While the latest census results highlight the urgency of addressing the declining population trend and the aging population, China may be cautious in easing its fertility policy so as not to affect social stability, sources were quoted as saying.
The Chinese government’s seventh census, released last week, showed that the country’s average annual population growth rate fell another 0.04 percentage point over the past decade from the previous one, the lowest rate in China in the past few decades.
China’s fertility rate has repeatedly declined in recent years, and more and more young people are choosing to marry later and have children later, or even not to marry or have children. 2020 China’s total fertility rate for women of childbearing age is 1.3, already at a low level. It is generally believed that the TFR is higher than 2.0 to reach the level of generation replacement.
China has been encouraging fertility in recent years due to the declining birth rate, and the communiqué of the fifth meeting of the 18th Communist Party Congress in 2015 stated that the policy of two children per couple will be fully implemented. But the policy change does not seem to have created much incentive for China’s childbearing population to have more children.
According to Reuters, sources said they expect Beijing to encourage more births under the current policy framework, and then fully lift the birth limit in the next 3-5 years.
Lifting birth restrictions could have unintended consequences, the sources said. Lifting the restrictions would have a limited impact on urban residents, who are reluctant to have more children because of the high cost of raising them, but rural families could expand more quickly, increasing poverty and employment pressure.
“If we liberalize the policy, people in rural areas may be more willing to have children than those in cities, and there may be other problems.” The source said.
The sources also said top government officials are working on a broader plan to address the demographic challenge, including easing the financial burden on couples, rather than simply removing birth restrictions to encourage childbearing in a more effective way.
Reuters said the sources were involved in policy discussions but would not be involved in the final decision-making process.
It is generally accepted that a country or region with a total fertility rate below 1.5 is at risk of falling into a “low-fertility trap. According to public information, the “low fertility trap” refers to the accelerated aging process of the population and the degree of childlessness that exceeds that of old age.
The head of the State Council’s Seventh National Population Census Leading Group Office said the “low fertility trap” requires two conditions to be met: one is that the total fertility rate falls below 1.5, and the other is that it needs to last for a period of time, Xinhua, the Communist Party’s official media, reported Monday.
The person in charge said, “The results of this census are the first time since the sixth national census in 2010 that China’s total fertility rate is below 1.5, and whether it will continue to be below 1.5 needs further observation.”
Liu Huan, an adviser to China’s State Council, said China’s main demographic challenge is not the size of its population but the aging of its population, which will put enormous pressure on government finances.
He told Reuters:Â “It is difficult to solve the fertility problem because of the high cost of housing, health care and education. So we should have a comprehensive policy.”
Demographer and author of “The Empty Nest in the Big Country,” Yi Fuxian said China’s increasingly old population means its ability to innovate in science and technology is deteriorating, so that predictions on all fronts will fall short. Errors in various decisions have made the Chinese government even more unpredictable.
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