The delayed release of the 2020 Chinese census data has sparked speculation. Chinese population experts believe that the household population is about 150 million water, while economists are worried that the long-term misrepresentation of population data will cause a break in many indicators, including the country’s industry and GDP.
China’s census data, which was scheduled to be released in April, has not yet been released. The Financial Times recently cited sources familiar with the matter as saying that China’s total population will not exceed 1.4 billion. The newspaper quoted a Beijing government adviser as saying that localities are overestimating population figures in order to get more financial resources.
Yi Fuxian, an expert on China’s population and author of “The Empty Nest”, tweeted on May 7 that China’s population figures have a big impact on the whole body, and that if the population figures shrink, social, economic, educational and defense data will have to be adjusted, and if the data do not fit together, it will cause public pressure.
Independent mainland economist Gong Shengli believes that there is a lot of water in China’s population data, which has become a huge problem.
Independent mainland economist Gong Shengli: “Now China, the gap between the population announced by the state and its actual population is too big. It’s a tragedy to have a population figure that has a lot of water in it, and there is no way for this country’s figures and data to truly reflect the country that was built over 70 years ago.”
The Communist Party’s central bank recently released a report predicting that China’s total fertility rate, the average number of children born to women, is expected to be less than 1.5, less than the official estimate of 1.8, with central bank officials admitting that “China’s overestimation of the fertility rate is almost a fact.”
Yi Fu-hsien, for his part, posted that Chinese demographers, the National Family Planning Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics have falsified population data time and time again. He predicts that there is a watering down of about 150 million people in the household registration population.
Independent mainland economist Gong Shengli: “What about this empty population? How can these data fulfill the national target? So its GDP, and all its national data may be left hanging, an emerging economic crisis, if these data are empty, and with its published data, and its original data, produced such a large gap, it is very, very scary.”
Gong Shengli questioned that the crisis of China’s population data will bring about an emerging economic crisis, including railroad construction, currency issuance, GDP and other kinds of data, all of which will be left hanging and lacking a basis.
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