pay a very high economic price, and this year’s economic growth rate will be difficult to keep five (5%).
Taiwan has been a global performer in epidemic prevention, with a record of 252 days of zero confirmed local cases. However, since the breakthrough of cross-infection between the crew of China Airlines and the staff of the anti-epidemic hotel in late April, the British variant of the strain (B117) has been waiting for an opportunity to invade, expanding from a single cluster infection in the Wanhua area of Taipei City to a multi-point community infection in nine counties and cities across Taiwan, with the hardest hit areas especially concentrated in the two major cities of Taipei City and New Taipei City (referred to as Shuangbei).
According to the latest statistics from the Central Epidemic Command Center, the number of new local confirmed cases in Taiwan on Tuesday (May 18) was 240, slightly lower than the previous day’s single-day high of 333 cases, but there were two deaths. The total number of confirmed cases has accumulated to 2,260 since February last year, including 1,121 local cases, 90% of which were outbreaks in the last week. Although the source of many of the infections is unknown, the genetic sequencing of the viruses all belong to the British variant of the virus, which is “highly infectious before onset”.
Expanded testing capacity
Rapid screening stations have been set up in counties and cities with outbreaks, and a total of more than 27,000 people can be screened daily throughout Taiwan. Although the testing capacity has yet to be expanded, the Taiwan Epidemic Command Center hopes to quickly identify confirmed cases and interrupt the chain of infection in this wave.
Commander Chen Shih-chung said through a regular press conference: “The efficiency of screening is improved, of course, for the interruption of the chain of transmission there must be a function and effect in it. (For) Covid-19 (vaccine) (vaccination) injection …… Although we are still short of vaccine, but in the future, when the vaccine is in place step by step, we start late, but we have to fight fast to be able to make up for the window period.”
The vaccine came too late and in insufficient quantities making Taiwan’s success story of vaccination prevention thus broken. The current AZ vaccination rate in Taiwan is only about 1 percent, and the next batch of 5.05 million doses of Moderna vaccine will not arrive until June, leaving the U.S. government to coordinate the release of more vaccine. Taiwan has a long way to go before reaching the mass immunization threshold of 40% to 60% of the population.
In response to the wave of the epidemic, NTU public health professor Zhan Changquan said in an interview with the Voice of America that it is imperative to expand the amount of testing and ensure that the strained health care system does not collapse.
He said, following the experience of New York City, Taiwan’s single-day testing volume can be expanded from 10,000 to 100,000 cases, and “directionally” expand the testing of people with suspected symptoms, confirmed contacts and possible clusters of people out of the epidemic, so that the chain of infection can be quickly interrupted and the epidemic can be moderated by the end of May.
Household registration system helps find people
Wang Zhihong, an associate professor at Stanford University School of Medicine, said in an interview with the Voice of America that the most important focus of Taiwan’s fight against the epidemic at this stage is to ask people to reduce non-essential movement, but at the same time, through the health insurance system and other systems to identify contacts and expand the amount of testing to effectively contain the epidemic.
Wang Zhihong said: “Taiwan is very powerful, that is to say, (people) do not go out, but it (the authorities) can immediately track, and then the (detection) volume to do more. Because (Taiwan) has universal health insurance, also has a hukou. In the world, many countries do not have hukou, so (Taiwan) to find people relatively easy. So, whoever you come in contact with, you can immediately find and isolate him. So it’s easier to put out the fire than the United States, because the United States is unable to find people.”
Although Taiwan’s wave of the epidemic of some of the more serious illnesses, but Wang Zhihong said that forty to fifty percent of the infected are likely to be asymptomatic, so the quarantine 14 days after the “almost non-infectious”. If the chain of infection is broken, the epidemic will be under control and there will be no need to close the city.
In addition to the usual prevention methods: wear masks, wash hands more often, do not go out in groups, Wang Zhihong also said that avoiding staying in confined spaces with closed doors and windows can also significantly reduce the risk of infection. Because, according to a recent study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the new coronavirus is transmitted not only through droplets, but also through the air. Therefore, it is possible to be infected in a confined space, whether it is within a distance of six feet, or 60 feet.
Closure of the city at the end of May?
Zhan Changquan and Wang Zhihong both spoke out against universal screening in Taiwan because it is “not efficient. They said that the closure of the city should be carefully evaluated based on public sentiment, the savings rate of residents and industrial structure.
Taiwan has set a standard of “more than 100 cases per day for 14 consecutive days” to close the city. In other words, if there are still more than 100 confirmed local cases per day in the next 10 days, Northern Taiwan may have to enter a city closure at the end of May at the earliest.
But Zhan Changquan called on the Taiwanese government to dynamically review the criteria for pandemic influenza, as it does not necessarily apply to the new crown epidemic. He believes that the criteria for sealing the city for the new crown epidemic should depend on whether the health care system is facing a collapse and is more accurate.
He also said that even if Taiwan’s epidemic does not slow down, Taiwan does not necessarily have to go down the path of rigid city closure that is too costly economically. The reason is that the awareness and quality of epidemic preparedness shown by the Taiwanese people is generally higher than in other countries.
Taiwan does not necessarily need to rigidly seal the city (hard lockdown), is what you see (China) Wuhan-style (seal the city),” said Zhan Changquan. If it is more soft lockdown, that is, still maintain certain necessary (activities). For example, the matter of going to work or not, may be from (personnel) 100% to work (reduce) to 20%, that is to say, five days, the company only (maintain) one class of people to go every day, and will not be handed over, so it is also possible ah! (But) how to do (good epidemic prevention)? It is to test, to wear masks, most countries wear masks, are not as good as Taiwan (implementation).”
Taiwan people have high awareness of epidemic prevention
This weekend, as soon as the Taiwanese government announced that the cities in the Twin North had entered a three-stage alert and that non-essential gatherings of 10 people outdoors and more than five people indoors would be strictly prohibited for the next two weeks, most people had already spontaneously closed the city and reduced their performance in moving outside on the same day, making some foreign media see it as a global model.
The local government of Shuangbei went further on Monday (May 17) and announced a complete suspension of classes below high school and the adoption of distance learning until May 28. The Epidemic Command Center also followed up on Tuesday with an expanded announcement that schools at all levels across Taiwan will be completely closed simultaneously from Wednesday (May 19). In addition, foreigners without residence permits will be suspended from Wednesday until June 8.
The Taiwanese government has also made the latest adjustment to the principle of admission and treatment of confirmed patients, deciding to reserve the medical system for seriously ill patients in order to avoid a collapse of the medical system or an increase in mortality. As for asymptomatic and mild to moderate patients, they will enter a centralized quarantine or home quarantine similar to a square cabin hospital for observation. In this regard, epidemic prevention experts believe that this is the right direction, but Taiwan needs to adjust quickly and stop admitting all confirmed patients to hospitals and occupying negative pressure isolation beds.
According to the Epidemic Center, as of 9 a.m. on May 18, there were only 241 empty negative pressure isolation beds left in Taiwan’s medical institutions totaling nearly 1,000 beds.
The economic cost of the city closure is high
In response to the wave of the epidemic’s impact on Taiwan’s economy, Liu Mengjun, director of the Mainland Institute of the Chinese Academy of Economic Research, said in an interview with the Voice of America that domestic demand will be hit in the short term, but it is difficult to quantify how much the impact will be.
Liu Mengjun said, “At the moment, it looks like the bigger impact is on domestic demand. The impact of the epidemic, you can see that people are not going out to spend, (or) the attitude of consumption has become more conservative, especially in the area of tourism, tourism has the greatest impact. In other words, there are three pieces related to domestic demand: retail, wholesale and catering, should (all) will be revised downward.”
Liu Mengjun said that Taiwan’s economy last year relied on domestic demand, booming exports and Taiwan businessmen to return to Taiwan to invest in the three pillars of support, a bright 2.98% annual growth rate.
But he warned that this wave of the epidemic if it continues to worsen, or even double northern cities if they enter a state of closure, the technology research and development centers in Taipei’s Neihu District, the semiconductor and other major technology factories around the Lin Kou District in New Taipei City, as well as the production lines in the Tucheng District, where Hon Hai is located, will bear the brunt of the shutdown, which threatens to further hit Taiwan’s exports. He said, by then, Taiwan’s economic growth rate this year can still be as optimistic as expected “sit five hope six”, that is, growth of more than 5%, I am afraid to face a greater challenge.
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