In recent years, the focus of international politics has gradually shifted from Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region. China’s expansion and military actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait have raised the vigilance of Asia-Pacific countries. Major countries in the Asia-Pacific region, led by Australia, Japan and India, have begun to cooperate and ally on all fronts; Europe, at the urging of the United States, has also begun to send warships into the Asia-Pacific region in a show of Western solidarity. However, the Chinese Communist Party has not only failed to restrain itself in the face of the backlash from regional countries and the international community, but also believes that its national strength is strong enough to confront the U.S.-led allies, and its moves and willingness to prepare for war are becoming more and more obvious.
In response to such a development, what exactly should Asia-Pacific countries do to deal with the critical situation? In his new book “The Asia-Pacific Race,” senior Australian intelligence officer Rory Melkow makes four propositions that I think are quite pertinent and practical and deserve the attention of the outside world.
First, the author argues that one of the priorities in preparing for a deteriorating situation is to be proactive, and that proactivity is focused on “developing capabilities. Japan and Australia are now helping to train other nations’ coastal defense forces and providing ships for maritime surveillance and communications equipment to partner nations. Several countries, from Vietnam to Indonesia, from the Solomons to Sri Lanka, are examples of such regional cooperation to enhance national resilience.
Second, the author argues that no matter how much Japan, India and Australia have awakened and begun to prepare for war, U.S. support is still a critical factor. He suggests that the United States and all countries that support the military balance need to gain an edge in traditional military power, as well as in future technological and geo-economic resilience – the ability to resist pressure as well as exert it. They need to restore two forms of deterrence: the ability to deny the enemy profit, and the ability to return fire. This will involve maintaining a modernized military and investing in new tools of warfare, such as cyber, artificial intelligence, space, new materials, robotics, and advanced computing. As China continues to increase its military power, the United States must invest more in this area as well.
Third, the authors call for regular dialogue and a frank exchange of views among countries in the Asia-Pacific region to achieve consensus. Such a dialogue should include dialogue at the political level. The authors argue that dialogue should not stop at one or two meetings a year, but should be followed by the establishment of specific working groups between countries to provide information on issues such as intelligence and logistics to be shared among them. Countries also need to discuss and conduct operational exercises in advance for crisis scenarios.
The last point, which I think is most worthy of consideration by outsiders, is one of the most important arguments the author makes: in his view, to counterbalance Chinese power, Indo-Pacific countries must be willing to pay the price and endure short periods of suffering. This requires political willpower on the part of the leaders. This is important because in international politics, sometimes it is not only national strength that counts, but sometimes it is also the political will of the leaders that counts. Also in the Indo-Pacific region, Australia and New Zealand have very different policies in the face of China’s offensive. Australia would rather pay a certain price in the face of economic sanctions by the Chinese Communist Party than give up its adherence to its national interests and values, while New Zealand has apparently given up some of its principles in order to receive economic dividends from China. Therefore, the attitude of the political leaders of the Indo-Pacific countries is also important.
Finally, the author tells a short story in the book that I found very intriguing: when Vietnamese and Chinese coast guard vessels were pushing and ramming each other for oil and gas exploration rights in the South China Sea off the Vietnamese coastline, a Vietnamese diplomat was asked a series of questions in a meeting with foreign scholars: If his country were at war with China tomorrow, who would come to its aid? “That’s an easy answer,” the diplomat replied, unhurriedly, “the Vietnamese.” This, I think, is the best mindset for self-defense in Asia-Pacific countries.
Recent Comments