U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April, bidding farewell to the explosive 9.8% growth recorded in March. The nominal figure was 0% YoY, less than the expected 1% increase, while the core figure fell 0.8% YoY, compared to expectations for a 0.3% increase. The U.S. dollar index brushed a new daily low of 90.35, down 0.4%.
Inflation expectations soared to dampen sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index plunging to 82.8 in May from a previous value of 88.3, well below market expectations of 90. Consumer expectations for inflation in the coming year stood at 4.6%, a ten-year high.
Technology led the way as U.S. stocks rallied for two days in a row but accumulated losses for the week, with Tesla’s biggest weekly drop in three months
On Friday, May 14, the three major U.S. stock indexes rallied collectively for the second day in a row, ending the first three days of losses for the week. The Dow opened today up more than 210 points after closing more than 400 points higher yesterday, up more than 432 points or 1.3% during the day. The S&P 500, which posted its biggest gain in more than five weeks yesterday, opened 0.8 percent higher today and rose as much as 1.7 percent during the session. The Nasdaq closed up 0.7% yesterday and opened more than 1% higher today, up 2.6% intraday.
By the close, the S&P 500 index closed up 1.49% at 4173.85 points, basically recovering all the losses since Monday’s close. The Dow closed up 1.06% or 360 points at 34,382.13 points, recovering from Tuesday’s closing losses. The Nasdaq closed up 2.32% or more than 300 points at 13429.88 points, surpassing Monday’s closing point. Russell 2000 small-cap stocks closed up 2.5% again outperformed the broader market, “panic index” VIX fell more than 19% and fell below 19, basically erased all the gains this week.
But this week, U.S. stocks are tired of falling, inflation quickly scampering high fears hurt market sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 1.4% in a single week, the Dow fell 1.1% in a single week, the cumulative decline in technology stocks was particularly harsh, the Nasdaq fell more than 2.3% in a single week, the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell 2% in a single week. Review of the week, the Dow fell nearly 1200 points from Monday to Wednesday, the S&P broad market and the Nasdaq were down 4% and 5% over the same period, followed by two days of stock index rebound.
Technology stocks again led the market, FAAMNG all-star technology stocks for two consecutive days collectively higher. Facebook rose 3.5%, basically recovering the decline since May 7. Amazon rose nearly 2%, Nifty rose 1.4%, Google parent company Alphabet rose 2.2%, all basically recovered from Tuesday’s losses. Apple rose nearly 2 percent, Microsoft rose 2.1 percent, both above Monday’s closing price.
Tesla stopped its four-game losing streak and closed up more than 3 percent, with Morgan Stanley resuming coverage of the company and rating it as a hold. But Tesla has closed below $600 for three consecutive days, with shares near a two-month low and down 12% for the week, the biggest single-week drop since February.
Bullish Tesla and other innovative technology stocks, the “Queen of the Bull” Cathie Wood’s flagship fund ARKK rose 4.9%, shares returned to the top of $100, Thursday had fallen below this mark and hit a six-month low.
Chip stocks rallied. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3%, up two days in a row and higher than Monday’s closing price, forcing the 3,000-point mark, but the week’s cumulative decline of 4.2%. TSMC rose more than 3%, Intel, Qualcomm, AMD rose more than 2%, Nvidia rose more than 4%, all recovering most of the losses since Monday.
Blockchain stocks rose collectively as bitcoin returned to $50,000, with Renren up nearly 36%, Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain up over 17%, Ninth City and Yibang International up over 14%, Jia Nan Cai Zhi up over 11%, and Xunlei up over 9%.
Stocks closely related to the reopening of the economy surged for the second day in a row as the CDC relaxed its guidelines on wearing masks for those fully vaccinated. United Airlines and American Airlines rose more than 5%, Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line rose more than 8%. Energy stocks were also up, with Mobil and Chevron Oil both up more than 2 percent.
Other stocks with big changes include.
DoorDash tripled its quarterly revenue, showing continued market demand for food delivery services in the post-epidemic era, rising nearly 22% today to the highest since April 30. Airbnb closed up more than 4% in the first quarter after beating revenue estimates as U.S. tourism began to recover. Disney closed down 2.6% to the lowest since Feb. 1 after unexpectedly missing expectations for streaming subscribers by more than 5% in the first quarter. Square closed up over 5%, still near yearly lows, after media said it has no intention of buying more bitcoin following a $20 million loss. Goldman Sachs upgraded cloud infrastructure provider Snowflake to Hold from Neutral, with the latter up more than 11%. Retail-favorite AMC Theatres, which rose more than 12% at one point earlier in the year, closed up 1.6% and rose for six straight days, the longest streak in nearly two years.
Top Chinese stocks rose across the board, with the China Internet ETF up 3.5%; Waterdrop rose more than 16%, Tiger Securities rose more than 14%, highway, beeping, Dada rose more than 10%, Xiaopeng car rose more than 9%.
European stocks rallied together with global stock markets, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 1.19% and driven by cyclical industries, automotive stocks led by a 1.9% gain, banking stocks in Commerzbank 3% rise led by the general rise, basic resources is the only declining sectors and fell 1%. Europe’s major national stock indexes closed higher, Germany, France, Britain and Italy stock indexes were up more than 1%.
European stocks were mixed this week. Europe STOXX 600 index fell 0.54%, Germany DAX 30 index rose 0.11%, France CAC 40 index fell 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.21%, Italy FTSE MIB index rose 0.63%. In addition, the ICE EU carbon emissions trading permits (futures prices) rose nearly 4% today to a new record high, up about 12.06% for the week.
Analysis pointed out that this week, the market fluctuated sharply due to inflationary fears, on the one hand, worried about the higher prices of commodities and other raw materials will erode corporate profitability, but also fear that consumer prices rose too high will make the Federal Reserve tighten monetary policy in advance.
But judging from Friday’s action, the market refocused on the benefits of the economy opening up again rather than the negative impact of inflation, which will push value stocks higher. Several Fed officials this week have repeatedly reiterated the need to watch employment and inflation data for several more months to determine when to start tightening policy. However, several analysts said that rising volatility will be the main feature of the U.S. stock market in a few months.
European and U.S. Treasuries rally as 10-year U.S. bond yields fall below 1.63% but rise overall in a single week
Due to poor U.S. retail sales data for April, the 10-year U.S. bond yield dipped as deep as 4.3 basis points during Friday’s session to a daily low of 1.625%, retreating from a five-week high set on Thursday, still above last weekend’s 1.576%, having regained 1.70% yesterday.
Yields on major European countries’ government bonds were mostly lower today. 10-year German bond yields were down 1 bps intraday, up 8.6 bps for the week, while 10-year British bond yields were down 4 bps intraday, but Italian and Greek base bond yields turned up more than 1 bps.
Poor retail sales depressed the dollar, bitcoin once rose above 51,000, ethereum jumped 10% dogcoin surged 43%
The ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.5% during the day to a daily low of 90.28, giving back gains since Wednesday due to poor U.S. economic data. The euro returned above 1.21 against the dollar, and the pound rose above 1.41 against the dollar at one point. analysis said that the pound rose 0.5% this week, thanks to the strong economic recovery expected and the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to materialize.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, returned above $50,000, surpassing $51,000 at one point, having fallen below the $50,000 and $49,000 hurdles and total market capitalization below $1 trillion yesterday. Bitcoin fell more than 12 percent this week as Tesla stopped accepting its payments. After the U.S. stock market, bitcoin fell below the $50,000 mark again and turned lower within 24 hours.
Ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose more than 10% in 24 hours, significantly outpacing bitcoin’s more than 2% gain, with the price regaining $4,000 and once surpassing $4,100. According to CoinMarketCap, mainstream cryptocurrencies rose in 24 hours, with dogcoin, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, surging more than 43%, related to Tesla CEO Musk’s renewed comments in support of dogcoin.
Gold futures up two weeks in a row forcing three-month highs, copper down three days in a row, iron ore deepest two-day drop in two years
COEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1838.10 per ounce on Friday, up two days in a row and hit a three-month closing high since Feb. 10, up about 0.4% for the week and up two weeks in a row.
Spot gold rose nearly $16 or 0.9% during the day, the daily high of $1842, back to a one-week high, but also close to the highest in three months. Spot silver rose as high as 1.4% to a daily high of nearly $27.50, after pushing down to the $27 mark yesterday.
Analysts say poor retail data may send gold prices up to the $1,850 resistance level, and today’s drop in U.S. bond yields and the dollar also favor gold prices. Although there will be short-term consolidation, gold prices face upside risks in the coming year, supported by both the dovish Fed and higher inflation expectations.
London base metals futures mostly closed higher, after yesterday’s two-day collective decline for the first time in more than two months. But copper fell for a third straight day on Friday, closing down $102 to $10,240 a tonne, closing above $10,000 for the seventh straight day but retreating from the all-time high set during the week. Copper prices recorded their first one-week decline since April, analysts said.
Domestic black futures fell across the board overnight, with hot coils down 4.79%, threads and power coal down more than 3% and coke down more than 2%. Chemicals in general, asphalt rose more than 5%, hot coils fell 4.8%. Iron ore futures fell to a new record high, the largest two-day decline since 2019.
Friday day trading, black futures had set off a tide of losses, iron ore, Zheng coal, wire rod, hot rolls, threads were down, power coal fell nearly 8%, coke fell more than 6%. On the news, the Tangshan City Field Supervision Bureau and other three departments to talk to the city’s steel producers, requiring conscientious maintenance of market price order. However, this year, domestic commodity futures continued to move higher, rebar, iron ore, hot coils, wire rod, coking coal, glass futures of the main contract prices previously all hit a record high.
Risk appetite rebound, international oil prices rose more than 2% intraday and a single week cumulative rise
WTI June crude oil futures closed up $1.55, or 2.43%, at $65.37/barrel on Friday, up 0.72% for the week. Brent July crude oil futures closed up $1.66, or 2.47%, at $68.71/barrel, up 0.63% for the week.
U.S. oil WTI rose as high as $1.58 or 2.5% during the day, breaking through two integer levels of $64 and $65 in quick succession. International Brent intraday most high up $1.68 or up 2.5%, back above $ 68 and approaching $ 69. And both oil prices fell more than 3% on Thursday, stopping a four-game winning streak and hitting a two-week low and the biggest drop in more than five weeks.
Analysis pointed out that Friday’s rebound in oil prices mainly due to the stock market rose to boost overall risk appetite, as well as the dollar weakened favorable commodities. But India and other major oil-consuming countries, the new crown epidemic remains high to limit the oil price rally. According to Deutche Bank, the unsuccessful move up to $70 for BSE may trigger a sell-off by speculators, while the supply shortage from the suspension of U.S. Colonial Pipeline operations is dissipating.
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